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2014年3月20日 (木)

黒田日銀1年 これからが脱デフレの正念場

The Yomiuri Shimbun March 20, 2014
One year into Kuroda’s tenure, key tests for battle against deflation still lie ahead
黒田日銀1年 これからが脱デフレの正念場(3月20日付・読売社説)

Thursday marked one year since Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda assumed his post.
 日本銀行の黒田東彦総裁が、20日で就任1年を迎えた。

While his leadership has helped boost the economic recovery with what has been called “a different dimension” of monetary easing policy, the bank’s strategy for pulling the nation out of deflation and realizing a 2 percent price increase in two years is still only at its halfway point. It is fair to say that the real trial is yet to come.
 異次元の金融緩和で景気回復を後押ししたが、2年で物価上昇率2%を目指す脱デフレ戦略は道半ばだ。これからが正念場と言える。

Last April, shortly after the central bank came under Kuroda’s leadership, the BOJ implemented a bold monetary easing measure in accordance with the first arrow of Abenomics, the economic policy package pursued under the administration of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
 黒田日銀は発足間もない昨年4月、安倍政権の経済政策「アベノミクス」の1本目の矢として大胆な金融緩和策を打ち出した。

The strategy, which included a doubling of the money supply to ¥270 trillion in two years, has produced positive effects. The yen has declined and stock prices have risen, buoying the overall economy.
 日銀の資金供給量を2年で2倍の270兆円に拡大する内容を好感して円安・株高が進み、景気を浮揚させる成果を上げた。

Growth in the consumer price index, which was in negative territory when Kuroda assumed his post, has now topped 1 percent annually. Kuroda has expressed his view that the nation is “on a steady track” to achieve the targeted 2 percent price increase.
 就任時にマイナスだった消費者物価上昇率は、プラス1%を超えた。黒田総裁は2%の目標達成に向けて「道筋を順調にたどっている」との見方を示している。

The fiscal 2014 budget is expected to be passed as early as on Thursday. Together with an expeditious fiscal policy—the second arrow of Abenomics—the sizable budget is expected to give a further boost to the Japanese economy on its track toward rejuvenation.
 2014年度予算も、20日にスピード成立する見込みだ。2本目の矢である機動的な財政政策とあわせ、日本経済再生に弾みがつくことが期待される。

In the private sector, however, many are skeptical that the nation can pull itself out of deflation as the central bank has hoped.
 ただし、民間では、日銀の想定通りにデフレを脱却できるかどうか、疑問視する声が多い。

Problematic is that there is a strong element of a vicious circle of price increases, due mainly to the yen’s continued decline and the soaring prices of raw material imports. The possible impact of the consumption tax increase from 5 percent to 8 percent in April may have a further adverse effect on the economy.
 問題なのは、現在の物価上昇が円安進行や輸入原材料の高騰などによる「悪い物価上昇」の側面が強い点である。

Answering upcoming challenges

There is a substantial fear of a marked drop-off in private consumption, resulting in part from contraction after the last-minute rise in demand that has seen consumers buying electrical appliances and automobiles before the tax increase.
 4月に消費税率が5%から8%に引き上げられる影響も、追い打ちとなりかねない。増税前に家電や自動車を購入する「駆け込み需要」の反動減も出て、消費が大きく落ち込む懸念は大きい。

Unless the impact of the consumption tax hike is held to a minimum, progress toward the exit from deflation will suffer.
 消費増税の打撃を最小限にとどめないと、脱デフレへの道はさらに険しくなるだろう。

In this respect, Kuroda’s position that “if necessary, we will not hesitate in adjusting [the monetary policy]” is very reasonable. We urge the bank to detail specifically what sort of steps it can take next.
 黒田総裁が金融政策について、「必要があれば躊躇(ちゅうちょ)なく調整する」と述べているのは妥当だ。どのような「次の一手」を打てるか、具体的な検討が求められる。

Increases in employee wages agreed on between labor and management at major corporations during the annual spring wage negotiations, particularly in the manufacturing sector, were a noteworthy development. It is necessary for wage hikes to ripple out from large companies to mid-sized and smaller companies, thereby establishing a favorable economic cycle of expanding incomes and boosting the overall economy.
 今年の春闘では、製造業を中心に賃上げの動きが目立った。持続的な賃上げを、大企業から中小企業に波及させ、所得増加が景気を押し上げる「好循環」を軌道に乗せねばならない。

Cooperation between the government and the central bank to give an additional boost to the growth strategy—the third arrow of Abenomics—and to spur the vitality of the private sector is a crucial part of realizing that goal.
 そのために重要なのは、政府と日銀が連携して、3本目の矢である成長戦略をさらに強化し、民間活力を引き出すことだ。

Improving the financial operations that comprise the “bloodstream of the economy” is one more challenge. Although the central bank is rapidly increasing the money supply, lending by financial institutions has been sluggish. The next test is finding a way to raise the demand for funds among private companies.
 「経済の血流」とされる金融の機能強化も課題である。日銀が資金供給量を急増させているのに、金融機関の貸し出しは伸び悩んでいる。企業の資金需要をいかに高めるかが問われよう。

The central bank decided last month to continue into the next fiscal year, which begins in April, its policy of expanding the money supply at a low interest rate to financial institutions that have proven proactive in lending money.
 日銀は先月、融資に前向きな金融機関に低利で資金供給する制度を拡充し、来年度も継続する方針を決めた。

We express our appreciation of the bank’s stance of working hard to promote financing.
融資促進策を粘り強く続ける姿勢を評価したい。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, March 20, 2014)
(2014年3月20日01時52分  読売新聞)

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