不況と保護主義―過ちの歴史を繰り返すな

2009/1/5

--The Asahi Shimbun, Jan. 3(IHT/Asahi: January 5,2009)

EDITORIAL: The global recession

不況と保護主義―過ちの歴史を繰り返すな

This is going to be a hugely challenging year for the world economy. It faces a critical choice: Will it turn its back on globalization and move toward protectionism, or will it reject protectionism and maintain free trade?

　経済のグローバル化に背を向けて保護主義へ向かうのか、それを許さずあくまでも自由貿易を守るのか。今年は世界経済にとって、重い選択を迫られる試練の年となりそうだ。 

The world has been caught up in a full-blown financial crisis since last autumn and is now sinking deeper into synchronized recession. To mitigate the painful effects of the global downturn on their economies, many countries are making moves that smack of protectionism. Symbolizing this trend are responses by key economic powers to the predicament of their domestic auto industries.

　昨秋から世界は金融危機に見舞われ、同時不況が深まりつつある。この衝撃をやわらげようと、世界中で保護主義的な動きが出ている。その象徴が自動車をめぐる各国の対応である。 

Last month, the U.S. government decided to provide $17.4 billion (about 1.5 trillion yen) in emergency loans to General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC., which are on the verge of bankruptcy.

　米政府は先月、経営危機に陥っているゼネラル・モーターズ（ＧＭ）とクライスラーに対し、約１兆５千億円のつなぎ融資を決めた。

The European Union, Britain, Sweden and China have also started providing public aid to their troubled auto industries. Russia is set to raise tariffs on car imports this month to protect its own industry.

欧州連合（ＥＵ）や英国、スウェーデン、中国などでも、政府が自動車産業への支援を始めた。ロシアは自動車産業を守るため今月から関税を引き上げる。 

It is difficult to criticize a country that feels it cannot allow its auto industry, which provides so many jobs, to collapse amid this harsh recession.

　多くの雇用を抱える自動車産業を不況のさなかにつぶすことはできない。各国がそう考えてもやむを得ない面はある。

But what should be borne in mind is that protecting domestic industries could lead to even more serious problems in the long run.

ただそこには、長い目でみればもっと大きな問題を生む要素があることも忘れてはならない。 

By providing financial assistance to car manufacturers, governments in effect are offering export subsidies that help bolster the competitiveness of their exports.

But countries targeted in export drives by carmakers that are receiving government support tend to adopt defensive measures, such as subsidies to domestic makers and hikes in car import tariffs.

Such policy actions, coupled with tit-for-tat responses, could eventually escalate into a global wave of protectionism.

　自動車メーカーへの金融支援は輸出競争力を増すだろうから、輸出補助金のようなものといえる。輸出攻勢を受ける側の国も、国内メーカーへの補助や関税引き上げといった対抗策に走りやすい。その応酬が、やがて保護主義のうねりと化しかねないのだ。 

That is exactly what happened during the Great Depression, which started in 1929 in the United States.

　１９２９年に米国で始まった大恐慌がまさにそうだった。

At the time, the U.S. government moved to protect domestic industries amid surging unemployment by raising tariffs on a wide range of imports. This triggered similar tariff increases by countries in Europe and elsewhere.

大量の失業に苦しむ米国が国内産業保護のために関税を引き上げると、それが欧州各国や周辺国へも飛び火した。 

The wave of protectionist moves caused all the countries involved to enter a long and damaging recession, ushering in the gloomy era that led to a devastating world war.

　この連鎖により、結局はどの国も長く深刻な不況へ突入し、世界大戦へとつながる暗い時代の幕開けとなった。

There was no winner in the trade war. Nations should not repeat this mistake. They should not allow the world economy to fall into the same abyss by succumbing to the temptation to retreat behind the protective walls of trade barriers.

「勝ち組」は生まれなかった。この失敗を繰り返し、内に引きこもった世界経済にしてはならない。 

It will take at least several years for the world economy to regain health. Preventing protectionism from raising its ugly head requires strong political will on the part of world leaders.

　世界景気の回復に数年はかかる。保護主義の台頭を食い止めるには、何より首脳たちの強い意思が必要だ。

The leaders of the Group of 20 major countries sent an encouraging signal in their emergency meeting on the financial crisis in November, when they pledged to work out by year-end an outline of a new trade agreement under the Doha Round of global trade talks that are still continuing.

昨年１１月の金融サミットで、多角的貿易交渉（ドーハ・ラウンド）を年末までに大枠合意する、と公約したまでは良かった。

But they failed to strike a deal by the end of the year, dimming the prospect for a successful conclusion of the negotiations.

だが合意に失敗し、交渉の先行きには悲観論が広がっている。 

Japan should strongly urge major trade powers such as the United States, Europe, China and India to reopen the trade talks as quickly as possible.

　日本はラウンドの早期再開を米欧や中国、インドなどに強く働きかけるべきだ。

As a resource-poor nation with a shrinking population, Japan will have no choice but to continue to rely on global trade for its economic well-being. Japan can contribute to the welfare of the world as a whole while protecting its own interest by working to keep global trade flowing freely.

資源に乏しく人口減少社会となった日本は、今後も貿易立国の道を歩まざるを得ない。自由貿易を守ることは国際貢献であり国益でもある。 

But it will take a lot of time to forge consensus among the 150 or so countries taking part in the Doha Round. It might be a good idea for the government to first try to establish an idealistic model for free trade agreements.

　ただ、１５０もの国が参加するラウンドの合意には時間がかかるだろう。まずは自由貿易協定の理想的なモデルを実現させる努力をしてはどうか。 

One potential candidate for such a model is the U.S.-proposed free trade zone encompassing the countries of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum.

　米国が提唱するアジア太平洋経済協力会議（ＡＰＥＣ）の自由貿易圏は候補の一つだろう。

As a first step in such efforts, the Japanese government should start negotiations for participation in the economic partnership agreement envisioned by countries in the region, including the United States, Singapore and New Zealand.

足がかりに、米国やシンガポール、ニュージーランドなどが検討している経済連携協定に、日本も参加する方向で交渉すべきだ。