地価下落

(Sep. 19, 2008) The Yomiuri Shimbun
Land price mini bubble beginning to burst
基準地価　ミニバブル崩壊が始まった（9月19日付・読売社説）

A mini bubble in land prices that has formed in the past few years in the country's larger cities appears set to burst.
　大都市でこの数年続いていた地価のミニバブルが、いよいよ崩壊しつつあるようだ。

This is in part a consequence of the turmoil from the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis that has been pummeling the global economy.
　世界経済に打撃を与えているサブプライムローン問題などが背景にある。

Once land prices in Tokyo and other major cities--which are leading indicators for land prices in other parts of the country--begin to fall, it will significantly affect land prices nationwide. Therefore, movements in land prices in major cities need to be closely watched.
　地価の先行指標とされる東京などで本格的な下落が始まれば、全国的に大きな影響を与える。今後、大都市の地価動向を注視する必要があろう。

According to a survey released by the Construction and Transport Ministry on Thursday, the nationwide average price for residential land declined 1.2 percent in the year to July from the previous year, while commercial land prices fell 0.8 percent.
　国土交通省が発表した今年７月１日時点の都道府県地価（基準地価）は、全国の住宅地で前年比１・２％、商業地で０・８％、それぞれ下落した。

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Downward trend continues

In the previous four years, the rate at which land values were falling was slowing, but this year the pace of decline again picked up. Last year saw the first increase in 16 years for the price of commercial land, but this year prices again were falling.
　昨年は、住宅地で４年連続して下落幅が縮小していたが、今年はそれが拡大した。商業地は昨年、１６年ぶりに値上がりに転じたが、今年は再び水面下に沈んだ。

It was surprising that the recovery in land prices in the three metropolitan regions lost steam. Average residential land prices in the three metropolitan regions of Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya saw a 1.4 percent increase. Last year the increase was 4 percent. The commercial land price average in the areas marked a 3.3 percent rise against a 10.4 percent gain a year earlier.
　３大都市圏の地価回復にブレーキがかかったのが響いた。３大都市圏平均で昨年は、住宅が４・０％、商業地で１０・４％の上昇だったが、今年は１・４％と３・３％の上昇に減速した。

The most conspicuous of all changes was in the land prices in Tokyo's 23 wards.
The residential land price average in Minato Ward dropped 2.3 percent this year compared with a 24.1 percent rise the previous year. In Shibuya Ward, it declined 3.7 percent against a 23.3 percent increase the previous year. Commercial areas in these wards saw similar changes.
　なかでも、東京都区部の動きが目を引く。住宅地で昨年２４・１％も上昇した港区が今年は２・３％の下落に転じた。同じく２３・３％の上昇だった渋谷区も、３・７％値下がりした。商業地でも似たような状況である。

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Devil's in the details

Further detailed analyses throw into sharp relief the clear setback in land prices.
　さらに詳しく分析すると、地価反落の様子が鮮明だ。

Land prices in a residential area in Tokyo's Roppongi district rose 7.3 percent in the latter half of 2007 from the previous six months, but dropped 6.8 percent in the first half of this year. Twelve of the 15 residential areas surveyed in Tokyo dropped in the first half of this year.
　この１年間を半年ごとに区切って調べたところ、港区六本木のある住宅地は、昨年後半は７・３％上昇したのに、今年前半は６・８％の下落だ。調査対象の都内の住宅地１５地点で、今年前半に下落したのが１２地点もある。

Among commercial areas, land prices in one location in Ebisu, Shibuya Ward, increased 10 percent in the latter half of 2007, but declined 6.7 percent in the first half of this year. Among the 29 locations surveyed in Tokyo, land prices for 13 of them fell in the first half of this year while nine were virtually unchanged.
　商業地では、渋谷区恵比寿のある地点が、昨年後半は１０・０％値上がりしたのに対し、今年前半は６・７％値下がりした。調査対象の都内２９地点のうち、今年前半に下落したのは１３地点で、横ばいだったのが９地点だった。

Over the past few years land prices have jumped as much as 30 percent to 40 percent each year in many locations in central Tokyo. But the latest survey found that these areas in particular had the greatest slide. It is obvious the downward trend is accelerating this year.
　東京都心ではここ数年、年率３０～４０％も値上がりした地点が少なくない。今回はそうした地点ほど値下がりに転じており、今年に入って下落傾向に拍車がかかっていることが見て取れる。

One of the causes for the decline is that an excessive rise in land prices in prime locations has made it difficult for real estate investment there to be profitable, which has in turn held back such investment.
　優良地の地価が上がり過ぎて収益が得にくくなり、投資が手控えられたのが値下がりの要因だ。

Another factor is that many foreign investment funds have withdrawn investments in Japan due to the U.S. subprime loan fiasco.
　サブプライムローン問題の影響で、海外の投資ファンドが日本から資金を引き揚げていることも影響している。

Land prices have begun to drop in other countries as well. And we must brace ourselves for even greater downturns in land prices here.
　世界的にみて、地価は多くの国で値下がりに転じている。日本でも今後、下落傾向がさらに強まると覚悟せねばなるまい。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Sept. 19, 2008)
（2008年9月19日01時47分  読売新聞）