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2009年6月21日 (日)

景気底打ち宣言―回復への道はまだ遠い

--The Asahi Shimbun, June 19(IHT/Asahi: June 20,2009)
EDITORIAL: Outlook on the economy
景気底打ち宣言―回復への道はまだ遠い

The government on Wednesday effectively proclaimed that the economy has bottomed out, citing signs of recovery in industrial production and exports. No doubt many people felt the announcement is divorced from reality.
 政府が事実上の「景気底打ち」宣言をした。これには多くの人が実感とのズレを感じたに違いない。

The unemployment rate is on the rise, and the ratio of job offers to job seekers is at the worst level on record. People everywhere are gripped by anxiety about their job security. Big companies are slashing summer bonuses. Wages are falling and a growing number of households are feeling the pinch. Consumers are keeping their purse strings tied tightly, and retail sales remain sluggish.
People must be wondering what warrants the government's optimistic view.
 失業率は上昇し、有効求人倍率は過去最悪。雇用の先行きは不安がいっぱいだ。大手企業が夏のボーナスを大幅にカットしているが、賃金も減って、家計が苦しいと感じる人がますます多くなっている。消費者の財布のひもは固く、モノが売れない。これで「底打ち」といえるのか……というのが人々の受け止め方だろう。

That is hardly surprising. While the government is saying the worst appears to be over, both manufacturing output and exports remain at more than 30 percent below where they were last autumn when the global economic crisis surfaced. Indeed, the pace of the steep economic downturn has slowed, allaying fears of a bottomless trough. But there are few reassuring signs of a rebound. That would be a fairer way to describe the state of the domestic economy.
 それも当然だ。底を打ったと言っても、生産も輸出も、水準は世界経済危機が一気に表面化した昨秋と比べ、まだ3割以上も低い。景気の急降下のスピードが弱まり、ようやく「底抜け」の恐怖は去った。だが回復への足がかりもなかなか見えない。現状はそんなところではないか。

The government may be hoping to stop already weak consumer spending from sinking further by telling the public that the economy has reached its nadir. It may also be trying to strengthen its political position before the Lower House election that must be called by September. The government probably wants to impress upon voters that its massive economic stimulus package has worked wonders.
 政府には、底打ち宣言で消費の萎縮(いしゅく)を食い止めたい、との狙いもありそうだ。大型の危機対策の効果と実績を演出し、総選挙に役立てたいという思惑もあるのだろう。

But this is no ordinary recession that can be overcome simply through measures spelled out in the package.
 だが、今回の不況はその程度で克服できるようなものではない。

When Japan finally emerged from the prolonged malaise following the collapse of the late-1980s asset-inflated economy, the U.S. and Chinese economies were in good shape, supporting Japan's recovery by gobbling up this nation's exports. But now, the financial systems in the United States and Europe are unstable, and it will likely be a while before their economies regain strength.
日本がバブル崩壊後の長期停滞から抜け出したころには、米国や中国の経済が好調で、輸出が力強いエンジンになった。ところが今は米国も欧州も金融システムがいまだ不安定で、回復にはかなり時間がかかると見られる。

In China, the gargantuan fiscal stimulus package adopted by the government is beginning to produce results. But it is unclear whether the Chinese economy will grow rapidly again when the effects have run their course.
 中国は大型景気対策の効果が出ているものの、息切れしたときにどこまで高成長路線を突っ走れるのか。

The global situation does not warrant calls for Japan to depend on economic recovery driven by external demand. That explains the cautiousness of Kaoru Yosano, minister in charge of economic and fiscal policy, at a news conference when he declared the domestic economy has bottomed out.
"Japan cannot recover on its own, and there will still be downside risks, depending on the course of the world economy," he said.
 とても外需頼みの回復シナリオを描けるような環境とは言えないのだ。与謝野経済財政相が底入れ宣言の記者会見で「日本単独での回復はなく、世界経済の状況によっては下ぶれリスクがある」と慎重な見方を付け加えたのは、そのためだ。

The fight against this recession is going to be long and drawn out. Policy measures designed mainly to provide a temporary stimulus won't work. The government should rather make all-out policy efforts based on a long-term perspective. Such efforts should focus on putting the economy on a stable growth track. This can be done by nurturing new industries and creating a sense of security among the public. Fixing the nation's troubled social security system and restoring fiscal health are the key.
Given the nation's demographic decline, there is a clear limit to any growth in domestic demand.
 人口減少社会の日本では内需拡大にも限界がある。となるとV字形回復が無理なのはもちろん、回復軌道は中華鍋形でもなく、底ばい状態が長いフライパン形になる可能性もある。
 この不況との闘いは長くなりそうだ。一時的な景気刺激に重点を置いた対策では、通用しない。むしろ長期的な視点から新産業を育てると同時に、社会保障や財政を立て直し、安心感を生むことで国民経済を安定させるという本格的な取り組みが問われる。

In particular, social security reform is an urgent challenge. We readily acknowledge that it will be difficult to implement drastic tax reform, such as raising the consumption tax rate, before the economy recovers. Clearly though, consumption tax is the most promising source of revenue to finance social security spending. But both the ruling and opposition parties should offer basic plans for overhauling the social safety net as key planks of their campaign platforms for the looming election.
 とくに社会保障の再建は急がねばならない。財源として有力視される消費税増税などの税制改革は景気回復まで実施に踏み切れないとしても、総選挙ではそれらに関する基本戦略を政権公約の柱に据えるべきである。

In his recent Diet face-off with Prime Minister Taro Aso, Yukio Hatoyama, president of Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan), pledged to keep the consumption tax rate unchanged for four years if his party comes to power. Aso ripped into Hatoyama, saying debate on a hike in the consumption tax rate is no longer avoidable.
Both party leaders need to talk more specifically about their policy proposals and their plans to finance them.
 党首討論で「政権を取っても4年間は消費税を増税しない」という鳩山民主党代表も、「消費税論議は避けて通れない」と批判した麻生首相も、政策と財源の具体化を語ることが必要だ。

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