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2009年8月 7日 (金)

被爆64年―「非核の傘」を広げるとき

--The Asahi Shimbun, Aug. 6(IHT/Asahi: August 7,2009)
EDITORIAL: 64 years and counting
被爆64年―「非核の傘」を広げるとき

This summer has special significance for Hiroshima and Nagasaki in that it is the first since U.S. President Barack Obama gave his landmark speech in Prague in April to declare that the United States will "take concrete steps toward a world without nuclear weapons."
 被爆地は今年、格別な夏を迎えた。「核兵器のない世界を目指して具体的な方策をとる」。米国のオバマ大統領がプラハ演説でそう宣言して、初めて迎える夏だからだ。

It is enormously significant that Obama said the United States, as the only nuclear power to have used a nuclear weapon, has "a moral responsibility to act." But this is not the only reason why his Prague speech was so galvanizing.
 大統領が、核を使った国として「行動する道義的責任がある」と語った意味はとても大きい。だが、プラハ演説の凄味(すごみ)は、そこにとどまらない。

In this age of globalization, the world is becoming increasingly interdependent. A nuclear explosion in any major city in the world would not only kill a great number of people but also bring the global economic system to the brink of collapse. The consequences would be the same whether it was a nuclear strike or a terrorist attack.
 グローバル化した世界は、相互依存を強めている。世界のどの経済都市で核爆発が起きても、多くの犠牲者が出るだけでなく、世界の経済システムも破局のふちに追いやられる。核戦争でも核テロでも結果は同じことだ。

The argument that nuclear deterrence is more effective in securing stability around the world still enjoys considerable support among the nuclear powers and their allies. But succumbing to the allure of nuclear deterrence could result in the acceleration of nuclear proliferation. The world is also facing a real danger of nuclear arms falling into the hands of terrorists. If that nightmare becomes reality, the risks would be immeasurable.
 核抑止を続けた方が世界は安定するとの考えが核兵器国や同盟国で根強い。だが、核抑止の魔力にひかれて、核拡散が進む恐れがある。テロ集団の手に核が渡る危険もある。それが現実になった時のリスクは計り知れない。

What must be done? Shouldn't we come up with a new security strategy to move toward a nuclear-free world? That is the question posed by Obama.
 どうすべきか。核のない世界に向けて動くことこそ、新たな安全保障戦略の基本ではないのか。オバマ大統領は、そこを問いかけている。

On Obama's initiative, it has been decided that leaders of the United Nations Security Council member countries will meet on Sept. 24 to discuss nuclear issues. No pre-emptive nuclear attacks
 大統領の音頭とりで、9月24日には核問題に関する国連安全保障理事会の首脳級会合を開くことも決まった。

■先制不使用を義務に
Creating a security framework that doesn't rely on nuclear arms will require formulating and implementing a broad array of policies. We have a raft of proposals for countries that have nuclear arsenals. In particular, we want them to work on spreading the "nonnuclear umbrella."
 核に頼らない安全保障体制を構築していくには、たくさんの政策の積み重ねがいる。核兵器国には山ほど注文したいが、ここでは特に、「非核の傘」を広げていくことを強く求めたい。

The idea is that nuclear powers will pledge not to use nuclear weapons against any nonnuclear countries that are part of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). If this is established as a global rule, nonnuclear parties of the treaty could significantly reduce their risks of coming under nuclear attack. This is how the nonnuclear umbrella works.
 核不拡散条約(NPT)に入った非核国には、核を使用しない。これを世界標準として確立すれば、NPT加盟の非核国は、核攻撃のリスクを大幅に減らせる。それが「非核の傘」だ。

Expanding the nonnuclear umbrella would help decrease the role of nuclear weapons and lead to a substantial reduction in the number of nuclear weapons in the world. This approach, which would contribute to both arms reduction and global security, should be promoted as much as possible while Obama is in office.
 「非核の傘」を広げれば、核兵器の役割を縮小でき、保有数の減少にもつながる。オバマ大統領の任期のうちに、軍縮と安全保障の一挙両得を大きく前進させたい。

There are many ways to expand the nonnuclear umbrella. One would be a Security Council resolution that bans nuclear attacks against nonnuclear countries in the NPT camp. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon has said that it is possible for the Security Council permanent members, which are all nuclear powers, to guarantee they will not use nuclear arms to attack countries without nuclear capability. Such a Security Council resolution should be adopted as soon as possible.
 「非核の傘」を広げる方法は、いくつもある。第一は、国連安保理で、NPTに入っている非核国への核使用は認められないと明確に決議することだ。潘基文・国連事務総長は、核保有国でもある国連安保理の常任理事国が非核国に核攻撃しないと保証するのは可能だろうと指摘している。一刻も早く、実現すべきである。

A second way would make use of nuclear-free zone treaties. There are treaties on nuclear-weapon-free zones for five regions--Latin America, the South Pacific, Africa, Southeast Asia and Central Asia. The treaty for Africa has not yet come into force. Each of these treaties comes with a protocol that commits the nuclear powers to refraining from nuclear attacks against the treaty participants.
 第二の方法は、非核地帯条約の活用だ。ラテンアメリカ、南太平洋、アフリカ、東南アジア、中央アジアには非核地帯条約がある。アフリカだけが未発効だが、いずれの条約にも、核兵器国は条約加盟国を核攻撃しないことを約束する議定書がある。

Only the nuclear-free zone treaty for Latin America, however, has been ratified by all the five original members of the nuclear club--the United States, Russia, Britain, France and China. The nonnuclear umbrella should be established as an obligation under international law through efforts to put the treaty for Africa into effect as soon as possible and to have the nuclear powers ratify all the protocols to those treaties.
 だが、米ロ英仏中の5核兵器国すべてが議定書を批准しているのはラテンアメリカだけ。アフリカでの条約発効を急ぎ、同時に核兵器国がすべての議定書を批准して、「非核の傘」を広く国際法上の義務とすべきだ。

