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2013年9月12日 (木)

GDP改定値 肝心なのは成長の持続力だ

The Yomiuri Shimbun September 12, 2013
Amid positive economic growth, sustained recovery still vital
GDP改定値 肝心なのは成長の持続力だ(9月11日付・読売社説)

The relatively high growth rate announced recently is indeed encouraging. However, concerns remain over the sustainability of the economic recovery. Overcoming deflation is still a work in progress.
 高めの成長率は心強いが、景気回復の持続力には不安もある。デフレ脱却は道半ばだ。

The nation’s real gross domestic product growth for the April-June quarter was revised upward to an annualized 3.8 percent increase from last year, up from the preliminary figure of 2.6 percent.
 今年4~6月期の実質国内総生産(GDP)改定値は、年率換算の成長率が3・8%となり、速報値の2・6%から上方修正された。

The revision came because capital investment growth, which was negative at the time of the preliminary report, turned positive for the first time in six quarters. A greater rate of increase in public investment also contributed.
 速報段階でマイナスだった設備投資が6四半期ぶりのプラスに転換したほか、公共投資も増加幅が拡大したためである。

The GDP growth rate remained high, at about 4 percent, following 4.1 percent in the January-March quarter. It appears that Abenomics, the economic policy of the administration of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, including the Bank of Japan’s quantitative and qualitative monetary-easing steps and the government’s emergency economic measures, has borne fruit.
 成長率は1~3月期の4・1%に続き、4%前後の高水準を維持した。日銀の「量的・質的金融緩和」や政府の緊急経済対策など、安倍政権の経済政策「アベノミクス」が奏功したのだろう。

Govt must stay vigilant

The GDP in the April-June quarter will be a key factor in Abe’s decision over whether to raise the consumption tax rate from 5 percent to 8 percent in spring.
 4~6月期のGDPは、消費税率を来春に5%から8%に引き上げるかどうか、安倍首相が判断する大きな材料となる。

Akira Amari, state minister for economic and fiscal policy, said “another positive factor has been added” for the consumption tax hike. However, the government must not let its guard down.
 甘利経済財政相は消費増税に向けて「好材料が一つ追加された」と述べたが、油断は禁物だ。

Capital investment rose, but only modestly. The current high economic growth is sustained by the government’s economic measures and other factors. But if they lose their effectiveness, the nation’s economy could lurch to a halt.
 設備投資は増加したとはいえ、小幅にとどまっている。足元の高成長は経済対策などで底上げされており、政策効果が出尽くせば急ブレーキがかかりかねない。

It is important to realize dynamic, private-sector led growth.
 重要なのは民間主導の力強い成長を実現することだ。

Abe will reportedly decide on Oct. 1 whether to raise the consumption tax rate. It remains unclear whether the nation’s economy has regained enough strength to endure the tax increase. We believe the government should place priority on conquering deflation and postpone the consumption tax hike in spring.
 首相は10月1日にも消費増税の判断を示すという。日本経済が増税に耐える体力を回復したかどうかは、まだ不透明だ。デフレ脱却を最優先し、来春の消費増税は見送るべきである。

When the consumption tax rate was raised from 3 percent to 5 percent in 1997, the subsequent economic slowdown resulted in a significant drop in corporate and other tax revenues. Fiscal reconstruction is essential, but vigilance must be kept over a risk that the tax increase may have the opposite effect on the economy.
 1997年に消費税率を3%から5%に上げた際は、景気失速で法人税などの税収が大きく落ち込んだ。財政再建は大切だが、増税が逆効果となるリスクにも警戒しなければならない。

It is also important to keep an eye on the international situation. Clouds have started to gather over growth in emerging economies. Also, oil prices have risen due to heightened tensions over the Syria situation.
 国際情勢への目配りも不可欠である。新興国の成長に陰りが出てきた。シリア情勢の緊迫化で原油相場は上昇している。

The reactivation of idled nuclear reactors has been delayed in Japan, and currently about 90 percent of electricity relies on thermal power generation. It is feared that electricity rates could further rise if prices of imported fuel surge.
 日本では原子力発電所の再稼働が遅れ、電力の約9割を火力発電に頼っている。輸入燃料が高騰すれば、電気料金が一段と上がることが懸念される。

Because of an increase in prices of imported raw materials, a growing number of food companies and other firms have raised the prices of their products. Consumer spending, which has been robust recently, is starting to run out of steam.
 原材料の輸入価格高で、食品などにも値上げの動きが広がっている。堅調だった個人消費はここにきて息切れ気味といえる。

The “unfavorable price hikes,” mainly caused by rising costs, and a consumption tax hike, if combined, would deal a heavy blow to household finances. It is important to create a “virtuous cycle” in which household income increases along with price hikes.
 コスト高が主因の「悪い物価上昇」に消費増税が重なれば、家計への打撃は大きい。物価上昇にあわせて家計の収入も増える「好循環」を生み出すことが大事だ。

Although the average wage of workers has turned around and increased, this is primarily due to an increase in bonuses and overtime pay. In fact, the basic salary has fallen for 14 months in a row. Efforts must be made quickly to drastically improve workers’ wages.
 労働者の平均賃金は上昇に転じたものの、ボーナスや残業代の増加が中心で、基本給は14か月連続で減少している。本格的な賃金改善を急がねばならない。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Sept. 11, 2013)
(2013年9月11日01時34分  読売新聞)

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