０９総選挙に問う―成熟日本に新産業革命を

--The Asahi Shimbun, Aug. 14(IHT/Asahi: August 15,2009)
EDITORIAL: Growth strategy
０９総選挙に問う―成熟日本に新産業革命を

■成長アジアの市場を共有する仕組みを作ろう

■低炭素社会、超高齢化時代のリーダー目指せ

Japan's rapid recovery from the devastation of World War II and strong postwar growth were admired by the world as an economic "miracle."
　世界が「奇跡」と目を見張った戦後日本のスピード復興と高度成長。

Japanese confidence in the country's performance was bolstered in 1969, when its gross national product surpassed that of West Germany, making Japan the second-largest economy in the Western bloc after the United States.
その成果に国民が自信を深めたのは１９６９年だった。日本の国民総生産（ＧＮＰ）が西ドイツを抜き、米国に次いで自由世界２位となった。

But Japan is about to lose the No. 2 spot to China, whose economy has been growing at a breakneck pace.
　だが、急成長を続ける中国の猛追で、「２位」は風前のともしびだ。

Now, Japan is gripped by pessimism, in a sharp contrast to the uplifting mood of 40 years ago.
　経済大国の階段を駆け上がった４０年前とは対照的な悲観論が漂う。

The country is reeling from an unprecedented economic crisis, and people are concerned about the prospects of low economic growth and the shrinking population.
未曽有の経済危機、低成長のわなから抜け出せない焦り、人口減少時代の不安。

The heady days of booming economic growth in tandem with an expanding population are long gone.
　人口増加とともに容易に成長できる時代は去った。

Some might shrug and say it is time that Japanese people sat back and enjoyed the fruits of their matured economy.
ならば成熟経済の果実をゆっくり味わえばいい、との考え方もあろう。

But unless a country's gross domestic product grows, it is difficult to maintain its standard of living.
だが、所得の合計でもある国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）を増やさなければ、生活水準を保つことも難しい。

A new model for economic growth is crucial to increase the economic pie and shake off the nation's sense of stagnation.
　経済全体のパイを効果的に増やし、閉塞（へいそく）感をぬぐい去るには、新たな国家的成長モデルが必要とされている。

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To that end, Japan must take up three challenges: compete and coexist with the world's emerging economies such as China, overcome the consequences of an aging society and reshape the nation into a low-carbon society.
　それには、直面する三つの課題に取り組む必要がある。中国など新興国との競争と共生。超高齢社会の克服。そして低炭素社会への改革だ。

While these tasks are all daunting, there is no reason to worry. Japan can turn these challenges to its advantage if it approaches them from new angles.
いずれも大きな関門だが、悲観する必要はない。見方を変えれば、どれも日本にプラスに転じられるものだ。

Here is one example. China is not only morphing into a formidable rival to Japan; it is also shaping up to be a rich, neighboring market. The world is looking to China's robust growth to help pull the global economy out of the recession.
　たとえば世界同時不況に打ち勝つ原動力の一つとして世界が注視する中国の成長は、手ごわいライバルの台頭であると同時に、日本に隣接する市場が豊かになることも意味する。

Asia, which includes India and Southeast Asia, offers far greater economic growth potential than the United States or Europe. The region's middle class has expanded to nearly 900 million people.
　インドや東南アジアも含むアジア域内の潜在成長力は米欧よりずっと大きい。この地域の中間層人口はすでに９億人近くに膨らんでいる。

Japan needs to devise a strategy to maintain competitiveness in this new phase of economic globalization led by multiple key players.
　多極化という新段階を迎えたグローバリゼーションの渦中に打って出る戦略が必要だ。

Japan should work to integrate Asian countries into a common market in which all the region's countries share in its wealth, while expanding global trade. This would create huge opportunities for Japanese business.
成長するアジア市場を域内各国が共有する「共通市場」化を、世界貿易の拡大と両立させつつ推進すべきである。そうすれば、日本企業に巨大な事業機会が広がる。

To transform into a low-carbon society, Japan should slash greenhouse gas emissions within an international framework.
　低炭素社会への対応はどうか。国際的な枠組みのなかで、温室効果ガスの大幅削減に取り組む。

While it will be a demanding task for a manufacturing economy like Japan, the transition will open up great opportunities to develop new technologies and products.
ものづくり国家の新たな試練だが、これも新しい技術や製品を育てるチャンスだ。

Solar power generation is a case in point.
　たとえば太陽光発電。

According to Sharp Corp. Chairman Katsuhiko Machida, whose company is a major manufacturer of solar cells: "Japan's solar cell plants are like oil fields. Oil-producing countries in the Middle East have asked our company to build (solar cell) factories there."
「日本の太陽電池工場はいわば『油田』。中東産油国からの誘致もある」とシャープの町田勝彦会長は言う。

Japan can emerge as a winner in a low-carbon society if it improves on such world-class environmental technologies.
こうした世界最高水準の環境技術に磨きをかければ、低炭素社会の勝者になれる。

