公示地価 アベノミクス効果で底入れか

The Yomiuri Shimbun March 24, 2014
Land prices may have bottomed out, but trends must be carefully watched
公示地価　アベノミクス効果で底入れか（3月23日付・読売社説）

Officially assessed land prices have finally turned upward in major urban areas thanks to Abenomics, a development that we hope will invigorate the real estate market and increase momentum toward ending the nation’s long-running deflation.
　安倍政権の経済政策、アベノミクスの効果で大都市圏の地価がようやく上昇に転じた。不動産市場を活性化し、デフレ克服に弾みをつけたい。

A report released by the Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Ministry on Tuesday showed official land prices as of Jan. 1 in both residential and commercial areas in the three major metropolitan areas of Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya increased from a year earlier for the first time in six years.
　国土交通省が発表した１月１日の公示地価は、東京、大阪、名古屋の３大都市圏で、住宅地、商業地がともに６年ぶりに前年比プラスとなった。

In particular, Tokyo’s bay areas, where many venues of the 2020 Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games will be located, saw around 10 percent increases in land prices.
　特に２０２０年に東京五輪・パラリンピックが開催される都の湾岸地区は１０％前後も上昇した。

The average prices for both residential and commercial land tracts surveyed nationwide decreased for the sixth consecutive year but at slower rates.
　全国平均の公示地価は住宅地、商業地とも６年連続のマイナスだったが、下落幅は縮小した。

Domestic land prices, which plummeted due to economic deterioration in the wake of Lehman Brothers’ collapse in 2008, have begun to bottom out, led by rising land prices in major urban areas.
　０８年のリーマン・ショック後の景気悪化で落ち込んだ地価は、大都市圏が先行する形で底入れしつつあると言えよう。

An economic recovery brought on by Abenomics and bold monetary easing pursued by the Bank of Japan have fueled momentum to redevelop urban areas, helping land prices to recover. And with expectations for Japan’s economic growth, money from overseas speculators has also flowed into the domestic real state market.
　アベノミクスによる景気回復と日銀による大胆な金融緩和を背景に、都市再開発の機運が高まり、地価の回復を後押しした。日本経済の成長を期待し、海外の投機マネーも不動産市場に流入した。

Symbolic of this trend, the total asset value of real estate investment trusts (REITs)—which procure funds from investors to buy real estate and pay them dividends from rent revenue and other sources—registered a record high in Japan last year.
　投資家から集めた資金で不動産を購入し、賃料収入などを配当として分配する不動産投資信託（ＲＥＩＴ）の資産総額が昨年、過去最高となったのは象徴的だ。

In addition to the beneficial effects brought by such policies as low interest rates and tax breaks for housing loans, the last-minute increase in demand for housing ahead of the hike in the consumption tax rate in April has been robust.
　低金利や住宅ローン減税などの政策効果に加え、４月の消費税率の引き上げを控えて、住宅の駆け込み需要も旺盛だった。

However, how land prices will move from now needs to be carefully watched.
　だが、今後の地価動向には、注意が必要である。

Concerns remain

Of concern is a drop in demand due to a rebound from the last-minute boost in demand. Also, higher prices for building materials and a labor shortage in the construction sector will push construction costs higher. It is feared this may cool the housing market and put a damper on the trend of land prices bottoming out.
　駆け込み需要の反動減が心配されるほか、建材値上げや人手不足による建設費高騰で住宅市場が冷え込み、地価の底入れ傾向に水を差す恐れがあるからだ。

The government should carefully observe the effect of the expansion of housing loan tax breaks and other measures that are planned to prevent an economic slump after the consumption tax rate is raised.
　政府は消費増税後の景気対策として拡充する住宅ローン減税などの効果を見極めるべきだろう。

Especially worrisome is how land prices in local areas will fare. Core cities such as Sapporo, Sendai and Fukuoka have seen increases in their land prices, but land prices in a significant number of areas have continued to drop. The gap in recovering land prices between urban areas and rural regions could widen further.
　特に懸念されるのが、回復が遅れている地方の動きだ。札幌や仙台、福岡など中核都市の地価は上昇したが、下落を続ける地方も目立つ。都市部と取り残された地方との格差が広がりかねない。

There are not only structural problems with the local economies, including depopulation, but there are also signs that they are lagging behind in economic recovery because the effects of Abenomics have not reached them.
　過疎化などの地方経済の構造問題だけでなく、アベノミクスの恩恵が及ばず、景気回復が遅れている事情がうかがえる。

The government must push ahead with regulation reforms and other measures of its growth strategy, which can lead to a recovery in the local economies, halting the slide in overall land prices across the nation.
　政府は規制改革などの成長戦略を進めて、地方景気の回復につなげ、全国的な地価の持ち直しを実現しなければならない。

Eight of the top 10 locations that saw the highest rates of increases in residential tracts of land were on high ground and in other areas in Miyagi and Fukushima prefectures. This reflected the high demand for land plots for reconstructing houses for victims of the Great East Japan Earthquake.
　全国の住宅地の上昇率上位１０か所のうち８か所を宮城、福島県の高台などが占めた。東日本大震災の被災者による住宅再建の需要が多いためである。

It is essential for the government and the local governments to remain vigilant so speculative land purchases made with the aim for reselling for profits will not result in a sharp rise in land prices, scuttling efforts to reconstruct disaster-afflicted areas.
　転売目的の投機で地価が急騰して復興に支障が生じぬよう政府と自治体は監視を強めるべきだ。

(From The Yomirui Shimbun, March 23, 2014)
（2014年3月23日01時42分  読売新聞）