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2008年12月16日 (火)

日銀短観 景気の悪化が加速している

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Dec. 16, 2008)

Economy's downhill slide picking up speed

日銀短観 景気の悪化が加速している(1216日付・読売社説)

The nation's economy has been deteriorating at surprising speed. The government and the Bank of Japan must employ all available measures to prevent the economy from sinking any further.

 景気が驚くほどのスピードで悪化している。

 政府・日銀は政策を総動員し、景気底割れを食い止めねばならない。

The Bank of Japan's key Tankan quarterly survey for December showed that the diffusion index for business confidence among major manufacturers dropped to minus 24.

 日銀の12月の企業短期経済観測調査(短観)は、景気認識を示す業況判断指数が大企業・製造業でマイナス24となった。

The index fell by 21 points from the previous survey for September. The fall was the second-largest in the survey's history following a 26-point drop in August 1974 in the wake of the first oil shock.

 9月の前回調査から21ポイントも低下した。第1次石油危機の1974年8月調査で記録した26ポイントに次ぐ、過去2番目の悪化幅だ。

The index of all 15 types of industries worsened from the previous survey, also for the first time since the oil shock.

 製造業の全15業種の指数がそろって前回より悪化したのも、石油危機以来のことである。

Regarding major nonmanufacturers, the index fell into the negative territory for the first time in five years. The lack of confidence expressed through the survey by smaller companies--both manufacturers and nonmanufacturers--was more serious than the figures for major companies.

 大企業・非製造業の指数も5年ぶりにマイナスに落ち込み、中小企業の指数は、製造業、非製造業ともに大企業よりも深刻だ。

Sluggish sales caused by slowdowns in foreign economies and weak domestic demand are rapidly cooling business sentiment.

 海外経済の失速と内需低迷による販売不振が、企業心理を急速に冷やしている。

Following export-oriented industries such as automobiles and electrical appliances, signs of the worsening economy have become apparent among such consumption-related sectors as the hospitality industry and retailers as well. The nation's economy is suffering a meltdown.

自動車や電機など輸出産業に続いて、飲食や小売りなど国内消費関連の業種も景気悪化が鮮明だ。まさに、総崩れの状況と言えよう。

===

Sentiment declining further

Seventy to 80 percent of the companies surveyed completed their replies by late November. With a series of reductions in output and job cuts announced after that taken into account, business sentiment now must be even worse. Both major and smaller companies predicted the economy would deteriorate further in March compared to this month.

 7~8割の企業が11月下旬までに回答を終えている。その後の減産や人員削減の広がりを考えると、現在の景況感は、さらに悪いに違いない。大企業も中小企業も、来年3月は、今月より景気が落ち込むと予想している。

It also is a concern that the indexes for employment and production capacity both showed companies felt payrolls and production capacity were excessive, a sentiment that has begun spreading.

 雇用人員や生産設備の過剰感を示す指数が上昇してきたことも気がかりだ。

If companies feel strongly that their payrolls are excessively large, corporate restructuring is likely and the income of corporate workers and others will go down. It is of increasing concern that consumption, a major pillar of domestic demand, may further decline.

 雇用の過剰感が強いと、企業のリストラが加速し、サラリーマンなどの収入が減少する。今後、内需の柱である消費が、一段と冷え込む恐れが強まっている。

Excess production capacity will dampen companies' incentives to invest and make production activity even more sluggish.

 設備が過剰になると、企業が投資意欲を失い、生産活動は一段と停滞する。

The nation cannot expect much from external demand as its future prospects are uncertain. To prevent further acceleration of the deterioration in the economy, it is necessary to pursue policy measures to bolster domestic demand.

 先行きが不透明な外需は頼りにならない。景気の悪化をこれ以上加速させないため、政策による内需の下支えが欠かせない。

===

Swift action needed

First and foremost, the government should hasten to implement its additional economic package, worth 23 trillion yen, to boost the economy and secure employment.

 まずは、政府がまとめた23兆円規模の追加景気・雇用対策の実施を急がねばならない。

The financial situation also is a concern. The index representing the lending attitude of financial institutions now is at a seriously low level, close to that of the financial depression a decade ago.

 金融情勢も懸念される。金融機関の貸し出し態度の指数は10年前の金融不況時に迫る厳しさだ。

With the enactment of a bill to revise the law to strengthen financial functions, safety nets for regional financial services have been created as the legislation again allows injection of public funds into financial institutions. Using measures listed in the stimulus package that are aimed at helping companies' cash flow, financial institutions must make utmost efforts to prevent credit tightening cutting off a lifeline to companies.

 公的資金注入を復活させる改正金融機能強化法が成立し、地域金融の安全網が整備された。景気対策に盛り込まれた資金繰り支援も活用し、金融の目詰まり防止に全力を挙げねばならない。

We also consider it necessary to undertake additional measures to help companies' cash flow, such as the purchasing of corporate bonds by the Bank of Japan.

 日銀による社債の買い上げなど、新たな企業金融支援策も追加すべきではないか。

Monetary easing is a worldwide trend. Although there is little room for the Bank of Japan to lower interest rates further, the central bank should consider additional measures without excluding even a zero interest rate and quantitative easing.

 世界的に金融緩和が進んでいる。日銀の利下げ余地は少ないが、ゼロ金利や量的緩和策も例外とせず、追加策を検討すべきだ。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Dec. 16, 2008)

200812160131  読売新聞)

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