消費者物価

(Jul. 26, 2008) The Yomiuri Shimbun

Latest CPI figure leaves govt, BOJ in policy bind

消費者物価　景気もインフレも要警戒だ（7月26日付・読売社説）

Surging oil and food prices worldwide have pushed the nation's consumer price index to a worryingly high level.

世界的な原油と穀物価格の高騰を背景に、国内の消費者物価も警戒水位に達したようだ。

Stagflation--in which an economy experiences inflation and stagnation at the same time--appears to be becoming a reality. The government and the Bank of Japan should therefore take even greater care over how they manage policy.

物価上昇と景気悪化が同時進行するスタグフレーションが現実味を帯びている。政府・日銀は、一段と注意深い政策運営が求められよう。

For June, the core CPI, which excludes perishable foods, rose for the ninth consecutive month on a year-on-year basis, jumping 1.9 percent for the period. Excluding periods when prices rose following a consumption tax hike, the latest figure is the highest in 15-1/2 years. Meanwhile, the index that includes perishable foods showed a 2 percent increase for the first time in almost 16 years.

６月の全国消費者物価指数は９か月連続で上昇し、前年同月比の伸び率が１・９％に達した。消費税率引き上げで物価がかさ上げされた時期を除くと、１５年半ぶりの高い伸びだ。生鮮食品を含めた指数は、ほぼ１６年ぶりに２％の上昇率を記録した。

perishable=腐りやすい perishable foods=生鮮食料品

With sharp increases in the prices of imported raw materials such as crude oil, wheat and soybeans, prices of kerosene, gasoline and other oil products, as well as spaghetti, instant noodles, cooking oil and other food products have soared by 20 percent to 40 percent on the previous year.

原油や小麦、大豆など、海外から輸入した原材料の急騰を受け、灯油やガソリンなどの石油製品のほか、スパゲティ、即席めん、食用油などの食品が、前年より２～４割も値上がりしている。

The latest CPI reading was near the upper limit of the zero to 2 percent range considered desirable by the central bank, though the July figure, which is expected to show further increases, could exceed this level.

消費者物価は、日銀が望ましい上昇率の目安としている「０～２％」の上限に張り付き、７月はさらに上昇が見込まれる。

Consumption has been hit as rising prices for daily necessities deal a further blow to household budgets that are suffering from sluggish wages.

賃金が伸び悩んでいる家計に、生活必需品の値上がりが追い打ちをかけ、消費は冷え込んでいる。

sluggish=活気のない、停滞気味の

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Heading toward recession?

（不景気への道）

Meanwhile, the deteriorating business performance of companies as a result of higher costs and the slowing U.S. economy also is a matter of serious concern. The nation's economy, which had seen growth plateau, is now on the brink of recession.

コスト高や米景気の減速による企業業績の悪化も深刻だ。「踊り場」で何とか踏みとどまってきた景気は、後退局面入りの瀬戸際に立たされている。

deteriorating=悪化した plateau=高原、台地／安定期／景気の停滞状態 on the brink of recession=景気後退への瀬戸際

Even if the inflation rate slightly exceeds the central bank's target, it would not be appropriate for the bank to raise interest rates in response.

今後、物価上昇率が日銀の目安を多少超えたとしても、インフレ防止のための「利上げ路線」に転換できる状況ではない。

For the time being, there is no choice but to maintain a neutral stance that does not lean toward rate hikes or cuts.

当面は、利上げにも利下げにも偏らない「中立路線」を維持するしかあるまい。

lean=寄りかかる、偏る、傾く rate hikes or cuts=利上げ又は利下げ

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Foreign complications

（複雑な外の事情）

The European Central Bank earlier this month decided to raise interest rates as eurozone inflation hit 4 percent. Even in the United States, where policymakers have now stopped cutting interest rates, there is speculation the Federal Reserve Board will start to hike rates.

一方、欧州中央銀行（ＥＣＢ）は７月、域内の物価上昇率が４％に達したことを受けて利上げに踏み切った。現在は利下げを休止している米国でも、利上げ観測が浮上し始めている。

With demand sluggish, Japan has yet to overcome deflationary pressures. But if both the United States and European Central Bank set off on a course of rate hikes, the Bank of Japan will find it even more difficult to conduct monetary policy.

ただ、日本は国内需要の低迷でデフレからまだ脱却していない。米欧とも利上げ路線を取り始めたら、日銀の金融政策のかじ取りはさらに難しさを増すだろう。

The challenges of rising oil prices and confusion in financial and capital markets cannot be tackled by a single nation.

原油高や金融資本市場の混乱など、世界的な課題は、一国では解決できない。

Governments should first move to stem flows of speculative money, which are pushing up oil and grain prices irrespective of demand.

まず、原油や穀物の価格を、実際の需要以上につり上げている投機マネーの暴走に、歯止めをかける必要がある。

irrespective=無関係に、かかわりなく

The United States, home to a number of speculative funds, is reluctant to introduce regulations to stop them. But the adverse effects of speculative money flows have seriously shaken the real global economy.

投機的ファンドを多く抱える米国は、規制などに消極的だが、投機の弊害は実体経済を大きく揺さぶっている。

the real global economy=世界の実体経済

The Japanese government, in cooperation with European authorities, must put more pressure on the United States to ensure that action is taken to strengthen supervision over, and regulations aimed at, speculative market players.

日本政府は欧州と協力し、投機筋に対する監視や規制の強化に向けて各国が行動するよう、米国にもっと強く迫るべきだ。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, July 26, 2008)

（2008年7月26日01時45分  読売新聞）