Meanwhile, the aging of its population means Japan will find it increasingly difficult to secure labor force and maintain its pension and medical insurance systems.
　一方、超高齢化が進むと、労働力確保や年金・医療保険制度の維持が難しくなる。

Given that concerns about these prospects are crimping consumer spending, Japan must make it a key economic priority to bolster its social safety net and allay public anxiety.
その不安がいま消費を萎縮（いしゅく）させていることを考えれば、社会的な安全網を強化して国民不安を解消することは重要な経済政策でもある。

Populations are aging fast in many other countries, too, such as Italy and South Korea. China's 1.3-billion population will also start graying quickly in the near future.
　イタリア、韓国など高齢化が進む国は少なくない。人口１３億人の中国もやがて高齢化が急速に進む。

But Japan is the world's first country to go through this radical demographic change, and it will be closely watched as a model of how to build a successful advanced-age society.
世界で最初に超高齢化を経験する日本はモデル社会づくりの先行例となる。

Japan could establish world-leading industries if it promotes the development of nursing care robots and highly advanced medical and welfare services through policy incentives, including deregulation and tax breaks.
規制緩和や投資減税などの政策誘導で、いち早く介護ロボットや先端的な医療福祉サービスを開発し、世界をリードする有力産業に育てることも夢ではない。

If such cutting-edge products and services create new jobs and ease the burden of people caring for aging family members, tackling the challenges of the aging society will lay the foundation for renewed growth.
　それが新たな雇用を生み、サービス利用者が家族の介護で働くことを制約されないような世の中にすることができるなら、超高齢化への挑戦そのものが成長の新しい柱となる。

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A fundamental question as the nation gears up for the Aug. 30 Lower House election, which could result in a change of government, is how to secure a decent future for our nation.
　日本はこれからどうやって食べていくのか。政権選択をかけたこの総選挙では、そこが根底から問われている。

Unfortunately, the election manifestoes of neither the Liberal Democratic Party nor the main opposition Democratic Party of Japan offer a grand vision on this question.
だが残念なことに自民党も民主党も政権公約には大きな処方箋（せん）がない。

Granted, the LDP has set a few numerical targets, such as achieving economic growth of an annualized 2 percent in the latter half of fiscal 2010 and creating demand worth 40 trillion to 60 trillion yen over the next three years.
　自民党は「１０年度後半には年率２％の経済成長を実現」「今後３年間で４０兆～６０兆円の需要創出」と数値目標を掲げた。

The DPJ, criticized for offering few growth strategies, has added some campaign promises, such as transforming Japan's economy into one led by domestic demand.
民主党も成長戦略が不備との批判を受けて「内需主導型経済への転換」などの公約を追加した。

But both parties have failed to offer a road map to reach these goals, leaving their entire economic strategies unclear.
しかし、いずれも実現の道筋を示してはおらず、戦略の全体像が不明確だ。

To achieve economic growth, political parties need to put together a comprehensive program that draws on the synergies of government policies and taps private-sector resources in Japan and abroad.
　経済成長のための戦略は、内外でもっと民間活力を引き出すとともに、政策の相乗効果を発揮できる総合設計とすることが必要だ。

In addition, the parties need to win the public's understanding by explaining not just the benefits that growth will bring, but also the pain and burdens that will accompany the shift in the nation's industrial structure.
また、国民の受益だけでなく、産業構造の転換に伴う痛みや負担増についても積極的に説明し、理解を求めなければならない。

Turning Asia into a booming common market will call for the creation of a free trade zone centered on Japan, China and South Korea.
　アジアを「共通市場」として繁栄させるには、日中韓を中心とする自由貿易圏づくりが課題となる。

Now is the time to seriously consider the vision of an East Asian community, along with a common Asian currency.
東アジア共同体や、アジア共通通貨構想も真剣に検討する時期を迎えている。

Meanwhile, Japan should also work toward concluding a free trade agreement with the United States.
　一方、日米間での自由貿易協定（ＦＴＡ）の推進も、避けて通れないテーマである。

To overcome the fallout from a liberalization of farm imports, Japan will have to carry out drastic agricultural reforms. We may have to scrap the acreage-reduction program and introduce income-supplementing payments to farmers, for example.
農産物の輸入自由化の試練を乗り越えるために、減反廃止や戸別所得補償の導入など抜本的な農政改革が求められるだろう。

Expansion of the distribution networks between Japan and other Asian countries will also be imperative.
　日本とアジア諸国との物流もさらに太く便利なものにしなければならない。

One effective way to do this will be to enter into projects to build highways, railways and ports in other Asian countries at the planning stage, perhaps by mobilizing the government's official development assistance programs.
それには政府の途上国援助（ＯＤＡ）も活用して、アジアの幹線道路や鉄道、港湾の整備などに計画段階から協力するのが効果的だ。

Japan must view all these challenges as golden opportunities and reinvent itself as a matured economy.
　試練を好機ととらえ、成熟時代の日本をつくり直す。

More than ever before, Japan's political leaders are required to offer innovative visions and a broad perspective to lead the way for a new industrial revolution.
新たな産業革命のための広い視野と構想力が、今ほど政治に問われている時はない。