骨太方針 「再生の１０年」への険しい道

The Yomiuri Shimbun June 16, 2013
Nation faces rough road ahead to achieve 'decade of revival'
骨太方針　「再生の１０年」への険しい道（6月15日付・読売社説）

　◆成長と財政再建の両立目指せ

To realize a “strong Japan,” it is indispensable to revive the economy with a growth strategy and fiscal rehabilitation as the driving forces.
　「強い日本」の実現には、成長戦略と財政再建を両輪に経済を再生することが欠かせない。

This is a steep path for Japan, which has the worst fiscal deficit of any industrialized nation, but the most important thing for the nation is to exercise its ability to get things done. In that sense, Abenomics--a set of economic policies of the administration of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe--will be put to the test.
　先進国最悪の財政赤字を抱える日本にとって険しい道だが、肝心なのは実行力である。安倍政権の経済政策「アベノミクス」の真価が問われる。

The government on Friday approved the basic policies for economic and fiscal management and reform at a Cabinet meeting. The policies were compiled by the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy, which was revived by Abe in January. It is the first time since the cabinet of Taro Aso four years ago that such basic policies have been compiled.
　政府は１４日、「経済財政運営と改革の基本方針」（骨太方針）を閣議決定した。安倍首相が１月に復活させた経済財政諮問会議がまとめた。骨太方針の作成は、麻生内閣以来、４年ぶりだ。

Abe emphasized his administration would “reverse two decades of stagnation for the Japanese economy to a new decade of revival.”
　首相は、「日本経済を停滞の２０年から再生の１０年へと転換する」と強調している。

Surplus target to stay
　堅持した黒字化の目標

The most important point of the basic policies is that they clearly state the government will maintain its fiscal rehabilitation target of “turning the primary fiscal balance of national and local governments into a surplus by fiscal 2020.”
　最大のポイントは、「国と地方の基礎的財政収支を２０２０年度までに黒字化する」という政府の財政再建目標の堅持を明記したことだ。

Currently, the fiscal deficit amounts to about 34 trillion yen. This is quite a high hurdle as this red ink must be eliminated in seven years.
現在、約３４兆円に上る赤字を７年で解消するのは、極めて高いハードルである。

Furthermore, the basic policies set a new target of realizing “a steady decline in outstanding long-term debts” even after fiscal 2020.
　さらに、２１年度以降についても長期債務残高の「安定的な引き下げを目指す」という新たな目標を掲げた。

The Bank of Japan has been purchasing a huge amount of government bonds under its aggressive monetary-easing policy. If this action is taken by markets as merely a way to finance the fiscal deficit and confidence toward the government fiscal policy is shaken, prices of the government bonds may sharply decline, causing long-term interest rates to further rise.
　日本銀行は、大胆な金融緩和策で巨額の国債を買い入れている。市場に財政赤字の穴埋めと受け止められて、財政への信認が揺らげば、国債価格が急落して長期金利が一段と上昇しかねない。

It is quite appropriate that the basic policies emphasize the government’s determination to realize “both sustainable economic growth and fiscal consolidation,” clarifying its stance of emphasizing fiscal discipline.
　骨太方針が「持続的成長と財政健全化の双方の実現に取り組む」と強調し、財政規律を重視する姿勢を明確にしたのは妥当だ。

Lacking concrete content

However, the policies show no concrete path for fiscal consolidation. In that sense, the policies lack depth. This is probably because the administration puts a higher priority on consideration for local governments and industry organizations, with the July House of Councillors election approaching.
　ただ、財政再建の具体的な道筋を描いておらず、踏み込みの甘さは否めない。７月の参院選を控えて、地方や業界団体などへの配慮を優先したためだろう。

The basic policies are especially unclear about cuts in government expenditures, although they do say the government will aim to review all spending for social security--the government’s biggest item of spending--without exception to promote efficiency. However, the policies only list subjects for review such as expenses for medical costs for the elderly not covered by health-care insurance and promotion of the use of generic drugs.
　特に歳出削減は歯切れが悪い。最大の歳出項目である社会保障分野について「聖域なき見直しで歳出の効率化を進める」としたが、高齢者医療費の自己負担の見直しや後発医薬品の使用促進といった課題の列挙にとどまった。

It is rather problematic that the policies do not refer to how much the spending should be cut.
　削減規模などに言及しなかったのは物足りない。

On the other hand, the policies say the government will proactively handle so-called national land strengthening measures such as improvement of aging infrastructure, including roads and bridges, as well as disaster management efforts.
　一方で、道路や橋などインフラ（社会資本）の老朽化対策や、防災などの「国土強靱(きょうじん)化」には積極的に取り組む考えを示した。

