« エレキギターvsアコギ | トップページ | 記者の目:豪州の子供ホスピスを視察して=鈴木梢(夕刊編集部) »

2008年12月 4日 (木)

来年度予算 景気と雇用に目配りが肝要だ

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Dec. 4, 2008)

Govt right to be flexible over fiscal targets

来年度予算 景気と雇用に目配りが肝要だ(124日付・読売社説)

The government and ruling coalition parties will not be able to meet the people's expectations if they follow an inflexible blanket policy of restraining or even cutting expenditure. This is a crucial point in the drafting of the fiscal 2009 budget.

 一律の歳出削減・抑制路線にこだわっていては国民の期待に応えられない――。来年度予算の編成に当たっては、こうした視点が欠かせまい。

The government and ruling parties have decided their basic policy for drawing up the budget for fiscal 2009.

 政府・与党が来年度予算編成の基本方針を決めた。

According to this policy, while they will maintain next fiscal year's budgetary request guidelines, including a 3 percent reduction in expenditures related to public works projects, they also have decided to "promptly and flexibly respond to" budgetary needs for boosting the economy and creating jobs.

公共事業関係費の3%削減などを盛り込んだ概算要求基準(シーリング)は維持するものの、景気や雇用対策のため、「機動的かつ弾力的に対応」することになった。

Though details of what these responses will entail are to be discussed later, the government is likely to concentrate money on economic and employment measures through creating a special budget category.

 その内容は今後詰めるが、特別枠などを設けて、予算を重点配分することになりそうだ。

===

Deteriorating economic situation

The slumping domestic economy means that it is reasonable to give special fiscal consideration to such measures. The problem is where best to allocate spending, bearing in mind the limited financial resources the country has. Addressing this challenge will test the leadership of Prime Minister Taro Aso, who will be directing the budget process for the first time.

 国内景気の落ち込みを見れば、財政面での一定の配慮は当然だ。財源が乏しいなかでどのようにメリハリをつけていくか。初の予算編成を指揮する麻生首相の指導力が問われることになる。

Next fiscal year's budgetary request guidelines were decided at the end of July and then Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda's Cabinet endorsed them without a hitch. However, the economic environment surrounding next fiscal year's budget has changed dramatically with a deterioration resulting from the global financial crisis.

 来年度予算のシーリングが決まったのは今年7月末だ。当時は福田内閣で、すんなり閣議了解された。だが、世界的な金融危機による景気の悪化が予算をめぐる環境を一変させた。

The Liberal Democratic Party, a member of the ruling coalition, announced an unconventional move Tuesday. Members of its General Council agreed to freeze the fiscal 2006 guidelines, which detailed a roadmap for fiscal reform, for about three years. They reported their decision to the prime minister, and this has been reflected to a certain extent in the latest basic policy on the budget.

 今月2日には、自民党が異例の方針を打ち出した。財政再建の方向を定めた2006年度の「骨太の方針」を3年程度凍結することなどで総務会が一致し、首相に伝えた。それがある程度、基本方針に反映された。

If the budget is drafted based on this policy, it will mean a review of social security expenditure restraint will be prioritized. The government's policy of curbing natural increases in social security costs resulting from the rapid aging of the population by 220 billion yen a year has caused a range of problems, including a shortage of workers in nursing care and medical services.

 その方針に沿って予算編成するなら、社会保障費の抑制の見直しが最優先だ。自然増を毎年2200億円ずつ抑制する仕組みだが、介護や医療の現場で人手不足を招くなど、問題が生じている。

It will be necessary to increase budget appropriations to enhance policy measures for small and midsize companies and to ensure job security, as well as to expand official development assistance, the budget for which has been cut for a number of years.

 中小企業対策や雇用確保策の充実、削減が続いてきた政府開発援助(ODA)予算の増額も必要となろう。

===

Limited resources

The problem the government faces is that there are extremely limited resources for doing all this. Economic stagnation has caused a sharp drop in revenues from corporate and other taxes. The government initially expected 54 trillion yen in tax revenues this fiscal year, but actual revenues are projected to be between 6 trillion yen and 7 trillion yen less.

 問題は財源である。景気低迷で税収は法人税を中心に大きく落ち込んでいる。今年度予算では約54兆円の税収を見込んだが、6~7兆円不足する見通しだ。

This shortfall can only be met by issuing deficit-covering government bonds. Since the trend of revenue shortfalls is expected to continue for the drafting of next fiscal year's budget, the amount of government bonds issued is highly likely to exceed 30 trillion yen for two straight years.

 この不足分は赤字国債の増発で穴埋めするしかあるまい。来年度予算についても同じ傾向が続くと見られ、国債発行額は2年連続で30兆円を超す可能性が高い。

The level of fiscal deficit will further increase after the budgetary measures to stimulate the economy have been taken into account. Consequently, it will be almost impossible to achieve the government's target of moving the primary balance of central and local governments into the black by fiscal 2011. The government should consider postponing this deadline and taking other necessary measures.

 景気対策に伴う費用が計上されれば、財政赤字はさらに拡大することになろう。

 この結果、2011年度に国と地方の基礎的財政収支を黒字化するという政府の目標は、ほとんど達成不可能になる。目標年度の先送りなどを検討すべきだ。

However, this does not mean that the problem of huge fiscal deficits can be neglected. The government now needs to clarify how it will secure financial resources in the future, including by raising the consumption tax after the economy has recovered.

 巨額な財政赤字を放置していいということではない。景気回復後の消費税引き上げなど、将来の財源確保の道筋を今から示しておくことが肝要だ。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Dec. 4, 2008)

20081240144  読売新聞)

|

« エレキギターvsアコギ | トップページ | 記者の目:豪州の子供ホスピスを視察して=鈴木梢(夕刊編集部) »

01-英字新聞(読売)」カテゴリの記事

コメント

コメントを書く



(ウェブ上には掲載しません)




« エレキギターvsアコギ | トップページ | 記者の目:豪州の子供ホスピスを視察して=鈴木梢(夕刊編集部) »