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2014年6月18日 (水)

年金運用改革 リスク見極めて慎重に進めよ

The Yomiuri Shimbun
Pension operation reform must be pushed via careful risk assessment
年金運用改革 リスク見極めて慎重に進めよ

How can pension funds, which sustain so many in their later years, be safely and advantageously operated?
 老後の生活を支える年金資金を、いかに安全かつ有利に運用するか。

Pension fund management system reforms should benefit the people who pay pension premiums.
 年金保険料を負担している国民の利益につながる改革とするべきだ。

The government has incorporated a review of the public pension funds operation system into a draft plan for its new growth strategy. The plan is aimed at improving the return on investment for funds held by the Government Pension Investment Fund and maintaining pension payments at the highest levels possible.
 政府は、新たな成長戦略の素案に、公的年金の資金運用見直しを盛り込んだ。年金積立金管理運用独立行政法人(GPIF)が保有する資産の投資収益を向上させ、できるだけ高い年金給付水準を維持するのが狙いである。

The Government Pension Investment Fund is one of the world’s largest pension funds, with assets totaling about ¥130 trillion. In general terms, 60 percent of the fund is invested in domestic bonds, including Japanese government bonds, and 12 percent in the domestic stock market.
 GPIFは、約130兆円の資産を保有する世界最大級の年金基金だ。運用の基本比率は、国債などの国内債券が60%を占め、国内株式は12%にとどまる。

Investment in government bonds offers the benefits of stability and reliability, but does not offer expectations for huge returns. The government is said to be examining the possibility of increasing the ratio of funds invested in stocks, which are expected to produce higher returns, as well as adding real estate investment trusts as one investment for the fund.
 国債は安定して運用できる利点がある一方、大きな収益は得にくい。より高い収益を見込める株式の運用枠拡大や、不動産投資信託(REIT)を運用対象に加えることなどを検討するという。

Capital flow into stocks and real estate would be expected to support stock prices and businesses, generating in turn a virtuous circle leading to further improvement of investment returns. It is not hard to understand why the government is seeking to disperse and diversify investment targets.
 株式や不動産への資金流入が株価や景気を支え、運用実績のさらなる改善をもたらす「好循環」も期待される。運用先を分散、多様化する方向性は理解できる。

Dismal return ratio

The Government Pension Investment Fund’s average investment returns crawled along at around 2 percent over the past 12 years. Indeed, the fund’s performance compares poorly with pension funds in the United States and Europe, which boast higher return rates.
 GPIFの過去12年間の平均運用収益率は約2%にとどまる。株式運用の比率が高い欧米などの年金基金に比べると、利回りが見劣りしているのは確かである。

According to a government estimate of pension finances, pensions cannot be maintained at targeted levels unless investment yields of 4.2 percent can be achieved.
 政府の年金財政検証によると、将来の給付水準の目標を保てる標準的なケースは、4・2%の運用利回りが前提だ。

Improved long-term return on their investments is also desirable as part of bolstering pension finances. The reallocation of a certain portion of investment from government bonds into stocks and other assets could be a rational judgment to make.
 年金財政の強化という観点からも、長期的な収益率の改善が望まれている。一定の範囲で国債から株式などに運用対象を切り替えるのは、合理的な判断と言える。

But it cannot be forgotten that stock prices carry the risk of sharp declines, depending on business trends.
 ただし、経済動向などによって株価が急落する危険があることも忘れてはならない。

Public pension reserves—the portion of premiums not paid back out as pension payments—are the fund’s “nest egg,” managed to create future pension payments.
 公的年金の積立金は、年金保険料収入のうち給付に充てなかった分を運用し、将来の給付に備えるまさに「虎の子」の資金だ。

If the Government Pension Investment Fund suffers a major loss after significantly increasing the ratio of stock investment to gain immediate profits, it could cause significant cuts to the pensions received by future generations.
 目先の利益を得るため株式比率を極端に増やした結果、年金基金が巨額の損失を出す事態を招けば、将来世代が受け取る年金が大きく減ってしまう恐れがある。

The fund should move carefully with the planned expansion of stock investments, shifting funds in phases and making thorough assessments of the economic situation along the way.
 株式運用の拡大は、経済情勢などを見極めながら、慎重かつ段階的に進めるべきである。

The fund’s investment activities run a risk of distorting the formation of stock prices and confusing stock markets if they are seen as part of government purchases of stocks aimed at short-term price increases.
 GPIFの投資行動が、短期的な株高を目的とした「株価維持政策」と見られれば、株価形成をゆがめ、市場を混乱させる。

To prevent investment decisions from being influenced by political pressure and other inappropriate factors, the independence and transparency of Government Pension Investment Fund must be enhanced. Gathering together highly knowledgeable experts in financial matters and enhancing risk management systems are also vital challenges for pension reform.
 投資判断が政治の圧力などに大きく左右されないよう、GPIFの独立性と透明性を高めることが大事だ。高度な金融知識を持つ人材を集め、リスク管理体制を充実させる取り組みも欠かせない。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, June 17, 2014)

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