衆院解散：迷走続けた「選挙の顔」 首相、遅すぎた決断

(Mainichi Japan) July 21, 2009
Aso's decision to dissolve Lower House comes too late
衆院解散：迷走続けた「選挙の顔」　首相、遅すぎた決断

Struggling Prime Minister Taro Aso's decision to dissolve the powerful House of Representatives has come too late, forcing the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to fight in a general election under the worst possible conditions.
Aso stuck to his decision to dissolve the chamber at his own discretion to suppress a campaign from within the LDP to force him to step down.
"He was elected president of the LDP as the 'face' of its election campaign. Therefore, he feared that the party would be driven into a corner if he resigned at this stage," explains a close aide to the prime minister.
However, Aso appears far from suitable to serve as the face of the LDP, after being forced to bow before a meeting of the LDP members of both houses of the Diet to apologize for its losses in a series of local elections, and ask for party unity in the campaign.
　麻生太郎首相は内閣支持率の低迷と自民党内の「麻生降ろし」に苦しみながらも、最後まで自らの手による衆院解散にこだわった。「選挙の顔として総裁に選ばれたのに、ここで辞任すれば自民党はさらに窮地に陥る」（首相周辺）との思いからだ。しかし、解散当日の２１日、党両院議員懇談会で、東京都議選など地方選の敗北について頭を下げ、結束を訴えなければならなくなった首相に「選挙の顔」の面影はない。【高塚保】

Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano, the No. 2 man in the Cabinet, shocked Aso on July 15 when he demanded that a joint plenary session of the LDP members of both houses be convened. Such an official meeting, where LDP Diet members have the right to vote, could lead to a campaign to force Aso to step down.
　副総理格の与謝野馨財務・金融担当相から両院議員総会の開催を求められた翌日の１６日、首相は河村建夫官房長官に「経済はまだ立ち直っていない。

"Japan hasn't achieved an economic recovery yet. I respected Yosano the most. I've cooperated closely with him in implementing economic policies, but ..." Aso was quoted as telling Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo Kawamura.
与謝野を一番大事にしてきた。経済政策を二人三脚でやってきたのに」と語り、ショックを隠しきれない様子だった。

It apparently flashed through Aso's mind that his grandfather, former Prime Minister Shigeru Yoshida, was forced to resign with his entire Cabinet in December 1954 after then Deputy Prime Minister Taketora Ogata and many other Cabinet members expressed stiff opposition to his intention to dissolve the Lower House.
　祖父・吉田茂元首相は、閣内ナンバー２の緒方竹虎副総理ら多くの閣僚、与党幹部から解散に反対され、１９５４年１２月、内閣総辞職に追い込まれた。

Aso refused to comply with Yosano's demand apparently because he wanted to avoid following his grandfather's footsteps.
　祖父と同じ轍（てつ）を踏むまいと考えたのか、首相は折れなかった。

"Our policies aren't wrong. We should be proud of them," Aso said, showing his determination to call a general election by appealing his achievements of economic stimulus measures, even though he split with Yosano.
「政策は間違っていない。胸を張っていいと思っている」。与謝野氏とたもとを分かっても、経済対策に取り組んだ実績を掲げて衆院選を戦う決意の表れだった。

Prime Minister Aso considered dissolving the Lower House at least three times since he took office in September last year.
　首相が解散を真剣に考えたことは０８年９月の就任以来、少なくとも３回あった。

First, he planned to dissolve the chamber in early October 2008 for a Nov. 2 general election. He attempted to take advantage of his popularity following the LDP presidential election to win a general election and ensure that he will stay in power for a long time.
最初は「０８年１０月初旬解散－１１月２日投票」。総裁選で高まった「麻生人気」を武器に衆院選で勝利し、長期政権を狙う算段だった。

However, an opinion poll that the Mainichi Shimbun conducted following the inauguration of his administration showed that the approval rating for his Cabinet stood at 45 percent, lower than he had expected. Moreover, the LDP's analysis showed it would face an uphill battle if he dissolved the Lower House at that time.
しかし、政権発足直後の毎日新聞の世論調査で内閣支持率は４５％と期待したほど上がらず、党の情勢調査も厳しい数字だったため断念した。

Next, he studied the possibility of winning a general election if he dissolved the chamber in late October 2008 for a Nov. 30 poll, and LDP Secretary-General Hiroyuki Hosoda and Diet Affairs Committee Chairman Tadamori Oshima advised him to go ahead with his planned dissolution. However, then Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa and LDP Election Strategy Council Vice Chairman Yoshihide Suga, close aides to Aso, insisted that an election should be delayed because its chance of winning was getting slimmer. In the end, Aso sided with Nakagawa and Suga.
　次いで「１０月末解散－１１月３０日投票」を検討したが、首相に近い中川昭一財務・金融担当相（当時）、菅義偉選対副委員長らが選挙情勢の悪化を理由に先送りを主張。細田博之幹事長らは解散を求めたが、首相は中川氏らの意見を受け入れた。

After the bankruptcy of U.S. financial giant Lehman Brothers in September triggered a global economic crisis, the prime minister declared that he would postpone calling a general election to place priority on economic stimulus measures. However, the economy remained sluggish and the approval rating for his Cabinet was hovering low.
９月に米証券大手リーマン・ブラザーズの経営が破綻（はたん）し、世界的な経済危機に発展。首相は解散先送りの理由に「経済対策優先」を掲げたが、その後も経済と支持率の低迷に苦しみ、「選挙の顔」は迷走を続けた。

He then considered reshuffling the LDP leadership and his Cabinet sometime between late June and early July, then dissolving the Lower House for an election on Aug. 2, 8 or 9. However, the plan was met with stiff opposition from not only within the LDP but also ruling coalition partner Komeito.
He dissolved the chamber on Tuesday after the LDP suffered a crushing defeat in the July 12 Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election. He had no choice but to go ahead with the dissolution this time after deeming that a further delay could trigger a campaign within the party to force him to step down.
　３度目に検討したのが、６月末から７月初旬にかけて党役員人事・内閣改造後に解散し、８月２日ないし８日、９日を投票日とする案。これは党内だけでなく公明党の強い反発もあって不発に終わり、首相が最後に選んだのが７月１２日の東京都議選惨敗後の解散だった。解散を先送りすれば「麻生降ろし」に火がつきかねないため、先手を打って解散するしかないと判断した。

Aso managed to suppress anti-Aso members within the LDP, but a party split is still a real fear.
　結果的に党内の「反麻生」勢力を抑え込むことには成功したが、自民党内には分裂の火種が残り、こうした混乱が党への不信感をさらに増幅させた。首相の遅すぎた決断により、自民党は最悪の状況で解散・総選挙に突入することになった。

毎日新聞　2009年7月21日　13時15分（最終更新　7月21日　14時50分）