０９年度予算 埋蔵金と赤字国債が頼りとは

Budget cooked up with buried treasure, bonds

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Dec. 21, 2008)

０９年度予算　埋蔵金と赤字国債が頼りとは（12月21日付・読売社説）

Government spending must increase to prop up the economy and cover swelling social security costs, but tax revenues are forecast to drop substantially. In the teeth of the global financial crisis, the compilation of the fiscal 2009 budget was unusually difficult, given these two situations.

　景気下支えや膨らむ社会保障費の手当てのため出費は増える。一方で税収は大幅に減少する。金融危機の直撃を受けた予算編成は、例年にない厳しいものになった。

The general account budget for fiscal 2009 proposed Saturday by the Finance Ministry totals 88.5 trillion yen, up 5.5 trillion yen from the initial fiscal 2008 budget. The budget has ballooned to a record size as it sets aside 2.3 trillion yen to raise the government's contribution to the nation's basic pension program from the current one-third to half from April and 1 trillion yen in special emergency reserves to cope with any further deterioration of the economy.

　２００９年度予算の財務省原案は、一般会計の歳出総額が８８・５兆円と、０８年度当初予算に比べ５・５兆円増える。基礎年金の国庫負担増加分や、景気対策の予備費１兆円などを計上したことで、過去最大を記録する。

　◆国債発行額は３３兆円◆

By contrast, tax revenues in fiscal 2009 are estimated to fall to about 46 trillion yen, more than 7 trillion yen lower than the amount projected in the initial fiscal 2008 budget, due to a drop in corporate tax revenues resulting from worsening business performances. The fiscal 2008 tax revenues projection was revised downward by 7 trillion yen in the second supplementary budget, and the ministry's draft budget is based on the assumption that this declining trend will continue in fiscal 2009.

　逆に税収は、企業業績の悪化による法人税の落ち込みなどで約４６兆円にとどまる。今年度当初予算より７兆円以上も少ない。

　０８年度予算の第２次補正で、税収が７兆円減額修正され、その傾向が０９年度も続くと想定した。

As a result, new government bond issuances in fiscal 2009 will climb to 33.3 trillion yen, up about 8 trillion yen from the initial fiscal 2008 budget, breaking the 30 trillion yen mark for the first time in four years. Funds raised by the bond issuances will account for nearly 40 percent of total revenues next fiscal year.

　この結果、国債の発行額は、０８年度当初予算を約８兆円上回る３３・３兆円となり、４年ぶりに３０兆円の大台を超える。歳入に占める国債比率は４割に近づいた。

The government has set a goal of achieving a surplus in the primary balance of central and local governments in fiscal 2011. However, the expected sharp increase in the fiscal deficit has made it virtually impossible to attain this goal.

　政府は、国と地方の基礎的財政収支（プライマリーバランス）を１１年度に黒字化する目標を立てている。今回、財政赤字が一気に拡大し、目標達成は事実上不可能になったといえよう。

Given this, it is no longer necessary to stick to the goal. The targeted fiscal year should be postponed.

　これ以上、その目標にこだわる必要はあるまい。達成年度を先送りしてしかるべきだ。

However, this does not mean that the massive fiscal deficit should be left unaddressed. It might be admissible to try to muddle through the present difficulties with new bond issuances, but the goal of tackling fiscal reconstruction by securing stable financial sources itself must not be abandoned.

　だが、巨額な財政赤字を放置しておいて構わないということではない。当面は国債発行でしのぐとしても、いずれ安定財源を確保し、財政再建に取り組むとの目標まで失ってはいけない。

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Sales tax hike inevitable

It is, therefore, obvious that there is no choice but to rely on the consumption tax to stabilize the nation's finances. In light of the current faltering economy, now is not the time to raise the consumption tax. But discussions over doing just that should start now. An environment needs to be created to ensure that the tax can be hiked swiftly when the economy recovers.

　その場合、消費税に頼らざるを得ないのは明白だ。景気の動きを見れば、消費税率を直ちに引き上げる状況にはない。だが、今から議論を進め、景気回復後に速やかに引き上げが実現できるよう環境を整えておく必要がある。

Tax reform proposals for fiscal 2009 that were presented by the ruling coalition earlier this month did not mention when and by how much the consumption tax should be raised. The government and ruling parties should clarify the timing of the tax hike in the midterm program for tax reform that they will soon compile, if not earlier.

　その点、与党の来年度税制改正大綱は消費税率引き上げの時期や幅に触れなかったが、政府・与党が近くまとめる中期プログラムでは、せめて税率引き上げの時期を明確にすべきだ。

　◆目立つ埋蔵金の流用◆

What is conspicuous in the series of budgets compiled recently is the tapping of surplus funds in special accounts, dubbed "buried treasure." For the second supplementary budget for the current fiscal year, which was approved by the Cabinet on Saturday, 4 trillion yen will be diverted from the reserves. In addition, more than 4 trillion yen from the reserves will be appropriated for the fiscal 2009 budget under the ministry's proposal. It appears the reserves will also be counted on for the fiscal 2010 budget.

　一連の予算編成で目立つのは、「埋蔵金」の流用だ。まず、今年度の第２次補正予算に４兆円投入する。０９年度予算にも４兆円以上つぎ込む。さらに１０年度予算でもあてにされている。

The reserves will be used to fund the fixed-amount benefit plan, the centerpiece of the government's economic stimulus package, and to offset the increased financial burden the state will shoulder in fiscal 2009 and 2010 as a result of the government's contribution to the nation's basic pension program being raised. They also will be used to increase central government tax revenues allocated to local governments.

