「消費税１０％」 やはり軽減税率が不可欠だ

The Yomiuri Shimbun
Lower rate for some items necessary if consumption tax rate hiked to 10%
「消費税１０％」　やはり軽減税率が不可欠だ

　◆家計への過大な負担は避けよ

Will the planned hike in the consumption tax rate heap further pressure on the stuttering economy?
　さらなる消費増税が、景気の停滞に追い打ちをかけることはないか。

The government and ruling parties have stepped up discussions over whether the consumption tax rate should be increased from the current 8 percent to 10 percent as scheduled in October 2015.
　消費税率を予定通り２０１５年１０月に、８％から１０％へ引き上げるかどうかを巡って、政府・与党内で論議が活発化している。

While fiscal reconstruction is not an issue that can continually be kicked down the road and dealt with later, the sluggish consumption that has persisted since the tax rate was jacked up from 5 percent in April must not be taken lightly.
　財政再建は先送りできない課題だが、今年４月の消費増税後、消費の低迷が続いていることを軽視してはならない。

If the consumption tax rate is to be lifted to 10 percent, we think the government should introduce a reduced rate for daily necessities such as some food items, to minimize the burden that will be placed on household budgets.
　仮に「消費税１０％」に踏み切るのなら、食料品など必需品の税率を低く抑える軽減税率を導入し、家計の負担を和らげるべきだ。

Tough decision looming
　◆迫られる難しい決断

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe plans to decide by the end of the year whether to go ahead with the planned tax hike. He will make this decision after confirming important economic indicators, such as the nation’s gross domestic product for the July-September quarter.
　安倍首相は７～９月期の国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）などの経済指標を確認し、年末までに増税に踏み切るかどうか決める方針だ。

If the tax increase is put off, the government’s efforts to lock in revenue sources for Japan’s snowballing social welfare costs will become even more difficult. The likelihood of attaining the government’s goal of a primary budget surplus by the end of fiscal 2020 also will fade.
　見送った場合、社会保障費の財源確保がさらに厳しくなり、２０年度までに基礎的財政収支を黒字化する政府目標の達成も遠のく。

That said, however, if the higher consumption tax rate derails the economic recovery and sinks efforts to break out of deflation, everything will be lost.
　かといって、増税の影響で景気が腰折れし、デフレを脱却できなくなっては、元も子もない。

Abe has said, “I will make a decision that will be helpful to the people’s lives.” The prime minister faces a very difficult choice, one in which he must give consideration to the overall picture of the economic recovery and the state of the nation’s finances.
　首相は、「国民の生活に資する判断をしたい」と述べている。景気や財政の状況を総合的に勘案した、難しい決断を迫られよう。

Special attention should be given to the direction of consumption trends, which will be significantly affected if the tax rate is hiked to 10 percent.
　消費税率を１０％に上げる場合には、大きな影響を受ける消費の動向に、特段の注意を要する。

The Family Income and Expenditure Survey, a key monthly gauge compiled by the government, revealed that average consumption expenditures by regular households dropped year-on-year for five consecutive months from April, when the tax rate was increased.
　代表的な指標である家計調査では、一般世帯の消費支出が４月から５か月連続でマイナスだ。

While unseasonal weather has played a part, sales at summer bonus time were sluggish in spite of aggressive campaigns. Spending on consumer durables such as air conditioners has plunged. Consumption of travel and other services, which saw barely a bump in last-minute demand before the tax rate was ratcheted up, remains tepid.
　天候不順もあり、夏のボーナス商戦は低調で、エアコンなど耐久消費財への支出が急減した。増税前の駆け込み需要がほとんど見られなかった旅行などのサービス消費も、不調が続いている。

The inevitable fall in response to the tax increase is one reason for this. However, another major cause of these prolonged consumption doldrums is that wage increases have not kept up with rising prices, some of which have jumped by more than the three percentage point margin of the higher tax rate.
　増税後の「反動減」とは別に、消費増税分を含め３％を超える物価上昇率に、収入の伸びが追いついていないことが、消費不振を長引かせている大きな原因だ。

Prices of imported grains and other natural resources have climbed due to the yen’s weakness. Moves to raise prices of food and other items are spreading. There are concerns that more consumers will tighten their purse strings as they take “defensive measures” to protect their daily lifestyles.
　円安で穀物や資源の輸入価格が上昇し、食料品などに値上げの動きも広がってきた。節約による「生活防衛」に動く消費者が、一層増える恐れがある。

When the consumption tax rate was hiked to 8 percent, the government unveiled a ¥5.5 trillion economic stimulus package to cushion the blow. The package centered on public works projects, while measures designed to aid consumers were limited. A special cash benefit of ¥10,000 to ¥15,000 paid to low-income earners was intended to help blunt the impact on family budgets, but was too small to have any tangible effect.
　政府が消費税８％時に打ち出した５・５兆円規模の経済対策は、公共事業が中心で、消費者向けの施策は限られた。低所得者への１万～１・５万円の給付措置も、家計支援としては力不足だった。

