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2009年9月 9日 (水)

G20―見えてきた新首相の課題

--The Asahi Shimbun, Sept. 8(IHT/Asahi: September 9,2009)
EDITORIAL: The G-20 summit
G20―見えてきた新首相の課題

Almost a year has passed since the collapse of U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers, a development which threw the world economy into a "once-in-a-century" crisis. While the global recession is not yet over, signs of recovery are gaining momentum.
 世界経済を「100年に1度」といわれる危機に突き落とした米大手証券リーマン・ブラザーズの破綻(はたん)から間もなく1年。同時不況はなお続くが、回復への動きが強まりつつある。

In a meeting in London last week, finance ministers and central bank governors of the Group of 20 major economies stressed the effects of the actions their governments have taken in response to the crisis--fiscal stimulus packages worth 500 trillion yen in total and measures to support financial systems.
 ロンドンで開いた20カ国・地域(G20)の財務相・中央銀行総裁会議は、共同声明で「断固たる協調した政策措置が景気後退を止めた」と、総額約500兆円にのぼる財政出動などの対策と金融支援の成果をうたった。

"Our unprecedented, decisive and concerted policy action has helped to arrest the decline and boost global demand," the members said in a joint statement. The declaration reflects their confidence based on the fact that this new framework of international cooperation, which involves China and other emerging economies, succeeded in averting a replay of the Great Depression.
これは、世界恐慌の二の舞いを防ぐ上で中国などを含む新たな国際協調が成功をおさめたことへの自信の表れだ。

Leaders of the G-20 nations are slated to gather in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, later this month for a financial summit. Yukio Hatoyama, president of the Democratic Party of Japan, will attend the meeting as Japan's new prime minister. The London meeting offered some clues as to what Hatoyama should do at the Pittsburgh summit.
 再来週には米国ピッツバーグでG20首脳会合が開かれ、民主党の鳩山代表が新首相として出席する。新首相がそこで担うべき役割も、ロンドンの会議から見えてきた。

The communique, while claiming the global economy is improving, nevertheless said, "We will continue to implement decisively our necessary financial support measures and expansionary monetary and fiscal policies... ." That is precisely what the countries need to do, given the rising unemployment rate in the United States, Europe and Japan and the possibility that major economies could stall again if policy efforts are relaxed now.
 声明は、世界経済は改善しているが、「必要な金融支援措置および拡張的金融・財政措置の断固たる実施を継続する」とした。米欧や日本での失業率悪化や、対策の手を抜けば景気が再び失速する危険があることなどを考えれば当然のことだ。

Hatoyama needs to express his commitment to supporting policy cooperation among the G-20 nations and make a convincing explanation about how his party's election promises will stoke Japan's economic growth by expanding domestic demand.
 新首相は、G20の協調を力強く支えることを表明するとともに、総選挙で公約した諸政策の実施が内需拡大を通じて日本の成長につながることを説得力をもって説明しなければならない。

One defining theme of the Hatoyama government is structural reform of the state budget, as symbolized by the DPJ's pledge to cut public works spending to finance a new child allowance program. The DPJ claims its policy agenda as a whole is economically "neutral." But the initial effect could be fiscal tightening. Hatoyama should promise to the world that his priority will be on economic recovery.
 公共事業を削減して子ども手当を始めるなど、歳出構造の変換が新政権の看板のひとつだ。全体として景気に「中立的」とはいうが、当面の歳出は緊縮的に傾く恐れもある。景気最優先の運営を世界に約束する必要がある。

In addition to promising cooperation with the rest of the world in overcoming the global recession, Hatoyama should also make constructive proposals for preventing a similar crisis in the future.
 世界同時不況の克服に力を合わせるだけでなく、危機の再発防止に向けても積極的に発言したい。

Especially important is reining in the compensation of the CEOs of financial institutions. Blinded by the hefty bonuses offered as rewards for big profits, top executives of many financial institutions recklessly sold risky financial instruments. When their companies incurred heavy losses due to the financial collapse, they then turned to their governments for tax-funded bailouts. To ensure this won't happen again, nations need to effectively tighten financial regulations.
 とくに金融機関の経営者らの報酬規制は重要だ。高額報酬に目がくらんで金融商品を無謀なまでに売りまくり、バブル崩壊で損が出たら税金による救済にすがりつく。そうした事態を繰り返さないよう、各国がしっかりした金融規制に踏み切る必要がある。

In this regard, another key issue is how to bolster the capital bases of financial firms after the economy regains strength. There are detailed rules on the capital adequacy of banks. But the shadow banking system, which involves investment banks and other non-bank financial institutions, has not been subject to any effective regulations concerning their capital health. There are good reasons for imposing capital requirements on these institutions.
 再発防止策のもうひとつの柱は、景気回復後に金融機関の自己資本をどう増強するのか、という問題だ。これまで銀行には細かな規制があったが、証券会社などの「影の銀行」と呼ばれる部門は野放しだった。この部分の規制の強化も当然である。

Hatoyama will be in a position to make a meaningful contribution to international efforts to put the world economy back on track and establish a system to prevent a similar crisis from flaring. He can do so by speaking about Japan's experiences in dealing with the bad debt mess left by the collapse of its own bubble economy and about the process of restoring confidence in its financial system.
 新首相は、日本が経験した不良債権問題や金融システムの信頼回復の筋道を改めて世界に発信し、景気回復の機運作りと危機の再発防止策づくりに貢献できる立場にいる。

Reform of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank is also important for enhancing international cooperation for overcoming the current crisis and preventing a new one.
 国際通貨基金(IMF)や世界銀行の改革も、危機克服や再発防止への協調強化という観点から重要だ。

One major challenge is to give a bigger say to emerging and developing countries. Hatoyama should voice strong support to the idea at the Pittsburgh summit.
 新興国をはじめ途上国の発言権を拡大することが課題とされているが、その積極的な後押しをするという役割も求められる。

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