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2014年6月10日 (火)

シリア大統領選 圧勝でも強権は免罪されない

The Yomiuri Shimbun
Assad’s landslide reelection will never exonerate guilt of iron-fist atrocities
シリア大統領選 圧勝でも強権は免罪されない

After apparently being driven into a desperate situation for a while by opponents of his regime, a dictator whose oppression of his own people led to a civil war seems to be regaining control of his nation.
 自国民を弾圧して内戦を招き、一時は反体制派に追い込まれたように見えた独裁者が、息を吹き返してきたと言える。

In Syria, where a civil war has lasted for nearly three years, a presidential election was held on Tuesday, resulting in President Bashar Assad—who had been strongly pressured by the United States and European countries to step down—winning a third term in office by securing 88.7 percent of the votes cast.
 3年近く内戦下にあるシリアで大統領選が行われ、米欧から退陣を求められていたアサド氏が88・7%という高い得票率で3選を果たした。

With the fall of the city of Homs last month in the war-ravaged country’s central region, which had been a key stronghold of the insurgents, the civil war has been evolving conspicuously to the advantage of the Assad regime. The number of fatalities has surpassed 160,000. The war so far has prompted about 2.77 million people to flee Syria’s borders and internally displaced more than 6.5 million.
 内戦は、反体制派の要塞・中部ホムスが陥落し、今や、政権側の優位が固まっている。死者は推定16万人を超える。国外に脱出した難民は約277万人、国内避難民は650万人以上とされる。

Many of those people were unable to cast ballots in the election, and the rebel groups could not vote.
 こうした人々の多くは投票できず、反体制派は締め出された。

The United States denounced the presidential election as making a “farce” of democracy, while a declaration of the latest summit of the Group of Seven industrially advanced countries in Brussels called the poll a “fake election.” Assad’s reelection to a third seven-year term through a government-set election in the middle of a protracted uprising against his rule will never be considered legitimate.
 米国は「民主主義の猿まねだ」と糾弾し、先進7か国(G7)も首脳宣言で「偽りの選挙」と非難した。戦時下の「官製選挙」によるアサド氏3選に正統性が認められないのは当然である。

Behind the failure of the scenario envisaged by the United States and Europe—the ousting of Assad and the democratization of Syria—lies fundamental changes in the shape of the civil war.
 米欧が描いてきた「アサド退陣」と「民主化」のシナリオが破綻した背景には、内戦の構図の根本的な変質がある。

Opposing forces split

Rebel groups against the Assad regime were initially made up of forces seeking the country’s democratization. Because the mainstay of antigovernment moderates supported by the United States and Europe was based outside Syria, however, domestic support for them was weak. In addition, they were plagued by internal strife to the point that they eventually split, resulting in a loss of public trust.
 反体制派は当初、国内の民主化勢力で構成されていた。だが、米欧が支持する穏健派の主力は、拠点が国外にあり、国内の支持が弱かった。内部抗争を繰り返した末、分裂し、国民の信頼も失った。

Taking advantage of the adverse situation, a massive influx began from abroad of extremist Islamic armed forces, including terrorist groups linked to Al-Qaida, who have become a major force in the fight against the Assad regime. The democratic cause has thus been cast aside.
 その混乱に乗じるように、「反米・反欧」を掲げるアル・カーイダ系テロ組織など、外国のイスラム過激派武装勢力が流入し、アサド政権と戦闘する主体となった。民主化の大義は失われた。

In the eyes of the United States and Europe, Islamic extremists are enemies in the fight against terrorism, and their existence is considered even more dangerous than that of the Assad regime.
 米欧にすれば、イスラム過激派は「テロとの戦い」の対象で、アサド政権以上に危険な存在だ。

Should the Assad regime be toppled, the Islamic extremists would emerge victorious, a situation that would not only threaten the security of Israel but also would inevitably destabilize the entire Middle East.
 仮にアサド政権が倒れれば、イスラム過激派の台頭を許し、イスラエルの安全保障が脅かされるばかりか、中東全体が不安定化するのは避けられない。

Having failed to find a reasonable alternative to the Assad regime, the United States and Europe have no choice but to effectively give the Assad regime a tacit nod in hopes that it will gain the upper hand over the rebels. Expediency on the part of the United States and Europe can hardly be denied.
 アサド政権の受け皿作りに失敗した米欧は、現体制を交代させる有効な手段を失い、アサド政権が内戦で優位に立つのを事実上、黙認してきた。「ご都合主義」の側面も否定できない。

Peace talks with the U.N.-Arab League Joint Special Representative on the Syrian crisis as the go-between have ended without result.
 ブラヒミ国連・アラブ連盟共同特別代表の仲介による和平交渉も空中分解してしまった。

Though the destruction of more than 90 percent of Syria’s stockpile of chemical weapons on the basis of a U.S.-Russia agreement was a positive outcome, the destruction of those weapons was made under the assumption that the Assad regime would remain in power.
 米露間の合意に基づく化学兵器の廃棄作業の9割以上が完了したことは、一つの成果ではあるが、この作業自体、アサド政権の存続を前提にしたものだった。

The destruction of chemical weapons, of course, can never be a reason to exonerate the Assad regime for what it has done. The international community must continue to keep a vigilant eye on future moves by the iron-fisted dictator, who must be held responsible for the massive casualties in the civil war.
 無論、化学兵器の廃棄によってアサド政権を免罪することはできない。国際社会は、内戦の大きな犠牲の責任を負うべき強権的な独裁者の行動に、引き続き厳しく目を光らせる必要がある。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, June 8, 2014)

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