景気後退

(Jun. 17, 2008) The Yomiuri Shimbun

Looming economic crisis needs flexible response

月例経済報告　景気後退への警戒を怠るな（6月17日付・読売社説）

(loom=ぼんやりと見えてくる、ぬっとあらわれる)

The belated recovery from the bursting of the economic bubble of the 1980s and 1990s, which has been the nation's longest period of sustained growth since the end of World War II, appears to have at last coasted into the start of an economic slowdown.

In its monthly report for June, the government downgraded its assessment of the nation's economy. While maintaining its view that the economic recovery appears to be pausing, it also added that trends indicating weakness have been seen recently.

戦後最長を更新中の景気回復が、いよいよ後退局面入りの瀬戸際に立たされたようだ。

政府は６月の月例経済報告で、景気認識を示す基調判断を下方修正した。「景気回復は足踏み状態にある」との判断を維持しつつ、「このところ一部に弱い動きがみられる」と付け加えた。

(belated=遅れた、手遅れの) (coast=海岸沿いを航行する)

The government's analysis indicates that the nation's economic growth has been leveling off, that the economy is unsteady and it is unclear when the situation will improve. The government and the Bank of Japan must be vigilant against an economic slowdown.

「踊り場」を歩く景気の足元がふらつき、再び上昇できるか怪しくなってきたということだろう。政府・日銀は、景気後退への警戒を怠ってはならない。

In mid-June, finance ministers from the Group of Eight countries, in a joint statement, warned that the future of the global economy is uncertain and elevated commodities prices, especially of crude oil and food, "pose a serious challenge to stable growth worldwide."

主要８か国（Ｇ８）財務相会合の共同声明は、世界経済の先行きは不確実で、原油・食料の高騰が「世界の安定成長に重大な試練を提起」していると警告した。

（pose=難問で当惑させる）

The global economy is facing a risk of economic downturn and inflation at the same time.

世界経済は景気悪化とインフレが同時進行するリスクにさらされている。

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Rising costs, falling profits

（高まるコスト、利益減）

Japan is not an exception. Rising costs for raw materials, such as crude oil, are eating into the profits of corporations that have been leading the Japanese economy. Even if raw material costs rise, they are unable to easily hike retail prices for fear of a possible drop in sales.

日本も例外ではない。原油などの原材料高は、日本経済を引っ張ってきた企業収益を圧迫している。原材料が高騰しても、売り上げの減少が心配で簡単には小売価格を値上げできないのだ。

(eat into=食い荒らす、食い散らかす)

The monthly report also noted signs of exports weakening. Exports to other Asian countries, which have been rapidly increasing in volume, are hitting a peak. As stocks of electronic components, including semiconductors, increase, moves are afoot to reduce production in Japan.

輸出も減速している。急ピッチで増えていたアジア向けの輸出も頭打ちになってきた。半導体など電子部品の在庫が増え、国内生産を抑える動きも出ている。

(afoot=進行中で、起きて、動いて)

Due to the influence of rising prices for gasoline and food, personal consumption has begun to decline. Sales at supermarkets and department stores have dropped sharply in the last few months.

ガソリンや食料品の価格上昇のあおりを受けて、消費者心理も冷え込んできた。スーパーや百貨店の売り上げは最近、急激に落ち込んでいる。

Gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 4 percent in real terms in the three months through March. But many private sector economists predict that GDP growth in the April-June quarter will be around zero or even fall below zero.

１～３月期の国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）実質成長率は年率換算で前期比４・０％の高い伸びだった。しかし、民間エコノミストの多くは、４～６月期にはゼロ近辺かマイナスに落ち込むと予想する。

Another factor is the growing fear of a simultaneous economic slowdown and rise in prices.

日本でも景気減速と物価上昇が同時進行する懸念は、一段と強まっている。

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Handcuffed on monetary policy

（金融引締め）

There is little room for bolstering the economy by relaxing monetary policy given the low-interest-rate policy already in place. In addition, the nation has a huge deficit to deal with, making it difficult to increase public spending on economic pump-priming measures. If inflation spreads further, it will become more difficult for the government to come out with concrete measures against it.

低金利が続く日本は、金融緩和による景気てこ入れの余地が乏しい。巨額の財政赤字を抱えており、財政出動も難しい。物価高が広がってくれば、政策対応はさらに困難になろう。

(pump-priming=景気にてこ入れする、景気を高揚させる) (come out with=～に対して対処する、行動する、行動を開始する)

The lack of a unified approach to economic policy among Japan, Europe and the United States also could become a destabilizing factor for the global economy. The European Central Bank is positive about a rise in interest rates in order to avoid inflation. But the United States is not in a position to raise interest rates due to its fear of financial system crash caused by the subprime mortgage crisis.

日米欧の政策協調をめぐる不協和音も波乱要因となる。欧州中央銀行（ＥＣＢ）はインフレ防止のための利上げに前向きだ。しかし、サブプライムローン問題で金融システムに不安を抱える米国は利上げしにくい状況にある。

（subprime mortgage crisis=サブプライムローンが引き起こした破壊的局面、状況、サブプライム問題）

If they fail to take concerted action, there is no denying that the disharmony could invite worldwide market trouble.

協調の足並みが乱れれば、世界的な市場の混乱を招く可能性も否定できない。

(concerted=一致団結した、共同による、協力しあった) (disharmony=不調和､不協和､不協調)

Given the unpredictable economic situation, it is important to react flexibly and come out with measures to mitigate the impact of any economic downturn.

景気が予断を許さぬ状況では、衝撃を和らげる施策を機動的に打ち出せるかどうかが重要だ。

(unpredictable=予想できない、予言、予報、予測、予知出来ない) (flexibly=柔軟な、順応性のある)

(mitigate=軽減する、軽くする、緩和する)

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, June 17, 2008)

（2008年6月17日01時48分  読売新聞）