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2014年11月 9日 (日)

(社説)日銀追加緩和 目標に無理はないか

物価とは需要と供給のバランスで決まるものです。
日銀が異次元金融緩和して無理して物価をおしあげるものではありません。
この政策、もしも失敗したら、首でもくくるつもりなのでしょうか。
そこまでの覚悟はないとみました。
(スラチャイ)

--The Asahi Shimbun, Nov. 1
EDITORIAL: BOJ should have reviewed inflation target before further monetary easing
(社説)日銀追加緩和 目標に無理はないか

In a surprise move on Oct. 31, the Bank of Japan opened up the monetary taps further to shore up the sagging economy.
 日本銀行が追加の金融緩和に踏み切った。

The central bank had been pursuing a goal of increasing Japan’s monetary base--the total amount of cash in circulation and commercial bank's deposits at the BOJ--by 60 trillion yen ($539 billion) to 70 trillion yen a year. The BOJ has decided to raise the target and expand the monetary base by 80 trillion yen annually.
 市中に出回る現金と銀行の日銀への預金を合わせた金額(マネタリーベース)を、これまで年間60兆~70兆円増やすことを政策の目標にしてきたが、目標を80兆円に拡大する。

To achieve the new target, the BOJ will increase the amount of long-term government bonds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and other assets it buys.
そのために長期国債や、株価指数に連動する投資信託(ETF)などの買い入れ額を増やす。

When it introduced its aggressive, “different dimension” monetary easing program designed to end deflation in April last year, the BOJ set a target of pushing up the annual inflation rate to 2 percent over a roughly two-year period.
 日銀は昨年4月、デフレ脱却を目指して「異次元緩和」を導入した際に「2年程度で、前年比2%の物価上昇を実現」という目標を掲げた。

But signs are not encouraging. Adjusted for the consumption tax hike in April, the nationwide core consumer-price index rose only 1.0 percent in September from a year earlier.
 今年9月の物価上昇率は消費増税の影響を除くと1・0%。

Many private-sector economists have predicted that the inflation rate will remain slightly above 1 percent in the fiscal year that starts in April 2015. It was widely believed to be next to impossible for the central bank to achieve its inflation target.
多くの民間エコノミストは15年度も1%強にとどまるとし、日銀の目標達成はほぼ不可能と見られていた。

The BOJ apparently decided that additional monetary expansion was needed in order to stick to the policy goal of realizing 2 percent inflation in two years.
「2年で2%」の目標を掲げ続けるうえで、追加緩和が必要だったのだろう。

It seems unlikely, however, that the central bank’s action will have a significant impact on the real economy. The BOJ has been ramping up the monetary base at annual rates of several dozen percent. But most of the money the central bank has pumped into financial markets has ended up increasing commercial banks' deposits at the central bank. The amount of money in circulation has been growing by only several percent.
 追加緩和をしても、実体経済に与える影響がそれほど大きいとは考えにくい。これまで日銀は前年比数十%増のペースでマネタリーベースを増やしてきたが、銀行の日銀への預金が増えるばかりで、実際に世の中に出回るお金は数%増にとどまっているからだ。

The BOJ’s latest easing is aimed rather at raising inflationary expectations among consumers, businesses and market players.
 むしろ狙いは、物価が将来、どれほど上がると考えるのかという、消費者や企業、市場関係者らの期待(予想)に働きかけることにある。

When it launched the radical monetary easing drive, the BOJ pledged to bring about a “fundamental change in expectations among markets and economic entities.”
 異次元緩和を導入した際には「市場や経済主体の期待を抜本的に転換させる」としていたし、

In announcing the latest move, the central bank said it is working to “maintain the momentum of the forming of expectations that is turning positive.” The bank also said now is a “vital moment” for its fight to slay deflation, expressing its “unwavering resolution” to achieve its mission.
今回は「好転している期待形成のモメンタムを維持する」「今まさに正念場。揺るぎない決意を表明する」とした。

Since the BOJ is trying to change “expectations,” which are hard to define and measure, there is inevitably “much uncertainty” concerning the effects of the action, as BOJ Deputy Governor Kikuo Iwata acknowledged.
とらえどころのない「期待」を変えようというだけに「不確実性が大きい」ことは日銀の岩田規久男副総裁も認めている。

Moreover, the BOJ’s “different dimension” monetary easing program entails some serious risks.
 一方で、異次元緩和策は大きな危うさをはらんでいる。

There are already signs of its unwanted side effects. The BOJ’s massive buying has created a shortage of short-term government bonds, resulting in negative interest rates in the money market. That means some commercial banks are paying more for short-term government bonds than they would receive.
すでに日銀の大量購入で短期国債が足りなくなり、短期金融市場ではお金の出し手が損をする「マイナス金利」が広がっている。

The BOJ has also decided to buy more longer-term government bonds. While it had focused on bonds with an average remaining maturity of about seven years, it will now target those with a remaining maturity of around 10 years.
 追加緩和で、買い入れる国債の償還日までの平均期間を、現在の7年程度から10年程度に延長する。

If it holds government bonds longer, the BOJ will have to take a larger risk while the assets on its balance sheet keep growing. This will also make it harder for the central bank to work out an effective exit strategy for its monetary stimulus program.
国債を持ち続ければ、日銀はその分、膨らむ資産とともに大きなリスクを抱える。緩和策からの「出口」を探ることもより難しくなる。

Of the nine members of the BOJ’s Policy Board, five supported the new action and four were opposed.
 今回の政策決定に賛成したのは9人の委員のうち5人で、4人は反対した。

This indicates that the strategy represents a gamble in which the balance between benefits and risks is hard to estimate.
それだけ効果とリスクのバランスの見極めが難しい賭けだと言える。

The question that should be asked is whether the BOJ should rather have reviewed its target of raising the inflation rate to 2 percent within two years.
 「2年で2%」の目標を見直すべきではなかったのか。

What appears certain is that it will now take longer for the BOJ to wind down its radical easing campaign.
出口が遠くなったことだけは確かなようである。

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