火山災害対策 大噴火へ十分な備えが必要だ

The Yomiuri Shimbun May 21, 2013
Central, local govts must prepare sufficiently for large volcanic eruptions
火山災害対策　大噴火へ十分な備えが必要だ（5月20日付・読売社説）

An expert panel of the Cabinet Office has compiled a proposal calling on the government and other entities to improve measures to deal with volcanic eruptions, and warning that their sense of crisis regarding such disasters has been weakening.
　火山噴火への危機感が薄れていないか。
　内閣府の有識者会議がそう警告し、政府などに火山対策の整備を促す提言をまとめた。

Since the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011, measures to deal with such disasters as earthquakes and tsunami have drawn much attention. In light of such developments, the panel’s proposal emphasizes that sufficient precautions are also needed against volcanic eruptions.
　東日本大震災の後、地震や津波対策が注目されているが、有識者会議の提言は、火山にも十分な警戒が必要だと強調している。

This is a very important point to make.
　もっともな指摘である。

There are 110 active volcanoes in Japan, of which 47 may erupt in the next 100 years or so. The Japan Meteorological Agency has installed seismometers and other instruments on these volcanoes to monitor them and make observations.
　日本には１１０の火山がある。うち４７火山は、今後１００年程度の間に噴火する可能性があり、気象庁が地震計などを設置して、監視・観測を続けている。

In 2008, the government called on local governments located near the 47 volcanoes to establish, together with such entities as local meteorological observatories, volcanic disaster prevention councils to discuss evacuation plans. However, such councils have only been established for 26 volcanoes so far.
　政府は２００８年、４７火山の周辺自治体に、避難計画を検討する「火山防災協議会」を地方気象台などと設けるよう求めた。ところが、まだ２６火山にしかない。

Few plans prepared

Meanwhile, the only local governments that have evacuation plans for their residents are those near Sakurajima, a volcano and a former island in Kagoshima Prefecture, and those around Mt. Kirishima, a volcano group stretching over Kagoshima and Miyazaki prefectures. It is urgent that local governments accelerate their efforts on this matter.
　住民の避難計画があるのは、桜島（鹿児島県）と霧島山（宮崎、鹿児島県）の周辺自治体だけだ。取り組みの加速が急務である。

Japan is a chain of volcanic islands. Mt. Aso erupted 90,000 years ago, leaving the entire island of Kyushu covered with lava.
　火山大国の日本では、９万年前に阿蘇山が噴火し、九州全域が溶岩に覆われた例もある。

Such “massive eruptions” occur only once in 20,000 to 50,000 years. But in the past 1,000 years there have been more than 15 “large-scale eruptions,” whose eruptive volume of ash and other materials is less than one-hundredth of that in a massive eruption.
　こうした「巨大噴火」は２万～５万年に１回程度だが、火山灰などの噴出量が、その１００分の１以下の「大規模噴火」は、過去１０００年で１５回以上あった。

Even in the case of a large-scale eruption, however, the eruptive volume is estimated to top 100 million cubic meters, enough to fill Tokyo Dome 80 times. As a huge amount of volcanic ash would spread over a vast area, it would inevitably cause serious damage.
　大規模噴火でも、噴出量は１億立方メートル（東京ドーム８０杯分）を超える。火山灰が広く飛散し、甚大な被害は避けられまい。

Should a large-scale eruption occur on Mt. Fuji, the ashfall is predicted to be massive enough to paralyze the Tokyo metropolitan area.
富士山で大規模噴火が起きれば、首都圏の都市機能がマヒするほどの降灰が予測されている。

Since the 1914 eruption of Sakurajima, however, there have been no eruptions affecting a large area.
　ただ、桜島の大正噴火（１９１４年）以来、広域に影響が及んだ噴火は起きていない。

This relatively calm period is probably the main reason for the lack of progress in implementing relevant measures against volcanic eruptions. The government should boost its support to local governments in drawing up their evacuation plans.
比較的平穏な時期が続いたことが、対策が進まない主な要因だろう。政府は、自治体の避難計画策定の支援を強化すべきだ。

The central government is not sufficiently prepared, either. The division of the roles to be played by the National Police Agency, the Internal Affairs and Communications Ministry’s Fire and Disaster Management Agency and the Defense Ministry are unclear.
　政府自体の備えも不十分だ。警察庁や総務省消防庁、防衛省の役割分担が明確ではない。

The present system of evacuation instructions to be issued for residents may also confuse people. Such instructions are to be issued by the heads of local cities, towns and villages, in accordance with the Basic Law on Natural Disasters, unless the instructions are to be issued for residents in more than one municipality at once. In that case, they are to be issued directly by the central government.
　住民への避難指示も、現状では混乱しかねない。災害対策基本法に基づき市町村長が出すことになっているが、対象が複数の市町村にまたがる場合には、国が直接、指示する必要がある。

Research must be kept up

It is quite reasonable that the panel has called for study on developing legal systems concerning evacuation instructions.
　有識者会議が提言で、避難指示に関する法整備の検討を求めたのは当然と言えよう。

The panel also expressed concern in its proposal about the lag in volcanic studies, saying that there is a shortage of next-generation experts.
　提言は、火山研究の低迷にも懸念を示した。次世代の専門家が不足しているという。

Unless relevant research and studies are maintained at a certain level, the foundation of the nation’s volcanic disaster prevention measures may become shaky.
調査研究を一定水準に維持していかないと、火山の防災対策の足元は揺らぐ。

Experts have pointed out that there have been signs of rising volcanic activity since the 2011 earthquake. The nation should not repeat the mistake of failing to promptly deal with natural disasters that cause unexpected damage.
　東日本大震災以降、火山活動の活発化も指摘されている。想定外の災害に対処が遅れる失敗を繰り返してはならない。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, May 20, 2013)
（2013年5月20日01時20分  読売新聞）