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2014年12月25日 (木)

地震予測地図 日本中どこでも災害は起きる

The Yomiuri Shimbun
Major earthquake disasters could strike anywhere in the nation
地震予測地図 日本中どこでも災害は起きる

What is the probability of a major earthquake striking each part of the nation?
 日本各地が、どれくらいの確率で、大きな地震に襲われるか。

The government’s Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion has unveiled its 2014 version of a geographical forecast for massive quakes nationwide, a color-coded map based on the most up-to-date knowledge and expertise gained through the study of seismic activity in all parts of the country.
 政府の地震調査研究推進本部が、最新の知見をまとめた「全国地震動予測地図」を公表した。

The map uses a certain color to indicate the degree of earthquake risk in each area. A glance at the map shows us that no region in this nation is free from the risk of seismic disaster. The map is another sharp reminder that Japan is one of the world’s most earthquake-prone archipelagoes.
 危険度ごとに色分けされた地図を見ると、地震災害と無縁の場所は、国内のどこにもないことが分かる。日本は世界有数の災害列島だと改めて実感する。

With this in mind, it is important to utilize the map as a tool for devising measures to reduce earthquake disaster damage in each part of the county.
予測地図を各地の防災対策に生かしたい。

One of the stark forecasts given by the map is the probability that a quake registering lower 6 or higher on the Japanese seismic intensity scale of 7 — an earthquake that can destroy some buildings with low quake resistance — will strike within 30 years. The data in question shows that no further delay may be permitted in taking necessary measures.
 今後30年以内に、一部の耐震性の低い建物が壊れる震度6弱以上の揺れが起きる確率を見ると、切迫した実態が浮き彫りになる。

A case in point is the likelihood that a quake with an intensity of lower 6 or higher will take place around city government buildings in any of the nation’s prefectural capitals. The probability stands at an overwhelming 78 percent in Yokohama, followed by Chiba at an also significant 73 percent, and Mito and Kochi both at 70 percent. The figure for the Tokyo metropolitan government building complex is 46 percent.
 都道府県庁所在地の市庁舎周辺で、確率が最も高いのは、横浜市の78%だ。千葉市は73%、水戸市と高知市も70%と高い。東京都庁は46%となっている。

Contributing to a higher probability of strong seismic vibrations originating in the Kanto region is a massive earthquake feared to hit an area along the Sagami Trough, which extends from Sagami Bay to waters off the Boso Peninsula.
 関東地方では、相模湾から房総半島沖に延びる相模トラフ沿いで起きるとされる巨大地震が、強い揺れの確率を引き上げている。

Despite the urgent need for measures to cope with the situation, some municipal governments have not done enough to improve the earthquake resistance of their buildings. This is disconcerting because these facilities will be used as centers for disaster management in the event of a major earthquake.
 対策は急務だが、万一の際の防災拠点となる市庁舎でさえ、耐震化が万全でない自治体がある。

These buildings include the Yokohama city government office, which was built more than 50 years ago. There are concerns about its state of deterioration.
横浜市庁舎は、築50年以上で、老朽化が懸念されている。

We hope all local governments will study the latest seismic prediction map and make steady progress in ensuring their communities can better resist the impact of powerful earthquakes.
 予測地図を参考に、各自治体は、地震に強い街づくりをしっかりと進めてもらいたい。

Bitter lesson

A similar map was drawn up for the first time in 2005. It has been updated each year to accommodate new findings from the government’s earthquake research. The map has often been used for various purposes, including the calculation of strength for architectural design and the assessment of premium rates for earthquake insurance.
 この地図は2005年に初めて作成され、地震に関する調査研究の進展に合わせ、毎年、更新されてきた。建造物の設計強度計算や地震保険の料率算定など、日常的に活用されている。

However, the 2010 version of the map incorporated little data needed to predict a quake comparable to the Great East Japan Earthquake, which occurred the following year.
 だが、10年版の地図には、翌年の東日本大震災に関する予測が十分に盛り込まれていなかった。

With this bitter lesson in mind, the earthquake research headquarters fundamentally revamped its forecasting method. In 2012 and 2013, the organ put together tentative versions of the prediction map. Its latest version contains all findings from its seismic investigation.
 これを教訓に、根本から予測手法を見直した。12年~13年は暫定版を作成し、今回、検討内容を網羅した正式版を公表した。

In producing the latest version, the headquarters expanded the scope of the areas with estimated epicenters while also extending the scales for predicted quakes. This resulted in great increases in the perceived probability of a major earthquake striking some areas, including Saitama. The figure for the city marked a 21-point increase to 51 percent.
 想定される震源域や規模を大きくした結果、さいたま市で発生確率が21ポイント増の51%になるなど、大幅に上昇した地域もある。

The previous prediction maps were criticized by some as too technically difficult to understand. With this in mind, the headquarters has released pertinent information on its website, hoping to give detailed instructions on how to use the latest version of its prediction map.
 従来の地図は、専門的で難し過ぎるとの批判があった。今回は地震調査研究推進本部のホームページで活用法を丁寧に紹介した。

The latest map also provides data related to what kind of quake is feared to hit each region, including one with its focus just below an urban populated area and another with a gigantic earthquake originating from the coastal seabed.
直下型か、沿岸の海底を震源とする巨大地震か、各地で警戒すべき地震のタイプも示した。

A look at the map provides anyone with data on the degree of vibration originating from a strong quake in an area 250 meters square. To protect one’s life, each person should take necessary steps. Measures include making houses quake-resistant and fitting furniture items with safety devices that prevent them from tipping over.
 地図を見れば、誰でも250メートル四方の揺れの予測を確認できる。一人ひとりが、身を守るため、住宅の耐震化や家具の転倒防止などに取り組みたい。

Next year marks the 20th anniversary of the Great Hanshin Earthquake. Prior to the quake, it was said no major quake would strike the Kansai area. This caused delays in improving the quake resistance of local houses and other buildings.
 来年で発生20年となる阪神大震災の前には、「関西で大きな地震は起きない」と言われ、建造物の耐震化の遅れなどを招いた。

In this respect, unpreparedness is our greatest enemy.
 油断は禁物である。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Dec. 24, 2014)Speech

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