We understand the importance of these measures, but public works projects involve a huge amount of expense. It remains ambiguous in the basic policies how fiscal discipline will be maintained in this connection.
　目的は理解できるが、公共事業には巨額の支出が伴う。骨太方針では、財政規律をどう維持するかといった点は曖昧なままだ。

Concerning the planned increase in the consumption tax rate, the policies only say judgment on the raise will be made by comprehensively considering the economic situation.
　消費税率の引き上げも、「経済状況を総合的に勘案して、判断を行う」としただけだった。

Sort out policy priorities
　政策の優先度見極めよ

The focal point for the moment is whether the government will be able to articulate a clear plan for putting state finances on a sound footing when it compiles a midterm fiscal program this summer.
　当面の焦点は、政府が今夏に策定する中期財政計画で、財政健全化を着実に進める姿勢を明確に打ち出せるかどうかだ。

For fiscal rehabilitation to be successful, it is unavoidable to curb spending and promote regulatory reform although these will impose pain on the people.
　財政再建を成功させるには、国民に痛みを強いる歳出抑制や規制改革を避けてはなるまい。

Numerical targets for spending cuts and other factors that can be appreciated by the market will have to be incorporated in the fiscal program.
　財政計画には、市場に評価される歳出削減の数値目標なども盛り込む必要があるだろう。

In summer, the government will decide the ceiling on budgetary requests by ministries and agencies for the fiscal 2014 budget. Efforts must be made to devise ways of allocating limited budgets in order of priority to implement policies effectively.
　夏には、１４年度予算編成の概算要求基準（シーリング）も決定する。限られた予算にしっかり優先順位を付け、効率的に政策を実施する工夫が求められる。

For fiscal reconstruction to succeed, it is also necessary for business to recover steadily.
　財政再建のためにも、景気を着実に回復させる必要がある。

The gross domestic product for the January-March quarter grew at a high 4.1 percent annual rate in real terms. In its monthly economic report released this month, the government revised upward its business assessment, saying, the economy “is picking up steadily.”
　１～３月期の国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）の実質成長率は年率４・１％と高い伸びとなった。政府は６月の月例経済報告で、景気の基調判断を「着実に持ち直している」へ上方修正した。

The current economic climate has been brightening, but optimism is not warranted.
　足元の景気は明るさを増してきたが、油断は禁物である。

At the behest of Prime Minister Abe, it was decided to start annual discussions about tax system reforms, such as tax breaks for plant and equipment investment, earlier than in usual years. This is an appropriate judgment.
　首相の指示で、企業の設備投資減税など税制改正の議論を例年より前倒しで始めることにしたのは適切な判断だろう。

Abe expressed his willingness to carry out the government’s growth strategy, saying it “will submit necessary bills in an extraordinary Diet session in autumn, which will be a ‘growth strategy parliament.’”
　首相は「秋の臨時国会を成長戦略国会と位置づけ、必要な法案を提出する」と意欲を見せた。

The growth strategy is designed to realize economic recovery with the initiative of the private sector and to expand business further. An increased growth rate would bring about a rise in tax revenue, thereby putting fiscal management on a sound footing. This would alleviate anxiety about the future, and personal consumption and corporate capital investment would soar. Realizing such a virtuous circle is very desirable.
　成長戦略で民間主導の回復を図り、景気拡大をさらに確実なものにする。成長率を高めることで税収を増やし、財政が健全化する。将来不安が和らぎ、個人消費や投資の意欲も増大する――。そうした好循環を実現したい。

Restart N-reactors
　原発再稼働は不可欠だ

Realization of stable growth is premised on a stable supply of cheap electricity.
　安定成長の実現は、安価な電力の安定供給が前提となる。

Operation has been suspended in almost all of the nation’s nuclear power stations. This has led to increased fuel costs at thermal power plants and a series of hikes in utility bills.
　ほとんどの原子力発電所が運転を停止しているため、火力発電の燃料費がかさみ、電気料金の値上げも相次いでいる。

It is natural that the basic policies clearly state, “The restarting of nuclear reactors will be promoted by respecting the judgment of the Nuclear Regulation Authority.”
骨太方針が原発について「原子力規制委員会の判断を尊重し、再稼働を進める」と明記したのは当然である。

The nuclear watchdog’s new regulation standards will be in place in July. We urge the authority to screen utilities’ applications to restart their reactors without delay.
　原子力規制委の新たな規制基準は７月に施行される。電力会社による再稼働申請について、遅滞なく審査することが求められる。

The government must exercise leadership in winning over local governments, which have administrative authority over sites where nuclear power plants are located, so reactors can be restarted smoothly after their safety is confirmed by the authority.
　規制委が安全を確認した原発の再稼働が円滑に進むよう、政府は率先して立地自治体の説得などにあたるべきだ。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, June 15, 2013)
（2013年6月15日01時20分  読売新聞）