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2009年1月 4日 (日)

急変する世界 国際秩序安定をどう図るか、米新政権が背負う重い課題

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Jan. 4, 2009)

Ensuring global stability rests with Obama

急変する世界 国際秩序安定をどう図るか、米新政権が背負う重い課題(14日付・読売社説)

U.S. President-elect Barack Obama, advocating "change," will take the oath of office on Jan. 20 against a backdrop of a rapidly deteriorating global economy.

 世界全体の景気が急速に冷え込む中、「チェンジ(変化、変革)」を掲げるバラク・オバマ氏が20日、米国新大統領に就任する。

The most pressing task he faces is to reconstruct the shattered U.S. economy. He also needs to tackle a number of difficult issues, including the two wars that the United States is engaged in--in Iraq and Afghanistan--while preventing nuclear proliferation and trying to secure peace in the Middle East.

 最優先の課題は米国経済の再生だ。イラクとアフガニスタンの二つの戦争、核拡散防止、中東和平問題などの難題も待ち構えている。

The policies to be adopted by the Obama administration in its bid to reestablish the U.S.-led global order will have a decisive impact on the course of world events this year.

 オバマ次期政権が、米国主導の世界秩序の立て直しに向け、いかなる取り組みを見せるのか。その政策が、2009年の世界の行方を左右することになる。

Under the eight-year administration of President George W. Bush, U.S. credibility and prestige have been badly tarnished by turmoil in Iraq and the ongoing financial crisis. The unipolar world of U.S. domination that seemed to have been ushered in after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union is now looking decidedly shaky.

 8年間続いたブッシュ政権のもと、イラクの混迷や金融危機で、米国の威信は大きく傷ついた。「ベルリンの壁」とソ連が崩壊したあと、到来したかに見えていた米国の一極支配体制は、足元から揺らいでいる。

New players have been emerging and remerging on the world stage. These include Russia, which hopes to regain its status as a major power; China, which is boosting its international presence with its increasing economic and military clout; and India and Brazil, which have the potential to become major regional powers.

 大国復活を目指すロシア、経済力と軍事力の増大を背景に存在感を強める中国、地域の大国として大きな潜在力を持ったインド、ブラジルなど、新たなプレーヤーが台頭している。

Meanwhile, new frameworks have begun to settle into place to deal with global problems. The Group of 20 nations, comprised of the Group of Eight major nations plus China, India, South Africa, South Korea and others, is tackling the ongoing financial crisis, while a meeting of the biggest 16 emitters of global warming gases is working to combat climate change.

 金融危機への対応では、G8(主要8か国)に中国やインド、南アフリカ、韓国などを加えたG20が、また地球温暖化対策では、主要排出国16か国会合が、新たな枠組みとして定着してきた。

However, all these countries are hamstrung by recessions brought on by the financial crisis that began last year. As a result, there have been growing conflicts of interest between leading and emerging countries, which is making it difficult for them to reach consensus on pending issues.

 しかし、各国とも昨年来の金融危機と景気後退で、苦境の中にある。このため、先進国と新興国との利害対立も深まっており、懸案の合意形成を難しくしている。

Obama has said he will tackle important and pressing issues by making full use of the range of U.S. powers--its incomparable military strength, as well as its economic and diplomatic prowess--to revive U.S. leadership in the world.

 オバマ次期大統領は、米国のリーダーシップを再生するため、世界に比類のない軍事力、経済力、外交力など米国が有するパワーを総動員し、重大かつ喫緊の課題に取り組む、と宣言している。

Indeed, there apparently is no other major and responsible country capable of assuming a leading role and guiding the world to stability and prosperity.

 実際、世界をとりまとめ、安定と繁栄へ導いていく能力を有する責任ある大国は、米国以外にはあるまい。

Obama is responsible for delivering on his various pledges by crafting appropriate policies and implementing them decisively.

 オバマ氏には、その言葉の通り、諸政策を具体化し、果敢に遂行していく責務があろう。

===

Attention on China, Russia

The world is currently in flux, economically and politically, with the situation apparently becoming ever more fluid.

 現在、世界情勢は急激に変化し、流動化している。

 ◆中国もロシアも難局◆

China has been boosting its military might and indicated its desire to fulfill its international responsibilities by dispatching naval vessels for an antipiracy mission off Somalia late last year. Beijing's decision appears to have been aimed at showcasing its ability to deploy naval vessels on the high seas.

 軍事的な膨張を続ける中国は、昨年末、ソマリア沖の海賊対策で軍艦を派遣し、国際責任を果たす意思を鮮明にした。外洋展開能力を誇示する狙いもあろう。

At home, however, there seems to be growing social unrest. This year marks the 60th anniversary of the founding of modern China. It also marks the 50th anniversary of the Tibetan revolt and the 20th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square incident in which the Chinese government forcibly suppressed the democratization movement.

