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2012年10月26日 (金)

放射能拡散予測 原発で最悪の事故防ぐ一助に

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Oct. 26, 2012)
N-disaster simulations should help prevent the worst from occurring
放射能拡散予測 原発で最悪の事故防ぐ一助に(10月25日付・読売社説)

How might radioactive substances spread from the nation's 16 nuclear power plants should they be hit by serious accidents? The Nuclear Regulation Authority on Wednesday released maps based on its diffusion simulation results.
 全国16の原子力発電所で重大事故が起きた場合に、放射性物質がどう拡散するか。政府の原子力規制委員会が、その予測地図を公表した。

The government has refrained from conducting this kind of simulation on its own for fear of heightening anxiety among residents around the plants.
 政府はこれまで、住民の不安を煽(あお)ることを恐れ、こうした予測を実施していなかった。

However, it is surely necessary to simulate worst-case scenarios in the course of preparing disaster management measures.
だが、防災対策で最悪事態を想定するのは必要なことだろう。

Local governments around these facilities have to compile disaster management plans by March next year. They should refer to the new data as they make steady efforts on those plans.
 原発の周辺自治体は、来年3月までに防災計画を策定することになっている。関係自治体は、予測結果を参考に、作業を着実に進めねばならない。

The NRA regards its simulations only as rough estimates because geographical features were not taken into account and the data did not reflect the constantly changing direction of the wind.
 規制委は、今回の予測が現実の地形を考慮しておらず、複雑な風向変化を反映していないため、あくまで目安と位置づけている。

The NRA should provide the affected local governments with detailed explanations of the simulations to minimize uncertainty among residents. We urge the organization to help those municipalities in compiling their plans.
 予測結果が無用な不安を広げぬよう、規制委は関係自治体に丁寧に説明し、防災計画作りを後押ししてもらいたい。

However, there is cause for concern regarding the simulation results for four facilities, including Tokyo Electric Power Co.'s Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant in Niigata Prefecture and Kansai Electric Power Co.'s Oi plant in Fukui Prefecture.
 気がかりなのは、東京電力柏崎刈羽原発と関西電力大飯原発など4原発に関する予測結果だ。

===

30-km standard is reasonable

The NRA has said it will designate a 30-kilometer-radius zone around each plant as a priority area under the new disaster management guidelines it is now drafting. Governments in these areas will be urged to take safety measures to be prepared for an emergency.
 規制委は、策定作業中の新防災指針案で、事前の対策を求める重点区域を、原発から半径30キロ圏とする方針を示している。

However, the simulations showed that there could be some areas more than 30 kilometers from the plants where accumulated radiation readings could reach 100 millisieverts--the level at which international standards consider it necessary for residents to evacuate--in seven days. According to the results for the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant, for example, such high levels of radioactive substances could reach as far as Uonuma, about 40 kilometers away.
 だが、事故後1週間の積算被曝(ひばく)線量が避難の国際基準とされる計100ミリ・シーベルトに達する地域を見ると、4原発では30キロ圏の外側にも広がっている。柏崎刈羽では、約40キロ離れた新潟県魚沼市にまで影響が及ぶ、と予測された。

"It's good enough to designate the 30-kilometer-radius zones as priority areas," NRA Chairman Shunichi Tanaka said during a press conference Wednesday. "In case of an accident, areas beyond the zones should respond to it by measuring [levels of radiation in their areas]."
 田中俊一規制委員長は、「重点区域は30キロ圏で足りる。それ以上は事故時に(放射線量を)実測して対応すればいい」との見解を示している。

We believe his approach is reasonable to avoid unnecessary confusion.
混乱を避ける意味で、妥当な考え方と言えよう。

Nonetheless, it is up to local governments to decide how to respond to a disaster. If prefectural and other local governments wish to expand the scope of priority areas, they would have to make arrangements beyond prefectural borders--such as how to evacuate residents, deliver necessary goods and secure enough shelters. It will be necessary for the central government to support coordination among local governments involved.
 とはいえ、防災対策は自治体が主体的に決めるものだ。県などが区域を広げれば、県境をまたぐ避難や物資輸送、避難地確保も問題となる。政府も関係自治体間の調整を支援する必要があろう。

===

NRA should refine its projections

Regarding its skill at predicting the diffusion of radioactive substances from nuclear power plants, the NRA should aim at enhancing efficiency.
 拡散の予測技術自体についても、規制委は今後、さらに性能の向上を目指すべきだ。

A more refined level of simulations could help local governments prepare better disaster management measures, as well as plans on how to evacuate residents safely following the outbreak of an accident.
 高度な予測が可能になれば、防災対策の一層の充実につながるうえ、事故時の避難対策にも役立つのではないか。

First and foremost, it is important to prevent such a serious nuclear accident from taking place.
 もとより、こうした事故を起こさないことが大切だ。

Nuclear power plants nationwide have already implemented emergency safety measures, such as increasing their capacity to withstand tsunami and securing more reliable sources of emergency power.
 すでに各地の原発で、津波対策や非常用電源の強化など緊急安全対策が施されており、

As a result, safety at these facilities is better now than it was prior to the outbreak of the accident at TEPCO's Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant after the March 11, 2011, earthquake and tsunami.
東電福島第一原発事故の発生前に比べ、当面の安全性は向上している。

They have also started other measures, including investigations to find out if there are any active faults near plant premises.
活断層の確認なども始まっている。

The NRA has been working on new safety standards for nuclear power plants. It should compile them as soon as possible so they can be used in making decisions on whether idle nuclear reactors can be reactivated.
 規制委は、再稼働の判断材料とするためにも、検討中の新たな安全基準を早急に整備すべきだ。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Oct. 25, 2012)
(2012年10月25日02時03分  読売新聞)

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