　景気対策の目玉とされる定額給付金や、基礎年金の国庫負担増に伴う０９、１０年度の２年分の財源になる。地方交付税の積み増しなどにも使われる。

Most of the buried treasure is reserve funds and annual surpluses in the Fiscal Investment and Loan Program Special Account. The reserve funds are projected to total about 10 trillion yen as of the end of the current fiscal year. The surpluses arise from the differential between the high interest rate applied to loans extended by the government in the past and the current low interest rate on funds the government procures. The surpluses are expected to total about 2 trillion yen in the current fiscal year and nearly the same amount in the next fiscal year.

　埋蔵金の大半は、財政投融資特別会計の積立金と毎年の余剰分だ。積立金は今年度末で約１０兆円とされる。余剰分は、過去の高い貸付金利と現在の低い調達金利の差で生じるもので、今年度に約２兆円、来年度もそれに近い額が見込まれている。

These funds are supposed to be used for funding the redemption of government bonds. Diverting it for other purposes is tantamount to issuing fresh deficit-covering bonds. This is permissible to a certain extent, but it should be stopped once the economy recovers.

　こうしたお金は本来、国債償還に回すべきものだ。流用は赤字国債の増発と変わらない。ある程度の流用は許容範囲だが、景気が回復すればすぐにやめるべきだ。

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Road tax plan undermined

The ministry's budget proposal has effectively hamstrung a plan to allocate road-related tax revenues for general purposes, a focal point in the fiscal 2009 budget compilation.

　来年度予算の焦点の一つだった道路特定財源の一般財源化は、実質、骨抜きに終わった。

Under the proposal, 700 billion yen earmarked as a "temporary subsidy for regional road improvement" in the fiscal 2008 budget will be transformed into a "subsidy for creating the foundations for regional vitality," and the new subsidy, totaling 940 billion yen, will be distributed to local governments. About 80 percent of the amount will be used for road-related projects.

　今年度予算で７０００億円計上された「地方道路整備臨時交付金」を、新設する「地域活力基盤創造交付金」に衣替えし、９４００億円に増額して地方に配る。８割が道路整備に使われるという。

At the instruction of Prime Minister Taro Aso, central government tax revenues and other grants allocated to local governments were increased by nearly 1 trillion yen in total, to 16.6 trillion yen. At the local government level, there are still plentiful examples of wasteful expenditures that should be cut, such as the comparatively high salaries that public servants enjoy. Local governments must do more to rein in their spending.

　地方交付税等は、首相の指示で約１兆円近く増額され、１６・６兆円となった。地方では公務員の割高な人件費など、まだ無駄な出費も多い。自治体は一段の歳出削減に取り組む必要がある。

In late July, the Cabinet approved budgetary request ceilings for the fiscal 2009 budget, in a bid to keep expenditures down.

　０９年度予算では、歳出削減のための概算要求基準（シーリング）が７月末に決められた。

For social security spending, the budgetary request guideline set, as in previous years, a goal of curbing the projected natural increase in related costs by 220 billion yen annually. To achieve this goal, a plan to hike the tobacco tax was broached but shelved. Eventually, the ministry's draft budget managed to make this policy add up by eking out necessary funds from the buried treasure.

　社会保障費については、自然増分を２２００億円抑制する例年通りの目標が課せられた。これをクリアするため、たばこ税の増税などが検討されたが、結局、埋蔵金などから財源をひねり出し、なんとかつじつまを合わせた。

However, the actual amount to be held down in the social security costs will only be about 20 billion yen in medical costs, achieved primarily by promoting low-priced generic drugs.

　だが、実際に歳出を抑制するのは、後発医薬品の利用促進による２００億円余りにとどまった。

　◆限界に来たシーリング◆

Problems have also emerged with other expenditure items. It is no longer logical to apply the ceiling system for budgetary requests. The government should consider using a new method for the fiscal 2010 budget compilation.

　そのほかの歳出項目でも、きしみが生じている。これ以上、シーリング方式を続けるのは無理だろう。１０年度予算では新しい手法を考えるべきだ。

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LDP idea worth studying

So what should be done? A set of proposals presented last year by the Liberal Democratic Party group studying fiscal reforms could be of some help. The group proposed that, first of all, the nation's budget be divided into two major categories: "social security" and "others."

　どうすればいいのか。自民党の財政改革研究会が昨年出した提言が参考になる。まず予算を、社会保障部門とその他部門に大きく２分割する。

Under the proposal, in the social security category, necessary increases to relieve concerns over people's livelihood are permissible, and revenues from the consumption tax, which will be transformed into a tax for social security purposes, will be used to secure financial sources for welfare in the future. Utmost efforts should be made to trim spending in the others category, according to the proposal.

　社会保障部門は、国民生活の不安解消のため、必要な伸びを認め、将来的には、社会保障目的税にする消費税で財源を確保する。その他部門は出来るだけスリム化を進めるというものだ。

In the others category, what is vital is a flexible approach--for example, allowing an increase in strategically important budgetary items, including official development assistance.

　その他部門では、政府開発援助（ＯＤＡ）など、戦略上、重要な予算は増額を認めるなど、柔軟に対応する姿勢が肝要となろう。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Dec. 21, 2008)

（2008年12月21日01時32分  読売新聞）