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2008年12月 8日 (月)

印パ関係―核保有国の対立を憂える

2008/12/8 --The Asahi Shimbun, Dec. 6.(IHT/Asahi: December 8,2008)

EDITORIAL: India-Pakistan relations

印パ関係―核保有国の対立を憂える

The antagonism that plagues relations between nuclear rivals India and Pakistan is deepening. The multiple terror attacks in Mumbai set off the latest round of conflict between the two neighbors on the Subcontinent. India increasingly believes the attacks were staged by a Pakistan-based Islamic militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba. It also accuses Pakistan's military intelligence service of possible involvement. The Indian military has placed its troops in Kashmir, a region whose territoriality is disputed between Indian and Pakistan, on alert.

 ともに核兵器保有国であるインドとパキスタンの対立が深まっている。 

 きっかけはインドの商都ムンバイでの同時多発テロ事件だ。インド側はパキスタンのイスラム過激派「ラシュカレトイバ」が実行したとの見方を強め、パキスタン軍情報機関の関与も疑う。インド軍は、領有をパキスタンと争っているカシミール地方に展開する部隊を警戒態勢に置いた。 

Pakistan, however, refutes India's charges.

It says there is no proof the terrorists were Pakistanis. Some hard-liners in the country's military elite are arguing that Pakistani troops that are now being deployed near the border with Afghanistan to crack down on the al-Qaida terrorist network and the Islamic fundamentalist Taliban should be redeployed closer to the Indian border.

 だが、パキスタン側は「犯人がパキスタン人という証拠はない」と反論する。軍高官からは、アフガニスタンとの国境地帯で国際テロ組織アルカイダやイスラム原理主義勢力タリバーンの掃討を続ける部隊を、インド国境に移動させる強硬論すら出ている。 

In India, there is talk of strengthening troop numbers along the border with Pakistan. With a general election set for next year, the main opposition party Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP, Indian People's Party) has been attacking the government and the ruling Indian National Congress Party for being soft on terrorism.

 インド側でもパキスタン国境部隊の増強といった対抗策が浮上してきた。来年の総選挙を控え、政府や与党国民会議派が最大野党の人民党から「テロに弱腰」と批判をされているからだ。 

The United States has sent Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to appease the two rivals. Although Pakistan's President Asif Ali Zardari displayed a willingness to cooperate with India's criminal investigations into the attacks, he did not shift from his position that Pakistan has nothing to do with terrorism.

 米国はライス国務長官を派遣して、両国に自制を求めた。しかし、パキスタンのザルダリ大統領は同時テロについて、インドの捜査に協力する意向を示したものの「テロと無関係」との立場はいぜん崩さなかった。 

In 2002, antagonism between the two rivals reached critical proportions. It stemmed from a terrorist attack in Kashmir believed carried out by a militant Islamic group from Pakistan. Tensions escalated to the point that both countries massed troops along their respective borders and exchanged gunfire.

 02年にも、パキスタンのイスラム過激派とみられる勢力がカシミール地方で起こした大規模テロをきっかけに、両国が国境に大軍を集結させ、一部が砲撃を交わす緊張状態が起きた。 

An armed clash between India and Pakistan raises the prospect of a nuclear exchange. We urge the two countries to continue their dialogue and work together to get to the bottom of the Mumbai attacks. We urge them to do their utmost to prevent any kind of recurrence and hope they will achieve some form of detente.

 両国の衝突は、核戦争の危険に直結する。双方は対話を続けて事件の解明と再発防止に協力し、緊張を緩めることにまずは全力を尽くしてほしい。 

The Mumbai attacks occurred just weeks before the new U.S. administration of President-elect Barack Obama comes into being.

 今回のテロは、米国にオバマ政権が登場する直前に起きた。

Obama has publicly announced his intentions to switch the focus of the war against terror from Iraq to Afghanistan. There are also signs that Islamic militants like the Taliban are attempting to suck India and Pakistan into a state of conflict so as to deflect the pressure of their forces from their base, the porous border regions between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

オバマ氏は対テロの主戦場をイラクからアフガンに移す方針を掲げている。タリバーンなどイスラム過激派勢力が、印パを激しい対立へと引き込み、拠点とするアフガン・パキスタン国境地帯への圧力をそらそうとする意図も見てとれる。 

If India and Pakistan feel so provoked that they enter into actual combat, as they have done in the past, then the threat of the international terror network in this region will become that much stronger.

 その挑発に乗って印パが戦火を交える事態になれば、この地域の国際テロネットワークの脅威は格段に強まるだろう。

At the same time, Pakistan's Zardari civilian administration will inevitably become unstable as it does not have a power base within the military while it tries to cope with the global financial crisis. If that occurs, then the threat that Pakistan's nuclear arsenal may fall into the hands of the terrorists may well become an issue.

軍に足場を持たずに基盤が弱く、金融危機からも打撃を受けているパキスタンのザルダリ文民政権が不安定化するのも必至だ。そうなれば、保有する核兵器がテロリスト側に渡る危険性すら生じかねない。

Russia's President Dimitry Medvedev is visiting India. We hope the United States, Russia, Britain, China and other countries with deep ties with India will hurry to act as mediators between India and Pakistan.

 ロシアのメドベージェフ大統領がインドを訪問中だ。米ロをはじめ英国、中国など関係の深い国々は、仲介外交をさらに急いでもらいたい。 

Most of all, the United States is responsible for causing instability in the region. The Bush administration opened the way for U.S.-India nuclear cooperation. It also instigated cross-border attacks into Pakistan from Afghanistan. The incoming Obama administration must collaborate with countries with a major stake in the region, and implement a comprehensive and well-thought-out set of policies that does not simply rely on military force alone.

 とりわけ米国は、ブッシュ政権がインドとの原子力協力を解禁し、アフガンからの越境攻撃でパキスタン国民の反米感情が高まるなど、地域の不安定要因をつくってきた。オバマ政権は関係国と協調し、軍事力だけに頼らない総合的で神経の行き届いた政策を進める必要がある。

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