Based on lessons drawn from the drop in consumption, the government should consider what effective steps it can take to prevent a “consumer recession.”
　政府は、消費が落ち込んだ教訓を踏まえ、「消費不況」の防止に有効な対策を検討すべきだ。

Winnowing eligible items
　◆対象品目をどう絞るか

Unlike a single-serving lump-sum payment, lower tax rates for essential commodities can have a long-lasting effect in curbing tax burdens. Every time a consumer purchases an item covered by the reduced-tax-rate system, he or she will actually feel the benefit, so the system is also desirable from the standpoint of keeping consumer confidence from being chilled.
　軽減税率なら、１回限りの給付金とは違い、負担軽減の効き目は持続する。対象品を購入するたびに軽減措置の恩恵を実感できることから、消費者心理の冷え込みを防ぐ効果も期待できよう。

The Liberal Democratic Party and its ruling coalition partner Komeito embarked on full-fledged debates on the advisability of introducing reduced tax rates in a consultative meeting of the two parties on Wednesday.
　自民、公明両党は８日の与党税制協議会で、軽減税率に関する本格的な論議を始動させた。

Although the ruling parties, in adopting a tax system reform outline toward the end of 2013, did refer explicitly to a policy of introducing a reduced-tax-rate system, it is worrisome that a considerable gap remains between the LDP and Komeito regarding their eagerness for realizing lower rates.
　気がかりなのは、昨年末の与党税制改正大綱で、消費税率１０％時に軽減税率を導入する方針が明記されたのに、依然として自民党と公明党に温度差があることだ。

Tetsuo Saito, chairman of Komeito’s Tax Research Council, has come out actively in favor of lower rates, saying, “We are determined to address the task of introducing a reduced-tax-rate system with an unflagging resolve.”
　公明党の斉藤鉄夫税制調査会長が、「軽減税率導入に不退転の決意で臨む」と積極姿勢を見せるのに対し、

In contrast, his LDP counterpart, Takeshi Noda, chairman of the party’s Research Commission on the Tax System, is still cautious. Noda has only said, “We haven’t finalized the details [on the reduced rate system] yet.”
自民党の野田毅税調会長は、「これから丁寧に詰めていく」と慎重である。

Groups that support the LDP, such as organizations of small and midsize businesses, have opposed the idea of reduced tax rates, mainly on the grounds that it would raise their administrative costs.
　自民党を支持する中小企業団体などは、事務負担の増加などを懸念して反対している。

If different tax rates are applied to different categories of items, more time and effort will certainly be needed in keeping accounts and following tax payment procedures.
　確かに、品目によって違う税率が適用されれば、帳簿作りや納税事務の手間は増える。

It should be noted, however, that most European nations have introduced reduced rates into their value added taxes (VATs), the European version of Japan’s consumption tax.
　ただ、欧州諸国の大半は、日本の消費税にあたる付加価値税に軽減税率を導入している。

By carefully studying overseas precedents of reduced consumption rates, including VATs, discussions must be deepened about what measures should be adopted to minimize increases in related administrative work for private-sector businesses.
海外の先行事例を研究し、どうすれば民間の事務負担を最小限に抑えられるのか、議論を深めたい。

A lower-rate system applied to all food and beverages would translate to an annual loss of as much as ¥660 billion in consumption tax revenue for every one percentage point cut in the tax rate. How to narrow the scope of items eligible for lower rates is a major challenge.
　軽減税率を全ての「飲食料品」に適用すると、税率を１％軽減するごとに、消費税収は年６６００億円も減る。対象品目をどう絞り込むかが課題だ。

Komeito has been working on plans to rein in tax revenue declines by limiting the items to be covered by a reduced rate system to grains and fresh produce. The ruling parties’ deliberations must swiftly address the specifics of how to put a lower tax rate system into practice.
　公明党が、穀物や生鮮食料品に対象を限って、減収額を抑える案を練っている。与党協議で、具体策の検討を急ぐべきだ。

Newspapers deserve lower rate
　◆新聞と書籍にも配慮を

Food, newspapers and books are subject to lower tax rates in the majority of nations in Europe and elsewhere that apply a lower tax rate on some items.
　欧州諸国など軽減税率を採用する国の大半が、食品と並んで新聞や書籍を対象としている。

In Japan, more than 90 percent of newspapers are home-delivered, and many households receive a newspaper almost every day. This plays a major role in supporting democracy and the culture of the printed word in Japan.
　とりわけ、日本の新聞は戸別配達率が９割以上にのぼり、多くの家庭にほぼ毎日、新聞が届く。これが、民主主義や活字文化を支える大きな役割を果たしている。

Books also have helped to share a wide spectrum of knowledge.
　書籍も、多様な知識の普及に貢献してきた。

Newspapers and books are not merely consumer products. They can be considered an essential public good for maintaining the affluent lifestyle of the people.
　新聞や書籍は、単なる消費財ではなく、豊かな国民生活の維持に欠かせない公共財と言える。

We think Japan should emulate the example set by other nations and adopt a lower tax rate for newspapers and books.
　海外の例にならい、日本も新聞や書籍について、軽減税率を適用すべきである。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Oct. 12, 2014)Speech