ＦＲＢ新議長 出口戦略引き継ぐ重い責任

The Yomiuri Shimbun October 14, 2013
Next Fed chief must address difficult task of quantitative-easing exit policy
ＦＲＢ新議長　出口戦略引き継ぐ重い責任（10月13日付・読売社説）

Although widespread belief that the right person has been chosen is sending a sense of relief through the markets, a mountain of difficulties awaits the next chief of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board.
　順当な人選で市場に安(あん)堵(ど)感が広がっているが、前途は多難だ。

The abilities of the Fed’s new leader are certain to be put to the test regarding when and how to effect an “exit strategy”—in other words, scaling back the United States’ extraordinary quantitative monetary easing policy.
異例の金融緩和策を縮小する「出口戦略」に向け、新議長の手腕が問われよう。

President Barack Obama has nominated Janet Yellen, vice chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, to succeed Ben Bernanke as chairman of the U.S. central bank. Bernanke’s second term ends on Jan. 31.
　オバマ米大統領は、来年１月末に任期が切れる米連邦準備制度理事会（ＦＲＢ）のバーナンキ議長の後任として、イエレン副議長を指名した。

Once she is confirmed by the Senate, Yellen will take the top Fed post in February to become the first woman to head the world’s most influential central bank in its 100-year history.
　議会上院の承認を得た後、２月に就任する。ＦＲＢ１００年の歴史で初めての女性議長だ。

In a news conference Wednesday after his nomination of Yellen, Obama said she is “exceptionally qualified” to tackle unemployment, which he called the most urgent task facing the U.S. economy.
　大統領は記者会見で、「雇用が最重要課題であることを踏まえると適任だ」と述べた。

An economist specializing in unemployment issues, Yellen has so far thrown her support behind Bernanke, who has led the Fed’s bold money easing policy since the financial crisis triggered by the 2008 Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. She is regarded by the market as likely to continue steering Fed policy in the same direction as Bernanke, and there will probably be no major policy changes.
　イエレン氏は失業問題を専門とする経済学者で、リーマン・ショック後の大胆な金融緩和策を主導したバーナンキ氏を支えてきた。バーナンキ路線を継承し、大きな政策変更はないとみられる。

Obama’s nomination of Yellen seems to have come from a judgment that promotion of the vice chair to the top post would best ensure the stability of U.S. financial policy, avoiding the market turmoil that could result from the replacement of the central bank head.
　大統領は、議長交代に伴う市場の混乱を回避し、金融政策の安定を図るうえで、副議長の昇格が最善と判断したのだろう。

Because of the protracted standoff between the ruling and opposition parties in Congress, a federal budget for the new fiscal year has yet to be enacted, causing a partial shutdown of U.S. government services. If the legislature fails to reach an accord on raising the government debt limit, the possibility of the U.S. government plunging into a fiscal default crisis could become reality.
　議会の与野党対立で新年度予算が成立せず、政府機能の一部停止に追い込まれている。連邦債務上限が引き上げられないと、債務不履行（デフォルト）に陥る財政危機も現実味を帯びる。

In nominating Yellen, Obama may have aimed to swiftly conclude the nomination, thereby eliminating any uncertainty felt by the markets.
　新議長を速やかに指名することで、市場の不透明感を払拭する狙いもあったと言えよう。

A dove on money easing

At the news conference, Yellen referred to the serious problem of U.S. unemployment and pledged to do her utmost to expand employment.
　イエレン氏は記者会見で、深刻な失業問題に言及し、雇用拡大に全力を挙げる姿勢を示した。

Stock and other financial markets have welcomed her nomination, presumably from expectations of Yellen as a “dove” who gives priority to economic growth and employment and therefore actively favors monetary easing.
　株式や金融市場が好感しているのは、成長と雇用を重視し、金融緩和に積極的な「ハト派」のイエレン氏への期待の表れだ。

Since September last year, the Fed has enacted the third phase of its quantitative monetary easing policy, called QE3, purchasing Treasury and mortgage bonds worth $85 billion (about ¥8.4 trillion) every month.
　ＦＲＢは、米国債などを毎月８５０億ドル（約８・４兆円）購入する量的緩和第３弾（ＱＥ３）を昨年９月から続けている。

It is obviously impossible to continue the QE3 permanently, and sooner or later the Fed will have to steer toward normalizing financial policy. The focus of attention in this respect is when to begin the process of phasing down the purchasing pace to eventually end the money easing policy.
　だが、ＱＥ３を恒久的に継続することはできず、いずれ政策を正常化する舵(かじ)取りが求められる。焦点は、購入ペースをいつから縮小し、緩和策を終了させるかだ。

Having refrained from reducing its bond purchases last month, the Fed is considered likely to start trimming such purchases in December. There is still speculation, however, that the start of the unwinding process could be delayed to early next year if improvement in the employment situation and the pace of business recovery are slow.
　ＦＲＢは先月に縮小を見送ったばかりで、縮小開始は１２月が有力視される。雇用改善や景気回復ペースが緩慢な場合、開始時期が越年するとの観測もくすぶる。

Rough and careless enforcement of an exit strategy runs the risk of nipping an uptrend in the U.S. economy in the bud. On the other hand, delaying implementation of the exit strategy could lead to such adverse outcomes as dangerous bubbles in assets like stocks and real estate.
　拙速に出口戦略に踏み出せば、景気を腰折れさせかねない。逆にタイミングが遅れると、資産バブルなど副作用も懸念される。

Now is a daunting time in which the question must be addressed of how to realize a soft landing for terminating the QE3 while also paying due attention to the need for the Fed’s so-called dialogue with markets.
　「市場との対話」を工夫しながら、ＱＥ３終了へ、いかに軟着陸を図るか。難しい局面である。

Sufficient attention must also be paid to the danger of changes in the U.S. economy adversely affecting global business trends, including in Japan and emerging economies.
　米国経済の変調が、日本や新興国など世界の景気に悪影響を及ぼすことにも警戒しなければならない。

The incoming Fed chair will bear extremely heavy responsibilities.
女性議長の責任は重い。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Oct. 13, 2013)
（2013年10月13日01時34分  読売新聞）