A third way would be for nuclear-armed nations to declare that they will not stage pre-emptive nuclear strikes and thereby confine the role of their arsenals to deterrence to nuclear attacks from other countries. Since nonnuclear countries cannot stage nuclear attacks, such declarations by nuclear-capable nations would spread the nonnuclear umbrella drastically.
 第三の方法は、核兵器国が核先制不使用を宣言し、核の役割を相手の核攻撃の抑止に限定することだ。非核国はもともと核先制使用などできないから、核兵器国が先制不使用を確約すれば、「非核の傘」は一気に拡大する。

■北東アジアに非核地帯
The Japanese government is cautious about the United States vowing not to launch pre-emptive nuclear strikes. North Korea has conducted nuclear tests, and the reclusive regime may have biological and chemical weapons as well. Japan's position is that the option of a pre-emptive nuclear strike by the United States should be left open to deter Pyongyang from using those weapons.
 日本政府は、米国による核先制不使用宣言には慎重だ。北朝鮮は核実験しただけでなく、生物・化学兵器も持っている可能性がある。その使用を抑えるために、核先制使用も選択肢として残すべきだ、という立場だ。

However, the credibility of Japan's nonnuclear diplomacy would be badly damaged if Tokyo emphasizes the importance of nuclear deterrence too much and obstructs Obama's efforts to reduce the role of nuclear weapons and promote nuclear disarmament. Even if it wants to keep nuclear deterrence intact for the time being, Japan should adopt a policy of promoting the nonnuclear umbrella. Nuclear-free zone in Northeast Asia
 だが、日本が核抑止を強調するあまり、核兵器の役割を減らし、核軍縮を進めようとするオバマ構想の障害になっては、日本の非核外交は台無しだ。当面、核抑止を残すにせよ、同時に「非核の傘」を広げていく政策を進めるべきだろう。

One worthwhile idea would be a nuclear-free zone treaty for Northeast Asia. Japan and South Korea could take the initiative by signing such a treaty first and putting it into force. If the United States, China and Russia all ratify a protocol that bans them from launching nuclear attacks against Japan and South Korea, a nonnuclear umbrella would be raised for the region.
 一案は、北東アジアにも非核地帯条約をつくることだ。日韓だけでも先に締結して発効させ、米中ロなどが日韓に核攻撃しない議定書を批准して、「非核の傘」を築く。

North Korea should be able to join the treaty for protection under the nonnuclear umbrella after it abandons its nuclear program and returns to the NPT. This prospect would give North Korea a strong incentive to abandon its nuclear ambitions and help bolster regional stability.
 北朝鮮については、非核化してNPTに戻った段階で条約に加わり、「非核の傘」で守られるようにする。そうすれば北朝鮮が核放棄する利益は高まるし、地域の安定にも役立つだろう。

It is also vital to deal with China's rapid military buildup. During the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue meeting in Washington in July, Obama underlined the importance of bilateral cooperation. He cited the denuclearization of North Korea as one such policy challenge, saying neither Washington nor Beijing has an interest in a nuclear arms race in East Asia. "A balance of terror cannot hold," he said in his speech at the conference.
 軍事費を拡大させる中国への対応も欠かせない。オバマ大統領は7月の米中戦略対話で、東アジアでの核軍拡競争は両国の利益にそぐわないと明言し、北朝鮮の非核化などで協力していくことの重要性を強調した。「恐怖の均衡は続けられない」とも語った。

The U.S. and Chinese economies are rapidly become entwined. Their relations are completely different from those between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Back then, the two superpowers could have destroyed the other's industry without suffering much damage to its own economy.
 米中は急速に経済の相互依存を強めている。たとえ相手の産業を破壊しても影響が少なかった冷戦期の米ソとはまったく異なる関係だ。

■中国も軍縮の輪に
Japan should understand the reality of the U.S.-China relationship and propose a plan for enhancing regional stability while curtailing the role of nuclear arms in Northeast Asia. The Japan-U.S. security alliance should evolve from the current security architecture based primarily on nuclear deterrence into a platform for broader cooperation to expand the nonnuclear umbrella and enhance arms control in the region. That would give a big boost to efforts to engage China in nuclear disarmament efforts. Integrating China into arms reduction
 日本も米中の現実を認識し、北東アジアでの核の役割を減らしながら、地域の安定をはかる構想を示していく必要がある。核抑止でつながるだけでなく、「非核の傘」拡大や地域の軍備管理で連携していく。日米同盟をそんな形に進化させれば、中国を核軍縮の輪に加える、大きな力になるだろう。

The problem of nuclear proliferation in the world is linked closely to regional and religious conflicts. India and Pakistan have both carried out nuclear tests. Israel is widely regarded as a virtual nuclear power. Iran is continuing with its program to enrich uranium. Regional or religious conflicts are behind all these examples of nuclear proliferation.
 世界の核拡散問題には地域対立や宗教的対立がからんでいる。核実験をしたインド、パキスタン。事実上の核保有国とされるイスラエル。ウラン濃縮を続けるイラン。いずれの場合も、そうだ。

Pushing these countries into giving up their nuclear ambitions will require tenacious efforts to resolve the conflicts and convince them that they only endanger themselves by possessing nuclear arsenals.
これらの国を非核化へ向かわせるには、根気強く対立をほぐしつつ、核保有がむしろ国を危うくすることを説いていくしかない。

As the only country to have come under nuclear attack, Japan should make greater contributions to such diplomatic efforts.
 唯一の被爆国として日本は、そうした外交でももっと知恵を絞りたい。

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