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2013年5月18日 (土)

GDP高成長 「異次元の回復」とは気が早い

The Yomiuri Shimbun May 18, 2013
Jan.-March GDP growth does not equate to full economic recovery
GDP高成長 「異次元の回復」とは気が早い(5月17日付・読売社説)

Thanks to the yen’s depreciation and rising stock prices due to a favorable market response to Abenomics, signs of the nation’s economic turnaround are becoming evident.
 安倍内閣の進める経済政策「アベノミクス」を好感した円安や株価上昇の追い風を受け、景気の持ち直しが一段と鮮明になってきた。

To ensure a genuine, sustained recovery, both the government and the Bank of Japan must continue carefully steering policy measures.
 本格的な景気回復へ、政府と日銀は政策のかじ取りに万全を期さなければならない。

Gross domestic product in the January-March period rose 0.9 percent in real terms from the previous quarter, resulting in the second straight quarter of expansion. This figure translates into a real 3.5 percent GDP gain on an annualized basis, a markedly high growth rate.
 今年1~3月期の実質国内総生産(GDP)は、前期比0・9%増と、2四半期連続でプラス成長となった。年率換算で3・5%の高い成長率である。

In particular, consumer spending was firm during the three-month period, buoyed by such factors as “financial asset effects,” which link surges in stock prices to stimulation of consumer purchases. Exports also strengthened due to the weakening of the yen.
 株高が購買意欲を刺激する「資産効果」などで、個人消費が堅調だった。円安を背景に輸出も回復した。

Not out of the woods yet

It is truly encouraging that both domestic and foreign demand have rebounded.
内需と外需がそろって上向いたのは心強い。

The Nikkei average has also retaken the 15,000 level, indicating continued upbeat market sentiment.
 東京市場の平均株価が1万5000円の大台を回復し、足もとでも明るい動きが広がっている。

Referring to the 3.5 percent growth rate, Akira Amari, state minister for economic and fiscal policy, praised the Abe administration’s economic policy by saying, “Steps toward an ‘extraordinary’ level of economic recovery have begun thanks to the implementation of ‘extraordinary’ policies.”
 甘利経済財政相は3・5%成長について、「異次元の政策投入による、異次元の景気回復への歩みが始まった」と、アベノミクスの効果を強調した。

Still, it seems premature to suggest the economy has fully bounced back.
 だが、日本経済が上昇気流に乗ったと考えるのは早計に過ぎる。

This is because corporate capital spending, a key to robust growth, remains weak. Improvements in the job market are also lagging.
力強い成長のカギとなる企業の設備投資はまだ低調で、雇用の回復も遅れているからだ。

The government must steadily implement the fiscal 2013 budget to prop up the economy with the “two arrows” of budgetary appropriations and the central bank’s quantitative and qualitative monetary easing.
 今年度予算を着実に執行するとともに、日銀の量的・質的金融緩和をあわせた「2本の矢」で、景気をしっかり支えたい。

Whether the recent positive effects will lead to private sector-driven growth hinges on the “third arrow” of the Abe administration’s three-pronged approach to economic revival.
 民間主導の成長にバトンタッチできるかどうかは、「3本目の矢」の成長戦略にかかっている。

The Abe Cabinet has been discussing ways to promote industries with high growth potential through such avenues as the Industrial Competitiveness Council, chaired by the prime minister.
 安倍内閣は産業振興や成長市場の育成策について、産業競争力会議などで論議している。

Several administrations prior to Abe’s also devised growth strategies, but none succeeded in yielding tangible results.
 歴代内閣も成長戦略を打ち出しながら、成果は乏しかった。

We strongly hope this administration’s strategies prove effective in fostering technological innovation and bolstering Japan’s international competitiveness by taking the private sector’s proposals into account.
今度こそ民間の提言を生かし、技術革新や競争力強化に有効な戦略を練り上げてほしい。

Such tasks as lowering corporate income tax, which is considerably higher than in other advanced economies, and trimming employment regulations must also be urgently addressed.
 他の主要国に比べて高い法人税率の引き下げや、過剰な雇用規制の緩和も急務である。

The private sector needs to step up and play a leading role in achieving economic recovery. Companies must break away from defensive management practices that are overly dependent on corporate restructuring and take up the challenge of driving profitability.
 むろん、主役は民間企業だ。リストラ頼みの「守りの経営」から脱却し、収益力の強化を図ることが求められる。

Adverse effects of weaker yen

A further depreciation of the yen, however, is cause for concern. Having fallen to 100 yen to the dollar, the nation’s currency may decline further, which could worsen adverse side effects such as rises in prices of imported raw materials.
 心配なのは、1ドル=100円を突破した円安が勢いづき、原材料の輸入価格上昇といった副作用が深刻化しかねないことである。

If the weaker yen continues to drive up fuel costs for thermal power generation, pressing utilities to raise electricity rates again, households and companies will be severely affected.
 円安で火力発電の燃料費が増大し、電気料金が追加値上げを迫られると、家計や企業への打撃は大きい。

Furthermore, to resuscitate the domestic economy, nuclear power plants should be gradually restarted as long as their safety is confirmed.
経済再生の観点からも、安全性を確認できた原子力発電所を着実に再稼働すべきだ。

Running counter to the Bank of Japan’s monetary easing measures, long-term interest rates are on the rise, which has triggered anxiety over the potential for private sector recovery.
 日銀の金融緩和に逆行して長期金利が上昇し、景気への悪影響も懸念され始めた。

Both the government and the central bank must keep a close watch on trends in the financial market.
政府と日銀は市場動向を注視する必要がある。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, May 17, 2013)
(2013年5月17日01時16分  読売新聞)

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