 だが、国内では、社会不安が増大しつつある。建国60年の今年は、チベット動乱から50年、民主化運動を弾圧した天安門事件から20年の節目でもある。

Chinese have become increasingly frustrated with the hardships they face as the U.S.-triggered economic slowdown bites following the successful 2008 Beijing Summer Olympics. Some believe there is increasing potential for mass action demanding the government correct social disparities.

 北京五輪成功直後の米国発金融危機に伴う景気減速で、生活への不満は高まっている。格差是正を要求する大衆行動が広がる恐れが指摘されている。

Meanwhile, Russia's once healthy economy has deteriorated on the back of plunging oil prices. Russia was forced to tap its foreign currency reserves, and the vulnerabilities in its economy, which is heavily dependent on the country's natural resources, have been laid bare.

 ロシアも、好調だった経済が、原油価格の暴落で暗転した。外貨準備の取り崩しを余儀なくされるなど、資源偏重の経済構造の脆弱(ぜいじゃく)性を露呈した。

Russia also remains unchanged in its vehement opposition to the United States and European Union extending their influence eastward.

 一方で、欧米の東方拡大路線に対する強烈な対抗意識は変わるところがない。

As permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, China and Russia must establish a cooperative relationship with the next U.S. administration and act responsibly for the sake of global stability.

 中露には、国連安全保障理事会の常任理事国の立場から、オバマ次期米政権と協力体制を築き、世界の安定のために、責任を持って行動してもらう必要がある。

===

Terrorism fight continues

 ◆テロとの戦いは続く◆


The fight against terrorism also remains an important issue for the international community to address this year.

 「テロとの戦い」も、引き続き国際社会の重大な課題だ。

Obama has pledged to withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq while sending more troops to Afghanistan, arguing that the front line in the fight against terrorism is not Iraq, but Afghanistan.

 オバマ次期大統領は、テロとの戦いの最前線は、イラクではなく、アフガニスタンだとして、イラクから米軍を撤退させ、アフガンへの増派を進める方針だ。

Is it possible to ensure stability in Iraq with U.S. troops being withdrawn as currently envisioned? It will be important to step up support for Iraq's reconstruction so that intensifying religious strife in the country does not escalate into civil war.

 米軍を早期に撤退させつつ、イラクの安定を確保できるのかどうか。宗派対立の激化で内戦に陥らないようにするには、復興支援を強化していくことが重要だ。

A number of important questions also remain to be answered, such as the degree to which North Atlantic Treaty Organization member countries, including Britain, Germany and France, would accept a request by the United States to boost their troop levels in Afghanistan. And is it possible to eliminate terrorist strongholds in Pakistan in cooperation with the Pakistani government?

 アフガンでは、米国から増派要請を受けている英独仏など北大西洋条約機構(NATO)メンバー国は、これにどこまで積極的に応じるのか。パキスタン領内にあるテロ集団の拠点を、パキスタン政府の協力で壊滅できるか、という難題もある。

Another concern is the deep-rooted animosity between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan, which is being rekindled following a series of indiscriminate terrorist attacks in both countries last year.

 核兵器保有国であるパキスタンとインドの根深い対立が、昨年、両国で相次いだ無差別テロを契機に、再燃しようとしているのも懸念材料だ。

Getting North Korea to abandon its nuclear ambitions and halting Iran's nuclear development also are pressing issues.

 北朝鮮の核廃棄や、イランの核開発の阻止も、焦眉(しょうび)の急だ。

With the ultimate goal of abolishing nuclear weapons, Obama has stressed a diplomatic strategy based on "unconditional dialogue," even with autocratic regimes. However, there remains some doubt over whether he will be able to achieve much in nuclear negotiations without resorting to the sticks of economic and military power.

 オバマ氏は、核廃絶を目標に掲げ、専制的な独裁政権とも「無条件で対話する」外交戦略に力点を置いている。だが、経済力や軍事力のテコなしに、核交渉で成果をあげられるか、疑問も残る。

Meanwhile, there is increasing uncertainty surrounding North Korea, including questions over who will succeed Kim Jong Il as leader following speculation about his health.

 健康不安が伝えられる金正日総書記の後継問題など、北朝鮮情勢の不透明感が強まっている。

Japan, which must quickly settle the abduction issue and help realize a nuclear-free North Korea, needs to more actively deal with these issues as it negotiates with Pyongyang, while still maintaining close cooperation with the United States.

 核廃棄や拉致問題の解決を早急に図らなければならない日本は、米国と緊密に連携しつつ、対北朝鮮交渉ではより能動的な対応が求められる。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Jan. 4, 2009)

2009140134  読売新聞)

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