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2008年10月28日 (火)

全治3年の発想

(Mainichi Japan) October 27, 2008

Aso invokes Takeo Fukuda's 'three-year complete cure' plan for economy

近聞遠見:福田赳をまねた「全治3年」=岩見隆夫

The grievous cries of businessmen are being heard more often. Last week, at a study meeting in Yokohama held under the auspices of the Tokyo Regional Taxation Bureau, the proprietors of companies in the high-frequency-wave product business made their voices heard.

 企業人の悲痛な叫びを聞くことが多くなった。今週、横浜で開かれた東京国税局管内法人会役員研修会での雑談で、高周波関連企業の経営者が訴えるのである。

"For (Prime Minister Taro) Aso to put on an optimistic face gives us encouragement. However, at this rate, from the end of the year to the beginning of next, we small and medium-sized companies will begin to drop like flies," warned the proprietors.

 「麻生(太郎・首相)さんが明るく振る舞うのは励みになる。しかし、いまのままでは、この年末から来年にかけ、私たち中小企業はばたばた倒れますよ。

"Aso has been talking up a complete cure after several years, and large corporations should be able to hold out. However, in the event that they are completely cured, if the small and medium-sized companies disappear, large corporations would screech to a halt. Large corporations can't get by without their small and medium subcontractors. That point should not be forgotten."

 全治何年とか麻生さんは言ってるが、大企業は持ちこたえるでしょう。だけどかりに全治しても、中小企業が消えていたら大企業は立ち往生です。下請けの中小がなくては大企業は成り立たない。そのことを忘れてはいかん」

Since taking office, Prime Minister Aso has repeatedly talked about a three-year complete cure for the economy. In his first policy speech, he said, "It will take about three years for the outlook to clear up. I will say that a complete cure for the Japanese economy will take three years. Japan will re-emerge in three years. I believe that this is something we have to do," said Aso, as he rattled off a succession of "threes." Is there a special hope of success attached to three years?

 麻生首相は就任以来、経済の、 <全治3年> を繰り返してきた。初の所信表明演説では、「めどをつけるには、大体3年。日本経済は全治3年、と申し上げます。3年で、日本は脱皮できる。せねばならぬと信じるものであります」 と述べ、<3>の数字を連発した。3年という期間に特別の成算があるのか。

The significance of the "three-year complete cure" plan that Aso espouses is revealed in the article that he wrote as prime minister for the November issue of Bungei Shunju magazine.

 <全治3年>の真意を、麻生は首相の肩書で執筆した論文(「文芸春秋」11月号)に記している。

In November 1973, in the midst of the tumultuous price rises following the first oil shock, then Finance Minister Takeo Fukuda, who was a member of the Tanaka Cabinet, coined the "three-year complete cure" catchphrase.

 1973年11月、第1次石油ショック後の狂乱物価のさなか、福田赳夫蔵相が掲げた標語が<全治3年>だった。田中政権下である。

After Finance Minister Kiichi Aichi died suddenly, Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka asked his political rival Fukuda to succeed Aichi. Before accepting the post, Fukuda asked Tanaka, "What do you think messed up the management of the economy?"

 愛知揆一蔵相が心労で急死し、田中角栄首相は政敵の福田に、「あとを引き受けてほしい」と頼む。福田は受ける前に、「経済の運営がめちゃくちゃになった根源は何だと思うか」と田中に問うた。

Tanaka replied, "It is because of the oil shock ..."

 「石油ショックでこうなって……」

"That's not the case," retorted Fukuda. "Prices have been going up and up because of your plan to remodel the Japanese archipelago, and the international balance of payments has gone haywire. The oil shock was the final blow. Things can't be fixed unless you change your thinking on the ultra-high-speed growth that would accompany the remodeling of the archipelago"

Fukuda had essentially asked Tanaka to take down his "remodel the archipelago" banner. Tanaka was reluctant, but the following morning he told Fukuda, "I will withdraw my plan. You won't hear a peep from me on the economy. I'll leave it up to you," and Fukuda became finance minister.

 「そうじゃない。あんたが掲げた日本列島改造論で物価は暴騰に次ぐ暴騰、国際収支が大混乱に陥っている。石油ショックは追い打ちだ。列島改造の超高度成長的な考え方を改めない限り、修復はできない」 と列島改造の旗を降ろすよう求めた。田中は渋り、翌朝、「撤回する。経済についてはひと言も言わない。任せる」と答えて、福田蔵相が生まれる、という経緯があった。

Fukuda told the nation, "This time it won't be easy. A complete cure takes three years. All of you will have to show considerable perseverance."

At the time, Aso was the 33-year-old manager of a cement company. "We were being squeezed by soaring raw materials costs and personnel costs but plunged ahead with new plant investment. Everybody had an opposing view, so Finance Minister Fukuda's bold 'three-year complete cure' catchphrase gave us the green light to go forward," Aso writes in the article that explains why he is rolling out Fukuda's catchphrase again.

 このとき、福田は、「今回は簡単ではない。全治3年。みなさんにこの際、相当我慢してもらわなくてはならない」と繰り返し国民に訴えた。当時、麻生はセメント会社の若き経営者、33歳だ。<原材料費や人件費の沸騰に苦しみつつも、新規の設備投資に踏み切ったときだ。周囲は反対意見ばかりだったから、福田蔵相の力強い「全治3年」の標語はまさに力水のように聞こえた>と福田標語を再使用した心境を先の論文に書いている。

But the "three-year complete cure" that Fukuda attempted 35 years ago was a contractionary demand management policy based on fiscal restraint, so corporations could not look forward to rapid growth, and households had to scrimp on consumption.

 だが、同じ<全治3年>でも、35年前に福田が採用したのは総需要管理政策で、財政を抑え、企業は高い成長を期待せず、家庭も消費を控えめに、という緊縮的なものだった。

Fukuda later said, "The nation was very cooperative, three years passed, and by the fourth year, the Japanese economy had recovered and was running normally." Fukuda himself became prime minister three years after his "three-year complete cure" declaration.

 「国民もよく協力してくれて、3年が経過し、4年目ぐらいから日本経済は大体正常運転ができるまで回復した」とあとで福田は語っている。福田自身も<全治3年>宣言からちょうど3年目、首相に就任した。

So what measures will Aso, who advocates an expansionary policy, adopt? Will his "three-year complete cure" plan bear fruit? In his article, Aso is critical of all administrations since the bubble burst in 1993 (with the exception of the Koizumi administration), and boasts, "I will not repeat their failures. I have the experience in the art of persuasion and the knowledge to reach realistic and optimum conclusions."

 さて、積極派の麻生はどんな手を打つのか。<3年>の借用が生きてくるのか。麻生は先の論文で、バブル崩壊の93年以降の歴代政権に批判(小泉政権だけは評価)を加えながら、<その愚を私は繰り返さない。私には現実的に最適な結論を得るための説得の経験と知恵がある> と自負した。

For the time being, let's sit back and watch him strut his stuff.

(By Takao Iwami, Adviser to the Mainichi Shimbun Editorial Division)

しばらくは、お手並み拝見といこう。

毎日新聞 20081025日 東京朝刊

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