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2012年9月 1日 (土)

南海トラフ地震 減災対策を着実に進めたい

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Sep. 1, 2012)
Disaster-preparedness measures must be steadily pushed forward
南海トラフ地震 減災対策を着実に進めたい(8月31日付・読売社説)

Measures to prepare for and minimize damage from a gigantic earthquake and tsunami must be implemented unwaveringly.
 巨大地震と津波による深刻な被害を最小限に食い止めるため、減災対策を着実に進めたい。

Two Cabinet Office expert panels released damage predictions Wednesday regarding a potential "Nankai Trough Earthquake," a severe tremor caused by multiple concurrent or sequential earthquakes--likely involving what are known as Tokai, Tonankai or Nankai quakes--centered in the Nankai Trough that stretches from off Shizuoka Prefecture down to Shikoku and Kyushu.
 東海、東南海、南海などの地震が連動する「南海トラフ巨大地震」について、内閣府の有識者会議が被害想定を公表した。

If the sea bottom shifts off this wide stretch of shoreline from the Tokai region down to Kyushu, a huge earthquake up to magnitude 9 on the Richter scale could take place. Such a temblor could leave as many as 323,000 people dead, the estimates stated.
 東海から九州沖までの海底が広範に動くと、マグニチュード9級の巨大地震になり、犠牲者数は最大で32万3000人に上る。

The most lethal recorded earthquake in Japan to date was the 1923 Great Kanto Earthquake, which claimed the lives of more than 105,000 people.
 国内の地震では、これまで、10万5000人以上とされる関東大震災の犠牲者数が最多だった。

Under the expert panels' projections, fatalities from a tsunami caused by a Nankai Trough Earthquake could hit 230,000, accounting for 70 percent of the deaths caused by the disaster. Such colossal fatalities would be due to tsunami more than five meters high on average striking 124 cities, towns and villages in Tokyo and 12 prefectures.
 想定では、津波の犠牲者数が23万人で、全体の7割を占める。13都県124市町村で、津波の高さが平均5メートルを超えるためだ。

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Quick evacuation key

Fatalities from earthquake-related damage such as collapsing buildings could reach a maximum of 82,000, according to the estimates.
建物倒壊など地震による犠牲者数も8万2000人に及ぶ。

Such a situation would be a national crisis.
 「国難」とも言えよう。

Based on these projections, the central and relevant local governments must cooperate in planning effective countermeasures, such as securing sufficient evacuation routes and facilities.
 この想定を参考に、政府や関係自治体が協力して、津波避難所や避難ルートの整備など、有効な対策を講じる必要がある。

The probability of such a megaquake actually occurring is, of course, rather slim.
 無論、これほどの巨大地震が起きる可能性は大きくない。

In the course of the panel discussions, some experts expressed concern that local governments would simply give up on formulating effective countermeasures in the face of the enormous damage estimates associated with the strongest possible earthquake.
有識者会議でも、最大級を前提にすると「自治体や住民が対策をあきらめる」と懸念する声が出た。

However, the most bitter lesson among many drawn from the Great East Japan Earthquake is that past projections of earthquake damage were too mild and disaster preparations were far from sufficient.
 しかし、想定が甘く、備えが疎(おろそ)かだったことが、東日本大震災の教訓である。

Taking this into account, the expert panels released a set of specific steps they recommend be taken to reduce damage from a disaster.
 有識者会議は、具体的な減災対策も提示している。

For instance, if all residents of the areas affected by an earthquake begin evacuating within 10 minutes after the tremor hits, the number of fatalities due to tsunami could be reduced by 80 percent, the experts claimed. Their report stressed the importance of quick evacuation in the earliest possible phase of the disaster.
 地震後、10分以内に全員が避難を始めれば、津波の犠牲者は想定より8割少なくできるとして、素早い避難の重要性を指摘した。

Also, if 100 percent of buildings met the earthquake-resistance requirements under the Building Standards Law instead of the current 76 percent, fatalities from collapsed buildings in the earthquake would also be cut by roughly 80 percent, the expert panels stated.
 建築基準法の耐震基準を満たした建物の比率が、今の76%から100%に上がれば、倒壊による犠牲者も同程度減らせるという。

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Industrial complexes in danger

Achieving these two steps would reduce fatalities to 61,000, about one-fifth of the maximum projected 323,000 victims. This figure should serve as a good reference for the national and local entities crafting disaster-preparedness measures.
 これで犠牲者の総数は、約5分の1の6万1000人になる。政府や自治体の参考になろう。

However, given the severe state of the government's finances, undertaking the large-scale public works projects necessary to prepare for such a disaster, such as building sea walls, will be difficult.
 厳しい財政状況の下、防潮堤建設など大規模な公共事業は容易ではない。

Under the circumstances, we believe priority should be placed on programs that can be implemented immediately, such as designating buildings to be used as shelters and improving disaster drills.
避難ビルの確保や避難訓練の強化など、すぐに着手できる対策を優先することが大切だ。

The areas that would be devastated by a megaquake include zones thick with industrial sites. Quick to realize the possible danger, an increasing number of companies have begun taking such steps as moving offices and plants to higher ground and setting up their own disaster shelters.
 被災が予想される地域は、産業の集積地も多い。高台移転を検討したり、自前の津波避難所を設けたりする企業が増えつつある。

We urge the government to provide support for small and midsized companies, which tend to be slow in taking action to prepare for disasters.
 対応が遅れがちな中小企業の支援策も必要だろう。

The government has hammered out plans for a special law that would accelerate construction of facilities needed to reduce disaster-related damage in areas susceptible to large earthquakes.
 政府は、関係地域を対象に、必要な防災施設の整備をさらに促進する特別措置法制定の方針を打ち出している。

The government is also reported to have plans in the works to expand areas covered by earthquake-forecasting networks to address a possible Tokai Earthquake.
東海地震を対象とした発生予知の範囲を拡大することも検討するという。

However, some have criticized these plans, saying there is no way to predict earthquakes. We hope in-depth discussions will be held regarding any legislation to be drafted on the matter, including whether such skepticism over earthquake forecasting is warranted.
 ただ、地震の予知はできないとの批判もある。その是非を含め、法整備の論議を深めるべきだ。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Aug. 31, 2012)
(2012年8月31日01時19分  読売新聞)

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