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2008年11月18日 (火)

GDP速報

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Nov. 18, 2008)

Govt must address economic contraction

GDP速報 マイナス成長が促す軌道修正(1118日付・読売社説)

As the nation's economy contracted for the second consecutive quarter, the government acknowledged the nation has already entered a recessionary phase.

 経済成長率が2四半期連続でマイナスとなり、政府は日本経済がすでに景気後退局面に入っていることを認めた。

The government's prediction of a real 1.3 percent expansion in gross domestic product for this fiscal year now appears unlikely to be achieved. The annual economic growth rate may fall into negative territory for the first time in seven years.

 実質1・3%成長を見込む今年度の政府経済見通しの達成は絶望的となり、7年ぶりのマイナス成長も視野に入った。

The government must rework its economic and fiscal strategy on the assumption that tax revenues will fall because of stagnant growth.

 政府は、低成長による税収減を前提に、経済・財政運営の戦略を練り直さねばなるまい。

A preliminary report released Monday by the Cabinet Office showed that annualized real GDP fell 0.4 percent in the July-September period from the previous quarter. This marks the first instance of consecutive quarters of economic contraction since 2001 when the information technology-led bubble collapsed.

 7~9月期の国内総生産(GDP)実質成長率は、年率換算の前期比でマイナス0・4%だった。連続のマイナス成長は、ITバブルが崩壊した2001年以来のことである。

Foreign demand, upon which the economy had relied, fell. Domestic demand, including consumption and capital investment, was insufficient to make up for the plunge in foreign demand.

 頼みの海外需要が落ち込み、それを消費や設備投資などの国内需要でカバーできなかった。

Consumer spending, the pillar of domestic demand, did not increase much over the last quarter despite increases in the sales of large screen TVs and air conditioners thanks to the Beijing Olympics and the hot summer.

 内需の柱である個人消費は、北京五輪や夏の猛暑で、大型テレビやエアコンの売れ行きが増加する“特需”があった割には、大きく伸びなかった。

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Economic domino effect

Taking into account that compensation of employees, an indicator of workers' income, declined for the second consecutive quarter, it is only natural that people held their purse strings tightly.

 労働者の収入を示す雇用者報酬が2期連続で減少したことを考えれば、家計が財布のひもを固くしたのも当然だろう。

Business sentiment also cooled further. Investment in plants and equipment, which is closely connected with future production, decreased for the third consecutive quarter. The margin of decline also has been expanding.

 企業心理も一段と冷え込んだ。将来の生産につながる設備投資は3期連続のマイナスで、しかも落ち込み幅の拡大が続いている。

Exports that sharply dropped in the April-June quarter made only a modest recovery in the July-September period, hampered by the appreciation of the yen and the deterioration of foreign economies.

 前期に急減した輸出も、円高や海外景気の悪化を背景に回復は緩やかだった。

Japan, the European Union and the United States marked a simultaneous economic contraction in the July-September period. A worldwide recession looks even more apparent. As the chances of a recovery led by foreign demand is not promising, the nation's economic prospects are quite gloomy.

 7~9月期は、日米欧がそろってマイナス成長となり、世界同時不況の様相は一段と強まった。外需頼みの回復は望めず、先行きは厳しい。

The impact of turbulent financial markets and slowdowns in foreign economies, the start of which was marked by the failure of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. of the United States, likely will become more apparent from now on.

 米リーマン・ブラザーズの破綻(はたん)をきっかけとした金融市場の混乱や海外経済失速の影響が顕在化するのは、むしろこれからだ。

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Any and all means available

At a summit meeting of the Group of 20 industrialized and emerging economies held over the weekend in Washington, world leaders agreed that each nation must tackle the financial crisis using all available means, including monetary policy and fiscal measures to stimulate domestic demand.

 先週末からワシントンで開かれた20か国・地域(G20)の金融サミットは、各国が「適切な金融政策」や「財政による内需刺激」など、あらゆる政策を駆使して危機に対応する方針で合意した。

The government and the Bank of Japan have a commitment to the international community to employ every possible measure to prevent the economic downturn from being prolonged and becoming even more serious.

 景気の悪化を「長く」「深く」しないため、政府・日銀が政策を総動員することは、いわば国際公約と言える。

The government should first hurry to implement an additional stimulus package worth 27 trillion yen and consider whether it is necessary to take further steps.

 まずは、27兆円規模の追加景気対策の実現を急ぎ、追加措置の必要性も検討すべきである。

The government's revenues are likely to drop sharply because of decreases in corporate tax revenues among other factors. The government is unlikely to achieve its goal of getting the primary balance into the black by fiscal 2011.

 一方、景気悪化による法人税収の減少などで、今年度は大幅な歳入不足が確実だ。2011年度に基礎的財政収支を黒字化する財政健全化目標は達成できまい。

It is time for the government to revise its plans and work toward a realistic goal that matches the actual economic situation and consider ways to boost the economy and secure revenue sources for social security in the future.

 そろそろ経済の実情に沿う現実的な目標に仕切り直したうえで、景気対応や将来の社会保障財源について考えるべきではないか。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Nov. 18, 2008)

200811180241  読売新聞)

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