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2014年5月 2日 (金)

日銀物価見通し デフレ脱却へ楽観は禁物だ

The Yomiuri Shimbun 7:58 pm, May 01, 2014
Central bank must keep guard up, increase cooperation with government
日銀物価見通し デフレ脱却へ楽観は禁物だ

It is reassuring that the Bank of Japan has shown confidence in bailing the nation out of deflation. But at all costs it must not let its guard down. The central bank must further reinforce its cooperation with the government.
 日銀がデフレ脱却に自信を示したことは心強いが、楽観は禁物だ。
 政府との連携を一段と強化しなければならない。

At its policy board meeting Wednesday, the central bank decided to maintain its policy of monetary easing of “a different dimension,” which was adopted in April last year.
 日銀は金融政策決定会合を開き、昨年4月に打ち出した「異次元の金融緩和」の維持を決めた。

The bank also released its semiannual Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices Report, in which it estimates the outlook for economic growth and the consumer price index, as well as its first outlook for fiscal 2016.
経済成長や物価の先行きを予想する「展望リポート」を発表し、2016年度の見通しも初めて示した。

Last April, the central bank adopted a target of achieving 2 percent inflation in two years.
 日銀は昨春、物価上昇率を「2年で2%」とする目標を掲げた。

In its outlook report, the bank estimates that the nation’s core consumer price index, excluding the impact of the consumption tax hike on April 1, will rise 1.9 percent in fiscal 2015 and 2.1 percent in fiscal 2016. The report can be seen as the bank’s scenario for pulling the nation out of deflation, in accordance with the target.
展望リポートは、消費増税の影響を除く物価上昇率について、15年度は1・9%、16年度は2・1%を見込んだ。目標通りデフレを克服するシナリオと言える。

Central bank Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda said at a press conference Wednesday that the nation is “on a steady track” to achieve the 2 percent inflation target. By showing the central bank’s strong resolve to achieve the target, it also aims to enhance the effect of its policy decision.
 黒田東彦日銀総裁は記者会見で、物価目標の達成へ、「道筋を順調にたどっている」と述べた。強い決意を示すことで、政策効果を高める狙いもあろう。

But the central bank’s estimates may be too optimistic, which is worrying.
 気がかりなのは、日銀の見立てが甘すぎないかという点だ。

Private research organizations have given a median forecast of 1 percent growth in the core consumer price index for fiscal 2015, only half the increase predicted by the central bank. Also, more than 70 percent of economic research organizations expect the central bank to take additional monetary easing measures by August.
 民間調査機関の予測する15年度の物価上昇率は平均1%と、日銀予想の半分にとどまる。さらに7割超の調査機関が、今年8月までの追加緩和策を予想している。

It further needs to be noted that three members of the nine-member policy board expressed opposition to the wording in the outlook report concerning the timing for achieving the 2 percent inflation target.
 日銀の決定会合メンバーのうち3人が、目標の達成時期などで展望リポートの表現に反対論を述べた点も注目される。

Outlook uncertain

Behind these critical opinions is uncertainty about the nation’s economic outlook.
 こうした厳しい見方の背景には景気の先行き不透明感がある。

The financial burden on ordinary households has increased as one month has passed since the consumption tax rate was raised from 5 percen to 8 percent. We cannot dispel concern that there will be a fall in consumer sentiment and that real consumer prices, excluding the effect of the consumption tax hike, will be pushed down.
 消費税率が5%から8%に上がって1か月がたち、家計の負担は増している。消費心理が冷え、増税分を除く実質的な物価が押し下げられる懸念は拭えない。

Price increases in recent months have mostly stemmed from “detrimental price increases” that will pull down the overall economy. The yen’s weakness has markedly pushed up the purchase prices of imported raw materials, and power companies have had to raise their utility rates because they must import more fuel for thermal power generation since all nuclear reactors remain halted.
 これまでの物価上昇は、円安を背景とした輸入原材料の高騰や、原子力発電所の停止に伴う電気料金値上げなど、景気の足を引っ張る「悪い物価高」の面が強い。大きな不安材料だ。

The central bank must examine the effect of its policy measures properly, and take additional appropriate measures if necessary.
 日銀は政策効果をしっかり点検し、必要ならば、適切な追加策を講じるべきである。

However, the market will often overreact when expectations abound for the central bank to take additional monetary easing measures. To avoid sending the market into disarray, the central bank needs to communicate detailed information to the market.
 ただし、追加緩和の期待が高まると、市場は過剰反応しがちだ。日銀は丁寧に情報発信し、混乱の回避に努めてもらいたい。

Needless to say, the central bank’s monetary policy alone cannot fully bail the nation out of deflation. It is essential for the government to promote an effective growth strategy and realize a sustainable growth led by the private sector.
 むろん、日銀の金融政策だけでデフレの完治は望めまい。政府が実効性のある成長戦略を推進し、民間主導の持続的な成長を実現することが不可欠となる。

The bottom line is that the government needs to create the kind of environment that will help private-sector companies seize new business opportunities, through such measures as drastically easing regulations.
 肝心なのは大胆な規制緩和などで、民間が新たなビジネスに挑戦しやすい環境を整えることだ。

The key to the elimination of deflation lies in the acceleration of innovative actions taken by private companies to produce goods and services that consumers will want to purchase, even if they have relatively higher costs.
 価格が割高でも消費者が買いたくなる製品やサービスを生み出すイノベーション(技術革新)の加速が、デフレを退治できるかどうかの重要なカギを握る。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, May 1, 2014)

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