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2015年2月17日 (火)

社説:日銀政策委員会 「右に同じ」ばかりでは

February 16, 2015(Mainichi Japan)
Editorial: BOJ Policy Board should hold discussions from broader perspective
社説:日銀政策委員会 「右に同じ」ばかりでは

The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), the nation's central bank, consists of nine members including its governor and two vice governors. Why is the governor alone insufficient to make monetary policy?
 日銀の最高意思決定機関で金融政策を担う政策委員会は、総裁1人、副総裁2人を含む計9人で構成される。なぜ総裁1人ではだめなのか。

Any economist can make mistakes in analysis and prediction. Therefore, the board makes policy decisions to prevent serious errors in judgments and policy excesses. The system is significant in that people with diverse personal histories and knowledge gather to express and exchange opinions.
 どんなに著名な経済学者であっても、分析や予測を誤ることはある。大きな判断ミスや行き過ぎた政策を防ぐための一つの工夫が複数メンバーによる委員会制なのだ。経歴や見識などで多様な人材が集まり、意見を出し合うところに意味がある。

In early February, the government submitted a proposal to the Diet to appoint economist and Waseda University professor Yutaka Harada to replace Ryuzo Miyao, whose term as a board member expires in late March. Harada is in favor of reflation and calls for large-scale quantitative easing. He supports the ultra-easy money policy promoted by BOJ Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda, and does not appear opposed to the central bank further relaxing its monetary grip by buying yet more government bonds.
 政府は今月初め、来月下旬に審議委員の任期が切れる宮尾龍蔵氏の後任に原田泰早稲田大教授を充てる人事案を国会に示した。大規模な量的緩和を唱える「リフレ派」の経済学者で、黒田東彦総裁の下で進められてきた「異次元緩和」を支持し、国債の買い増しによる一段の追加緩和もあり得べし、との立場のようだ。

Moreover, the government needs to pick the successor of board member Yoshihisa Morimoto, whose tenure expires at the end of June. Concerns have been raised over whether the number of pro-reflation members will rise, lessening the significance of the board system.
 6月末に任期満了となる森本宜久審議委員の後任人事も控えている。リフレ派が増え、委員会制の意義がますます薄れはしないか、心配だ。

The term of Policy Board members, including the governor and vice governors, is five years. The Cabinet appoints board members after gaining approval from both houses of the Diet. Since the ruling coalition has a majority in both chambers, the government's nominations are highly likely to clear the legislature.
 総裁、副総裁と同様、日銀の審議委員(6人)の任期は5年で、衆参両院の同意を得て内閣が任命する。与党が両院で多数を占めており、政権の人事案がそのまま通る可能性は高い。

The administration of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe regards quantitative relaxation as the "first arrow" of the three arrows in its "Abenomics" economic policy mix. It may appear natural in the eyes of the general public that the government selects candidates for the BOJ Policy Board in line with its policies. However, there would be no need for so many board members if they were all to have exactly the same ideas about monetary policy. The government may have become wary when the BOJ Policy Board voted by a narrow margin to further relax its monetary grip in late October last year, with five voting for the proposal and four against.
異次元の量的緩和をアベノミクス「第一の矢」とする安倍政権だ。それに沿った人選を行うのは当然と映るかもしれないが、同じ考え方のメンバーで政策委員会を固めるのであれば、9人も要らない。昨年10月末に追加緩和を決定した際、採決が5対4とすれすれだったことに政府は危機感を抱いたのだろうか。

It is common for the opinion of the governor of the Bank of England, Britain's central bank, to be voted down by its nine-member Monetary Policy Committee. Former Bank of England Gov. Mervyn King was in a minority in five consecutive meetings of the committee, including the last meeting he attended as governor.
 日銀と同じく9人の政策委員がいる英国の中央銀行、イングランド銀行では、総裁の意見が少数派となり、委員会を通らないことも珍しくない。前総裁のキング氏は、任期最後となった会合も含め、5回連続で少数派となっている。

The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee consists of members with various backgrounds.
 メンバーの経歴も多彩だ。

Namat Shafik, one of two female members of the committee, is deputy governor and comes from Egypt.
女性2人のうちシャフィク氏は副総裁で、エジプト出身。

She had previously served as vice president of the World Bank and deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund. (Only one of the BOJ Policy Board's seats has been occupied by a woman since the revised BOJ Act came into force in 1998.)
世界銀行副総裁や国際通貨基金の副専務理事などを歴任した国際派だ(日銀は1998年の改正日銀法施行以降、女性は常に1人)。

Mark Carney, who is Canadian and once headed Canada's central bank, currently serves as governor of the Bank of England.
現在の総裁はカナダ出身で同国の中央銀行総裁も務めたカーニー氏である。

The biggest challenge that the BOJ now faces is the eventual exit from its quantitative easing policy, gradually decreasing the amount of government bonds it purchases while avoiding shocks to the financial markets.
 日銀が今後直面する最大の難題は、いかに市場の動揺を回避しながら、国債の購入額を順次縮小し、量的緩和を終了させるかだ。

If the BOJ Policy Board was dominated by pro-reflation members, it could delay such a policy change, amplify the distortion it causes the markets, and make it impossible to find an exit.
リフレ派ばかりの委員会では、政策の方向転換が遅れ、ひずみが一層増幅し、出口から出られなくなる恐れはないか。

Those who will be appointed to the BOJ Policy Board will face extremely difficult challenges that the central bank has never experienced.
 これから就任する政策委員会委員は、日銀がいまだ経験したことのない極めて難しいかじ取りを担う。

Both the executive and legislative branches of the government should cautiously select members of the panel while keeping in mind that the BOJ has entered a crucial phase, in which its Policy Board needs to have debate from a broad perspective.
政府と国会は、多角的な議論が求められる重要な時期だということを忘れず、慎重に人選を行う責任がある。

毎日新聞 2015年02月16日 02時30分

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