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2013年9月 8日 (日)

リーマン5年 新たなリスクに問われる結束

The Yomiuri Shimbun September 8, 2013
G-20 unity needed to tackle new economic challenges
リーマン5年 新たなリスクに問われる結束(9月7日付・読売社説)

The worst is in the past for the world economy, but the recovery lacks vigor. Industrialized and newly emerging economies alike must strengthen cooperation to make economic growth compatible with fiscal reconstruction.

The declaration adopted after the G-20 Leaders’ Summit in Russia stated, “Strengthening growth and creating jobs is our top priority and we are fully committed to taking decisive actions to return to a job-rich, strong, sustainable and balanced growth path.”

It has been almost exactly five years since the so-called Lehman Shock, triggered by the bankruptcy of major U.S. securities house Lehman Brothers, brought the world to the brink of depression.

At the G-20 summit held in November 2008 in the immediate aftermath of the Lehman Shock, Japan, the United States and Europe joined hands with China and other emerging economies and agreed to take all possible measures, such as large-scale stimulus programs and ultraloose monetary policy, to overcome the unprecedented shock.

Now, however, the G-20 is suffering the aftereffects of those exceptional measures. It should be assumed that difficulties will continue.

Attention will be focused for the moment on the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, which is expected to soon launch an “exit strategy” of scaling back quantitative monetary easing.

Investment funds have begun to flow back from emerging economies, including Brazil and India, into the U.S. market in anticipation of hikes in U.S. interest rates.

Inflationary trends have appeared in emerging economies, as their currencies have been rapidly weakening, which causes import prices to rise. Discontent has mounted due to the continued business slowdown. It is feared that deterioration of the business climate in emerging economies will adversely affect industrialized countries.

Ripple effects feared

The latest G-20 declaration stated that member nations would take note of negative knock-on effects. Behind this could be their stronger caution toward risks and consideration to emerging economies.

To prevent the world market from falling into chaos, countries must cooperate with each other and pay attention to excessive fund movements.

The European financial crisis, which became more serious following the Lehman Shock, has begun to show signs of coming to a close. But a full-scale recovery is far from expected yet, and close watch still must be kept.

Ballooning of fiscal deficits in the G-20 nations is another challenge to tackle. It is natural that the Leaders’ Declaration and the Action Plan emphasized the need to achieve economic growth and fiscal soundness in a balanced manner.

Attention was focused on Japan, which has the biggest fiscal deficit.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stressed his determination to end deflation and revitalize the Japanese economy by implementing his Abenomics economic policies and explained about the country’s medium-term fiscal program.

Other G-20 nations did not make any special requests of Japan, but the country is being tested as to whether it can put words into action.

Abe will decide in early October whether to raise the consumption tax next spring as scheduled. Japan’s economic revival is largely expected to stimulate the global economy. He is urged to make a judgment while also taking into account the recently intensified Syrian situation.

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Sept. 7, 2013)
(2013年9月7日02時02分  読売新聞)


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