節電目標見送り それでも電力不足は深刻だ

The Yomiuri Shimbun April 28, 2013
Potential power shortages remain despite govt decision not to set targets
節電目標見送り　それでも電力不足は深刻だ（4月27日付・読売社説）

The government has decided not to set numerical targets for companies and households to save energy this summer.
　政府は今夏、企業や家庭に対し、数値目標を掲げた節電要請を見送る方針を決めた。

The decision came after government projections showed that utilities nationwide could have an average supply surplus of about 6 percent even if the nation is hit by scorching heat and demand for electricity peaks in August. The estimates also showed that even areas served by Kansai Electric Power Co.--which is expected to have the lowest excess capacity among the utilities--would have a 3 percent surplus.
　８月が猛暑でも、電力需要ピーク時に、供給余力が全国平均で約６％、最も厳しい関西電力管内も３％を確保できる見通しのためだ。

Last summer, the government forced companies and households to bear the burden by setting energy-saving targets of 5 percent to 15 percent in areas served by seven utilities. We applaud the fact that the government was able to avoid imposing such targets this summer by boosting supply capacity and energy saving efforts. We hope we will manage to get through this summer with reasonable energy conservation efforts.
　昨夏は７電力管内で５～１５％の節電目標を定め、企業や家庭に負担を強いた。電力供給の上積みや節電効果で、数値目標を回避できたことは評価できる。無理のない節電で夏を乗り切りたい。

Walking on a tightrope

However, the current state of the national power supply is like walking on a tightrope, as the nation currently has only two reactors at KEPCO's Oi nuclear power plant in Fukui Prefecture in operation. The government and utilities must make every effort to secure a stable power supply to avert massive blackouts and other problems.
　とはいえ、稼働する原子力発電所は関電の大飯原発２基だけで、電力供給は綱渡りである。政府と電力各社は、大規模な停電などを起こさないよう、安定供給に万全を期さなければならない。

It is too optimistic to think the national power supply could not be shaken at a time when most reactors are not operating.
　大半の原発が止まっていても電力供給に問題はない、などと考えるのは楽観的すぎる。

Currently, the nation has barely made up for power shortages caused by the shutdown of nuclear reactors, by reactivating thermal power plants. The operation of some of the plants had been suspended for a long time due to the aging of the facilities.
　老朽化で運転を長期休止していた火力発電所も動員し、原発停止で不足した電力をかろうじて補っているのが実情だからだ。

To maintain necessary power generation, utilities have pushed themselves hard and taken actions such as reducing inspections at their thermal power plants. Such actions further raise the risk of malfunction and danger at the plants.
　必要な発電量を維持しようと、火力発電所の検査を減らすなどの無理を重ね、故障やトラブルのリスクは一段と高まっている。

If operations are forced to stop at multiple plants due to emergencies, the nation could experience a power crisis.
　発電所の緊急停止が相次ぐ事態ともなれば、電力需給は一気に逼迫(ひっぱく)する恐れがある。

Concerns are especially strong in areas served by KEPCO. If the operation of the Oi reactors, the anchor of KEPCO's power supply, is suspended, the utilities' service areas would face a power shortage of about 12 percent, a significant worsening compared with the currently estimated 3 percent surplus. Even if electricity is transferred from other utilities, KEPCO could secure a mere 0.6 percent supply surplus. KEPCO is dangerously close to a potential massive blackout.
　特に懸念されるのが関電管内である。頼みの綱の大飯原発が停止すると、「余力３％」から一転して約１２％の電力不足に陥る。他電力から電気の融通を受けても、余力０・６％しか確保できない。大停電の危機と紙一重といえる。

Negative impact on economy

Power shortages weigh heavily on the Japanese economy.
　電力不足が日本経済に与えている打撃も極めて大きい。

Additional fuel costs for thermal power generation to make up for power shortfalls due to the suspension of nuclear reactors are estimated to rise to 3.8 trillion yen in fiscal 2013 from 3.1 trillion yen in fiscal 2012. The increases are due to soaring import prices of liquefied natural gas and other energy sources caused mainly by the weaker yen.
　原発停止を補うために必要な火力発電の追加燃料費は、１２年度の３・１兆円から１３年度は３・８兆円に増えるという。液化天然ガス（ＬＮＧ）などの輸入価格が、円安で高騰したのが主因だ。

If the national reliance on thermal power generation is prolonged, massive amounts of national wealth will continue to flow out to resource-rich countries, making it difficult to stave off expansion of domestic trade deficits. In such a situation, the nation would be unable to avert additional utility rate hikes, and companies would see their production costs rise. As a result, the firms would relocate their production overseas, accelerating the hollowing-out of industry.
　火力発電への依存が長引けば、資源国へ巨額の国富流出が続き、貿易赤字の拡大に歯止めがかからなくなる。電力料金の追加値上げも避けられず、企業の生産コストは上昇する。工場が海外移転する産業空洞化も加速しよう。

Power shortages could also hamper Abenomics, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's economic measures. It is therefore vital to steadily restart reactors after their safety is confirmed and secure the electricity needed for the nation's economic growth.
　電力不足は、安倍首相の経済政策「アベノミクス」の障害ともなる。安全を確認した原発を着実に再稼働し、経済成長に必要な電力を確保することが大切である。

With new regulatory standards to be devised in July, the Nuclear Regulation Authority should examine the safety of reactors without delay.
　原子力規制委員会は、７月に策定する新たな規制基準で遅滞なく原発の安全性を審査すべきだ。

We also urge the government to make further efforts to explain to the public the need to restart reactors, to obtain the understanding of local governments hosting nuclear facilities.
　政府も、再稼働へ立地自治体の理解を得られるよう、説明に全力を挙げてもらいたい。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, April 27, 2013)
（2013年4月27日01時15分  読売新聞）