« オスプレイ導入 自衛隊の機動力向上を進めよ | トップページ | ราชสีห์กับหนู 2 ライオンとねずみ2(イソップ物語より) »

2013年9月23日 (月)

FRB金融緩和 「出口戦略」への難しい舵取り

The Yomiuri Shimbun September 23, 2013
U.S. Federal Reserve Board faces long, difficult road to QE3 exit
FRB金融緩和 「出口戦略」への難しい舵取り(9月22日付・読売社説)

The U.S. Federal Reserve Board has decided not to scale down its monetary “QE3” quantitative easing policy implemented to deal with the financial crisis.

It was a surprise decision for the market as many observers expected the Fed to take the first step of its exit strategy for ending QE3.

However, the path to the exit is not clear. The markets speculate the Fed would scale down its economic stimulus program in December. The central bank will face some difficult maneuvering from here on.

The Fed held a two-day policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and decided to maintain the central bank’s $85 billion (¥8.4 trillion) monthly purchases of the U.S. government bonds, an unusual way to supply funds to the market.

The Fed said it would like to await conclusive evidence on improvement of the economy and employment before deciding to reduce its stimulus.

It has apparently chosen the safer option of ensuring lasting economic recovery rather than rushing for the exit. The U.S. economy has been showing signs of recovery since the annualized growth rate of its gross domestic product increased by 2.5 percent in April-June quarter compared to the previous quarter.

But the employment situation remains a concern. Though the jobless rate dropped to 7.3 percent in August, the number of workers in the nonagricultural sector is still increasing very slowly.

Meanwhile, the central bank is wary of negative effects from the recent hike of long-term borrowing rates. Stymied negotiations between the ruling and opposition parties over the U.S. debt ceiling, which will be exceeded in mid-October, might cast a shadow over economic prospects.

Dialogue with market

New York stock prices soared right after the Fed’s decision to maintain the pace of its QE3 as many investors took heart from the development.

In light of expectations that the Fed would implement its exit strategy, speculative funds were flowing out of emerging economies but have been returning since the Fed’s decision, and fears of an economic slowdown have been alleviated.

If the Fed had acted hastily, it would have had a great impact on the global economy and market, including Japan. The Fed’s wise decision to avoid confusion is praiseworthy.

Nevertheless, it cannot continue the large-scale quantitative easing for good because of such negative effects as excessive funds circulating around the globe, causing asset-inflated bubbles.

The central bank’s stated policy was to start scaling back QE3 by year-end and to terminate it around the middle of next year. Even if it follows this plan, the exit route remains long. The Fed needs to hold dialogues with the market to avoid causing confusion.

Now, attention is focused on who will succeed the current Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, whose term expires at the end of January. U.S. President Barack Obama has given up replacing Bernanke with former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, who had been considered the front-runner for the job.

The field has been narrowed to only a few candidates, including Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen, now considered the favorite. We hope Obama will decide as soon as possible on a successor to Bernanke and try to stabilize U.S. financial policy.

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Sept. 22, 2013)
(2013年9月22日01時13分  読売新聞)


« オスプレイ導入 自衛隊の機動力向上を進めよ | トップページ | ราชสีห์กับหนู 2 ライオンとねずみ2(イソップ物語より) »





« オスプレイ導入 自衛隊の機動力向上を進めよ | トップページ | ราชสีห์กับหนู 2 ライオンとねずみ2(イソップ物語より) »